No leader in the United States has approached relations with North Korea in the same manner as Donald Trump.

The former president transitioned from issuing threats of “fire and fury” against Kim Jong Un for missile tests to developing a personal rapport, engaging in a series of historic summits, and even claiming that the two had fallen “in love.”

This unexpected alliance is now poised for scrutiny. Trump is anticipated to reclaim the presidency during a time of heightened concern among the U.S. and its allies regarding Kim and the dangers posed by his regime.

Reports suggest that Pyongyang has dispatched thousands of troops and significant amounts of munitions to Russia as it continues its conflict in Ukraine, which Western leaders view as a significant escalation. Just days before Trump secured the presidency, North Korea conducted another provocative act by testing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching any part of the United States.

More assertive North Korean leader

While campaigning, Trump remarked that Kim “misses” him and suggested that North Korea would refrain from provocations upon his return to power.

However, a second Trump administration will confront a North Korean leader who is likely more assertive and potentially more perilous.

Kim, along with his military capabilities, is now strengthened by growing connections with Moscow. He has adopted a more rigid approach towards the United States and its ally South Korea following the unsuccessful diplomatic efforts of the previous Trump administration.

This development complicates the possibility of reaching an agreement aimed at curbing North Korea’s weapons program and raises concerns about whether Trump, recognized for his unpredictable foreign policy, might alter the expectations the US has for North Korea, according to experts.

During a series of meetings in 2018 and 2019 in Singapore, Hanoi, and the demilitarized zone, Trump and Kim created unprecedented visuals for both leaders.

At that time, the leader of the world’s democratic superpower was seen smiling and taking photos with an isolated autocrat, notorious for his oppressive governance and pursuit of weapons that defy international sanctions to maintain his regime.

For Trump, these meetings represented an attempt to achieve what previous US presidents have long sought: to limit Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. For Kim, they provided an opportunity to seek relief from stringent international sanctions and to gain significant recognition on the global stage.

However, the discussions concluded without any significant progress, with the abrupt termination of the 2019 summit in Hanoi being viewed by experts as a considerable loss of prestige for Kim.

Although the leaders convened again that year, experts indicate that Pyongyang has since declined to reengage with the United States and has resumed weapons testing that had seemingly been halted during the discussions. While North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test since 2017, Kim has recently pledged to significantly increase the nation’s nuclear arsenal.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, remarked, “The conditions we face in dealing with North Korea have fundamentally shifted compared to five years ago.” She highlighted the increased costs associated with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs due to advancements made since the Hanoi summit, as well as a shift in North Korea’s foreign policy following the summit’s failure, which has fostered skepticism within the North Korean leadership regarding the strategic importance of the United States.

In the past year, Kim has raised global alarm by altering North Korea’s longstanding policy towards South Korea, now labeling it a “permanent enemy.” He has urged his military to expedite war preparations in response to what he perceives as “confrontation moves” by the US, coinciding with the Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen alliances and enhance military exercises with South Korea and Japan.

Additionally, there has been a notable strengthening of ties with Russia. Since last September, Kim has met with his “closest comrade,” Russian President Vladimir Putin, on two occasions and formalized a significant defense agreement in June.

Western officials have expressed concerns about the formation of an anti-Western coalition involving China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia. This narrative, whether it materializes or not, is likely to be advantageous for Kim, who aims to diminish his country’s isolation and enhance its global influence.

According to Lee, Kim perceives greater economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from aligning North Korea with China and Russia rather than reestablishing ties with the United States, especially given the unpredictable outcomes of such engagement.

Kim’s personal rapport with Trump

This situation complicates how Trump might approach Kim and raises doubts about whether the North Korean leader would be open to further discussions, should Trump seek to revive their previous rapport.

During a talk at the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul in September, former Trump national security advisor Robert O’Brien indicated that Trump would be willing to resume negotiations with North Korea if he were to regain the presidency. However, he noted that it remains uncertain how Kim would react to renewed discussions and whether he would adhere to previous commitments regarding denuclearization, which have historically not been fulfilled. O’Brien emphasized that for the U.S., demanding anything less than complete denuclearization would be a challenging stance to maintain.

In response to Trump’s remarks about Kim missing him, North Korean state media stated over the summer that they are indifferent to who occupies the White House. The stance from Pyongyang suggests that Kim’s nuclear weapons strategy will persist regardless of developments in the United States.

However, Kim’s core objectives—gaining recognition from the U.S. as a legitimate nuclear state and obtaining sanctions relief to foster economic growth—are believed to remain intact.

This indicates that the North Korean leader might seek advantages should Trump return to power.

Although Kim views the U.S. as unreliable, Eul-Chul Lim, director of the North Korea Research Center at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) in Seoul, noted that “Trump’s reelection is likely to significantly encourage Kim Jong Un—at the very least, it would enable him to reaffirm his personal rapport with Trump and maintain communication.”

Lim also pointed out that Kim may leverage a strengthened North Korea-Russia alliance to enhance his negotiating position with the United States.

The question remains whether Trump is inclined towards negotiation and what form such a deal might take.

Some analysts have expressed concern that he might dilute U.S. demands in pursuit of a desirable agreement, or alternatively, could escalate tensions once more.

“Trump’s unpredictability is notable… and his approach during his first term may not serve as a reliable predictor of his future actions. We will need to observe whether Trump 2.0 remains committed to capping and ultimately reducing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal,” stated Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security based in Seoul.

“The most troubling scenario would be if Kim persuades Trump 2.0 to abandon denuclearization efforts and accept North Korea’s continued enhancement of its nuclear capabilities without limits,” she added.

Geopolitical Divides

The geopolitical divides that have intensified since Trump’s previous administration have significantly altered the foundation for any potential US-North Korea dialogue.

The conflict in Ukraine has not only pushed Russia closer to North Korea but has also strengthened its ties with China, the primary geopolitical adversary of the United States.

While Trump has shown admiration for Putin and expressed skepticism towards US alliances, including those with NATO, Japan, and South Korea, there are likely constraints on his ability to redefine these relationships in an effort to counteract Beijing.

Additionally, Trump will encounter a markedly different South Korea, where the conservative government led by Yoon Suk Yeol has positioned itself as a robust ally of the US in enhancing deterrence against North Korea. This administration is unlikely to support a meeting between Trump and Kim without a definitive strategy for North Korea’s denuclearization.

Edward Howell, a politics lecturer at the University of Oxford specializing in the Korean Peninsula, stated, “The chances of the US abandoning South Korea are minimal, especially considering the serious threats posed by North Korea, Russia, and China.”

He further noted, “Even if direct dialogue between leaders might lead to a temporary easing of tensions, it is hard to envision Pyongyang making any substantial concessions regarding its nuclear program, which it considers vital.”