The projected expenses for operating and modernizing America’s nuclear forces until 2034 are expected to reach $946 billion, which is 25% higher than the estimate from 2023, according to a report released by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on Thursday.
This new estimate does not account for an 81% cost overrun associated with the Sentinel, a new intercontinental ballistic missile being developed to succeed the Trident III, the backbone of the U.S. ICBM force, as noted in the report.
Analysts have indicated that this significant rise in the costs of managing and modernizing the world’s second-largest nuclear arsenal could hinder U.S. President Donald Trump’s commitment to increase the defense budget to $1 trillion by fiscal 2026. Nuclear weapons funding is shared between the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, which oversees the U.S. arsenal.
Daryl Kimball, the head of the Arms Control Association, an advocacy organization, remarked, ‘The costs of the current nuclear modernization program are escalating beyond all expectations.’
The CBO cautioned that Congress will need to determine in the coming years ‘what nuclear forces the United States should maintain in the future and the degree to which the nation will modernize.’
Trump has not yet outlined his nuclear weapons strategy or appointed senior officials to manage that strategy. Additionally, arms control discussions between Washington and Moscow have not resumed, even as the last agreement limiting the deployment of U.S. and Russian strategic forces is set to expire in less than a year.
In February, Trump expressed his opposition to the development of new U.S. nuclear weapons and criticized the high costs of sustaining the arsenal. He also showed interest in negotiating an arms control agreement with Moscow and Beijing, which is expanding its nuclear arsenal, albeit smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia.
The CBO indicated that the current plans by the Pentagon and the Department of Energy to operate U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear forces, as well as to acquire new bombers, submarines, and ICBMs, would incur an estimated cost of $946 billion, averaging $95 billion annually through 2034.
According to the report, the 2023 CBO projection estimated a total of $756 billion for the period from 2023 to 2032. The CBO indicated that this increase is primarily due to the rising expenses associated with various programs, such as the development and deployment of the Sentinel ICBM, the modernization of the Pentagon’s nuclear command, control, and communications systems, as well as enhancements to the Department of Energy’s production facilities.
Additionally, the updated projection is higher as it covers two additional years compared to the previous estimate.
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