The fate of Donetsk, a battered but strategically vital region in eastern Ukraine, has once again emerged as the central obstacle to any agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, underscoring why peace talks remain stuck despite renewed diplomatic efforts.
A senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin said after recent talks with U.S. envoys that there was no prospect of a peace deal unless fundamental disagreements over territory were resolved. At the heart of that dispute is Donetsk, one of two regions that make up the Donbas, and a symbol-laden prize neither side appears willing—or able—to give up.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the issue would be discussed during U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, but he has repeatedly made clear that Kyiv sees no justification for surrendering territory that remains under Ukrainian control.
Why Donetsk Matters So Much
Russian forces already control nearly all of Luhansk, the other Donbas region. Donetsk, however, has proven far harder to conquer. Around 20% of the region—roughly 5,000 square kilometres—remains in Ukrainian hands, including the heavily fortified cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
These cities form the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defences, protected by trenches, bunkers, minefields and anti-tank obstacles. Ukrainian commanders see them as critical: the land west of Donetsk is flatter and far easier for Russian forces to advance across toward the Dnipro River, potentially opening the way to deeper incursions into Ukraine.
Zelenskiy has warned that handing over full control of Donetsk would give Russia a launchpad for future offensives, even if a ceasefire were reached. He has also expressed concern that Moscow would use any pause in fighting to rearm before resuming the war.
Moscow’s Position
For the Kremlin, Donetsk is not just territory—it is central to Putin’s political narrative. Moscow declared in 2022 that it had annexed Donetsk, along with three other Ukrainian regions, following referendums dismissed by Kyiv and Western governments as illegitimate.
Most of the international community continues to recognise Donetsk as part of Ukraine. Putin, however, describes it as part of Russia’s “historical lands”, and senior officials insist it must ultimately be administered by Moscow.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov has suggested Russia might deploy national guard units and police to Donbas under a peace deal rather than regular troops, an idea Ukrainian officials are unlikely to accept.
A Battlefield That Consumes Lives and Resources
Both sides have paid a heavy price fighting over Donetsk. The battle for Bakhmut, now largely destroyed, became a symbol of the war’s brutality, with tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. These losses have hardened public opinion and made compromise politically dangerous for leaders in Kyiv and Moscow alike.
Western military analysts estimate Russia could need at least another year of sustained fighting to seize the remainder of Donetsk, assuming its current pace of advance continues. Russian commanders are more optimistic. In December, General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, told Putin that Russian forces were advancing along the entire front.
Economic Stakes Beneath the Rubble
Before the war, Donetsk accounted for more than half of Ukraine’s coal and steel production, as well as major output of coke and cast iron. While much of that infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, the region also contains rare earths, titanium and zirconium, resources that could provide long-term revenue to whoever controls them.
The Political Cost of Compromise
For Zelenskiy, surrendering Donetsk would be politically explosive. The region is still home to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, many of whom have lost relatives in the fighting. A recent poll showed a majority of Ukrainians strongly oppose withdrawing troops from Donetsk, even in exchange for Western security guarantees.
Under Ukraine’s constitution, territorial changes would require a national referendum, a process Zelenskiy says he has no mandate to initiate during wartime.
The United States has floated proposals that would see Donbas turned into a demilitarised zone or free economic area, with neither Russian nor Ukrainian troops stationed there. Washington has not publicly commented on the details, and President Donald Trump, while reiterating that the war must end, has signalled frustration with Kyiv’s insistence on referendums, saying “there will be some land swapping going on.”
A War Defined by One Region
As diplomacy continues, Donetsk remains more than a line on a map. It is a military stronghold, an economic asset, and a powerful symbol shaping the legacies of both Putin and Zelenskiy.
Until its future is resolved, analysts say, the chances of a durable peace agreement remain slim.
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