Analysts indicate that Putin remains resolute in his goals, showing little inclination to compromise with Trump

Vladimir Putin has moved closer to his objective of mending Russia’s ties with the United States while attempting to create a rift between the U.S. and Europe, all while making only a minimal contribution to Donald Trump‘s peace initiatives regarding Ukraine.

Prior to the lengthy phone conversation between the two leaders on Tuesday, the U.S. had expressed its intention to secure Russia‘s consent for a 30-day ceasefire in the conflict—an offer that Ukraine had tentatively accepted—as an initial step toward a comprehensive peace agreement.

However, Putin consented only to a more limited ceasefire, which would see both Russia and Ukraine refrain from attacking each other’s energy infrastructure for a month. He was careful to ensure that Trump did not leave the discussion empty-handed: this marked the first occasion in over three years of conflict that both parties agreed to reduce hostilities, even temporarily. The White House announced that discussions would commence immediately regarding a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, as well as a broader ceasefire.

Halting attacks on energy facilities and at sea would impose significant limitations on Ukraine, which has dealt substantial damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure—an essential funding source for the war—and its considerably larger navy since the conflict began. Nevertheless, Russia remains free to continue its military operations on land, particularly in the western Kursk region, where it is close to expelling Ukrainian forces that had seized a portion of Russian territory during a surprise incursion last August. Putin reiterated Russia’s prerequisites for a more extensive ceasefire, insisting that it should not allow Kyiv to stockpile weapons or mobilize additional troops, terms that Ukraine has rejected.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, indicated that Putin has effectively dismissed the broader truce and is unlikely to take it seriously unless Trump follows through on his threats to impose additional economic sanctions on Russia.

“He has expressed some interest in the ceasefire, but he has outlined a series of clearly unacceptable conditions. This amounts to a ‘no’ in any other form,” Gould-Davies stated during a phone interview.

Trump’s aides portrayed the phone conversation as a success and a significant move towards achieving a ceasefire.

“Until recently, we lacked consensus on two key elements—the energy and infrastructure ceasefire and the Black Sea moratorium on firing. Today, we reached an agreement on those points, and I believe we are now relatively close to a full ceasefire,” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff shared on Fox News’ “Hannity” program.

However, Andrei Kozyrev, a pro-Western figure and former Russian foreign minister from the 1990s now living abroad, told the Dozhd news channel that Trump had accomplished nothing.

“It is entirely in Putin’s interest to prolong the war and manipulate America,” he remarked.

A Russian insider with ties to the Kremlin informed Reuters: “Putin is exerting pressure on Trump and will persist with the conflict. The Ukrainians will gradually withdraw and continue to lose both territory and personnel.”

DRONE ATTACKS

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Kyiv was prepared to endorse a pause on energy strikes; however, within hours, both sides were blaming each other for initiating new attacks. Analysts noted that even if a limited ceasefire regarding energy strikes were to hold, it would not signify a significant concession from Putin. In exchange for ceasing the bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, he would gain a break from the ongoing drone assaults on some of Russia’s largest oil refineries, which have already resulted in a loss of 3.3 million tons—or 4%—of Russia’s total refining capacity since the beginning of the year, according to estimates from Reuters.

Kozyrev remarked that Putin had not sacrificed anything by agreeing to the energy ceasefire, which he described as “very vague.” He added, “Moreover, this is certainly not what Trump was referring to, nor what he requested, and it does not align with what the Ukrainians consented to, which was a complete ceasefire. This is merely a ceasefire targeting specific sites, not what was originally sought.” In its summary of the call, the Kremlin indicated that the presidents had agreed to persist in their efforts to resolve the conflict “in a bilateral format,” a strategy that raises concerns for Ukraine and its European allies, who fear that Trump might negotiate a deal with Putin that excludes them and leaves them exposed in the future.

The two leaders also explored broader avenues for potential collaboration, particularly in the Middle East and concerning nuclear proliferation and security, emphasizing the “special responsibility” of both Russia and the U.S. to maintain global stability.

This aligns with Putin’s strategy to reinstate Russia as a key diplomatic player alongside the United States, engaging in negotiations on equal terms after years of U.S.-led efforts to isolate and sanction Moscow.

“This represents a significant achievement for Putin, as he successfully shifts bilateral relations away from being solely influenced by the Ukrainian conflict,” noted political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

Gould-Davies pointed out that it is evident Putin, who has also hinted at lucrative business opportunities with American firms, “aims to engage exclusively with the U.S.” in a bid to create a rift between Washington and its NATO partners. “This situation compels Europe to rapidly mobilize its own defense resources while trying to mitigate the ongoing decoupling,” he added.