Chinese warships have been navigating around Australia’s coastline for over three weeks, coming within 200 miles of Sydney and conducting unprecedented live-fire exercises in collaboration with New Zealand.
These drills, which were carried out without prior notification, have raised significant concerns in both countries. The presence of China’s military might is no longer limited to the far-off waters of the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait—areas where territorial tensions have intensified under Xi Jinping—but is now a pressing issue much closer to home.
Additionally, Chinese naval vessels have been spotted near Vietnam and Taiwan, demonstrating China’s naval capabilities in the Pacific, which often unsettles US allies.
China has remained defiant, asserting that its actions are in accordance with international law, with state media suggesting that Western nations should acclimate to the presence of Chinese warships in nearby waters.
Historically, Washington’s allies have found reassurance in their strong relationships with the US. However, this sentiment has shifted following Donald Trump’s controversial meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his subsequent decision to suspend aid to Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia.
This incident in the Oval Office has heightened concerns among nations across the Pacific: If the US is prepared to abandon Ukraine—effectively rewarding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Europe—might it also do the same in Asia when confronted with an assertive Beijing?
Trump’s alignment with Russia and his dismissive attitude towards Europe—characterized by a transactional mindset that Singapore’s defense minister compared to a “landlord seeking rent”—has intensified concerns in the Indo-Pacific region. Many countries in this area depend on the US to counteract Chinese assertiveness.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, noted, “This raises questions about the US’s commitment to regional security. Even if the US remains engaged, what will the Trump administration demand in return?”
Experts argue that this is a legitimate concern for allies who have historically depended on the US for security guarantees, allowing them to minimize their own defense expenditures.
They suggest that now may be an opportune moment for American allies, such as Australia and New Zealand, to reassess their defense budgets and strengthen regional partnerships with other nations that could be vulnerable as Trump continues his “America first” policy.
‘Test of resolve’
Australia has taken steps to ensure global awareness of China’s activities in international waters within the South Pacific, providing daily updates on the locations of Australian Navy vessels and surveillance aircraft.
Defense Minister Richard Marles stated that the information would be scrutinized to ascertain China’s actions and the implications behind them.
China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, asserted that China does not pose a threat to Australia while indicating that more naval visits should be anticipated. “As a major power in this region, it is normal for China to deploy its vessels to various areas for different activities,” Xiao told Australia’s public broadcaster, the ABC.
Meanwhile, in Washington, Trump was conveying a message to US allies in Europe, urging them to increase military expenditures in support of Ukraine.
Prior to his contentious meeting with Zelensky, Trump had planned to finalize a mineral resources agreement with the Ukrainian president, aiming for the U.S. to recover some of the expenses incurred from its aid to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. However, the signing ceremony was ultimately called off, with Trump advising Zelensky on his social media platform, Truth Social, to “return when he is prepared for Peace.”
By subsequently halting military assistance to Ukraine, Trump aimed to compel affluent European nations to take on a greater share of the burden, according to experts.
“He believes they have been benefiting from the United States without contributing for the past fifty years,” stated Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
This strategy appeared to yield results when, on Tuesday, the European Union announced a plan allowing member states to borrow €150 billion ($158 billion) to enhance their defense budgets and significantly increase military support for Kyiv.
Dean asserts that Trump desires a peace agreement in Ukraine; however, he overlooks Zelensky’s apprehensions regarding the sustainability of that peace without measures to restrain Putin.
“It seems that (Trump) is inclined towards achieving peace at any cost, rather than a just and lasting peace,” he remarked. “The critical question is, what does the agreement entail? That is the concern for many. What concessions is he prepared to make?”
As Trump disrupts the transatlantic alliance—a cornerstone of Western security for decades—his administration has indicated a desire for the U.S. to conclude conflicts in other regions to concentrate on countering China in the Pacific.
The urgency of this objective was underscored by China’s recent demonstrations of military strength.
“It’s undoubtedly a test of resolve,” commented Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at RSIS in Singapore, regarding China’s military exercises. “China is establishing a sphere of influence in the Pacific to gauge whether regional countries will oppose it.”
AUKUS: What is it?
Prior to the confrontation between Trump and Zelensky, the presence of Chinese naval vessels along Australia’s southern coastline had shifted the nation’s focus towards AUKUS, its significant security partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom.
Doubts arose regarding the deal’s stability under the unpredictable nature of Trump’s administration when a British journalist inquired if the US president had discussed AUKUS with his UK counterpart.
“What does that mean?” Trump responded. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later downplayed the incident, attributing it to a misunderstanding of accents. “I think we’re going to have to limit the questions to Americans he can understand,” he remarked.
According to Dean from the University of Sydney, it may not be detrimental that Trump was unfamiliar with the acronym, as the agreement enjoys strong backing from his key advisors.
This backing was reinforced by Australia’s initial investment of $500 million aimed at enhancing American submarine production, with the understanding that some nuclear-powered submarines will be provided to Australia to strengthen its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Dean noted that this is precisely the type of agreement Trump would be inclined to prioritize moving forward.
“He aims to generate revenue for the United States and secure more advantageous deals. AUKUS serves as a prime example of such a deal for them,” Dean stated.
“For European nations, I wouldn’t underestimate Trump’s perspective on this; if Australia can achieve this, why can’t you?”
No leniency for those who benefit without contributing
In the Pacific region, US allies expressed concern over the unprecedented events unfolding in the Oval Office.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adopted a measured stance on Monday, stating he had “no intention of taking sides” when questioned about the confrontation between Trump and Zelensky.
However, he committed to doing everything possible to “sustain US engagement and foster unity” among the Group of Seven nations, indicating rising apprehension regarding the weakening of the Western alliance.
“Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia,” he remarked. “We must also contemplate steadily enhancing our deterrent capabilities to avert conflict.”
Japan, which faces territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea, has voiced concerns over the increasing military activities of China in its adjacent waters. Last year marked the first instance of a Chinese aircraft carrier entering Japan’s contiguous waters.
South Korea, another US ally in East Asia, refrained from commenting on the Trump-Zelensky meeting but indicated it was closely observing the US’s halt of military assistance to Ukraine.
Trump has consistently urged allies like South Korea to contribute more towards the costs of US troops stationed on their soil. In a speech to Congress on Wednesday, he once again issued a subtle warning regarding what he termed unfair tariffs imposed by South Korea on US products—an assertion that Seoul disputes.
“We provide extensive military and various other forms of assistance to South Korea. But this is the reality, occurring with both friends and adversaries,” Trump stated.
In Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that China aims to eventually incorporate, Defense Minister Wellington Koo sought to instill confidence amid what he characterized as “rapid and bizarre changes” in the global environment.
During a press briefing on Tuesday, he expressed his belief that the United States will maintain its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, as it is integral to its core interests. He highlighted the shared goals between Taiwan and Washington in areas such as economic growth, geopolitics, and military security.
Koo also acknowledged the implications of Trump’s “America first” policy. “In the realm of international politics, we understand that discussions about values must also encompass discussions about interests. Naturally, the United States must prioritize its own national interests,” he remarked.
Analysts indicate that the US has grown increasingly frustrated with countries that do not contribute adequately to their own defense.
“The Trump administration has clearly demonstrated its intolerance for free riders,” noted Thompson from RSIS in Singapore.
He added, “The nations that grasp this message quickly and clearly are likely to become the United States’ most reliable partners. The US is not abandoning its allies; rather, it is focusing on those that are most capable.”
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