Armed conflict has emerged as the foremost risk for 2025, according to a survey released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wednesday. This finding underscores the increasing global fragmentation as government and business leaders prepare for their annual meeting in Davos next week.

Nearly 25% of over 900 experts from academia, business, and policy-making identified conflict, including wars and terrorism, as the most significant threat to economic growth in the coming year.

Extreme weather, which was the primary concern in 2024, ranks as the second most pressing danger. WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek emphasized in a statement accompanying the report that in a world characterized by growing divides and interconnected risks, global leaders face a critical choice: to promote collaboration and resilience or to confront escalating instability. “The stakes have never been higher,” he stated.

The WEF event is set to commence on January 20, with Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States, scheduled to address the gathering virtually on January 23. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is also expected to attend and deliver a speech on January 21, as confirmed by WEF organizers.

Advisers to Trump have acknowledged that the conflict in Ukraine may take months or longer to resolve, presenting a stark contrast to his commitment to negotiate a peace deal on his first day in office, as reported by Reuters.

Other notable global leaders attending the Davos meeting include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang. The gathering will also focus on the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, the ongoing crisis in Syria, and the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, according to WEF President and CEO Borge Brende.

Negotiators were finalizing the last aspects of a potential ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, following extensive discussions in Qatar. According to a recent survey, the threat of misinformation and disinformation was identified as the most significant global risk for the next two years, maintaining the same ranking as in 2024.

Over a decade-long perspective, environmental threats were highlighted as the primary concern among experts. The survey indicated that extreme weather events ranked as the foremost long-term global risk, followed by biodiversity loss, critical alterations to Earth’s systems, and a depletion of natural resources.

Last year, global temperatures surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels for the first time, bringing the world closer to violating the commitments made by governments under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The survey defines a global risk as a situation that could adversely impact a substantial portion of global GDP, population, or natural resources. Experts were consulted in September and October. A significant majority of respondents, 64%, anticipate that a multipolar and fragmented global order will continue.