Iran-supported militias in Iraq are prepared to disarm in order to avoid angering Trump

Several influential militia groups in Iraq, backed by Iran, are considering disarmament for the first time to prevent an escalation of conflict with the U.S. administration under Trump, as reported by ten senior commanders and Iraqi officials to Reuters.

This initiative to ease tensions comes after U.S. officials have repeatedly warned the Iraqi government since Trump assumed office in January, according to sources that include six local commanders from four prominent militias.

The officials conveyed to Baghdad that if the government did not take steps to disband the militias operating within its borders, the U.S. might resort to airstrikes against these groups. Izzat al-Shahbndar, a senior Shi’ite politician affiliated with Iraq’s ruling coalition, informed Reuters that negotiations between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and various militia leaders are “very advanced,” indicating a willingness among the groups to heed U.S. disarmament requests.

“The factions are not being obstinate or insisting on maintaining their current status,” he stated, noting that the groups are “fully aware” of the potential for U.S. targeting.

The six militia commanders, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the situation, represent the Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada, and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa factions. A commander from Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful Shi’ite militia, remarked, “Trump is prepared to escalate the conflict with us, and we want to avoid such a dire scenario,” while speaking behind a black face mask and sunglasses.

The commanders indicated that their primary ally, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has authorized them to make any necessary decisions to steer clear of a potentially devastating conflict with the United States and Israel.

The militias are affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of approximately 10 hardline Shi’ite armed groups that together have around 50,000 fighters and possess weaponry that includes long-range missiles and anti-aircraft systems, as reported by two security officials monitoring militia activities. This Resistance group is a crucial component of Iran’s network of regional proxy forces and has taken responsibility for numerous missile and drone strikes against Israel and U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since the onset of the Gaza conflict about 18 months ago.

Farhad Alaaeldin, the foreign affairs adviser to Prime Minister Sudani, informed Reuters that the prime minister is dedicated to ensuring that all weapons in Iraq are under state control through “constructive dialogue with various national actors” in response to inquiries regarding disarmament discussions.

According to the two Iraqi security officials, Sudani is advocating for the disarmament of all militias within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which pledge their loyalty to Iran’s IRGC or Quds Force rather than the Iraqi government. Since mid-January, some groups have significantly reduced their presence in major cities like Mosul and Anbar and have vacated their headquarters due to concerns about potential airstrikes, as noted by officials and commanders.

Additionally, many commanders have heightened their security protocols during this period, frequently changing their mobile phones, vehicles, and residences. The U.S. State Department has reiterated its call for Baghdad to take control of the militias, stating, “These forces must respond to Iraq’s commander-in-chief and not to Iran.”

An anonymous American official warned that there have been previous occasions when militias halted their attacks due to U.S. pressure, expressing doubt that any disarmament would be sustainable in the long run. The IRGC chose not to comment on this article, and both the Iranian and Israeli foreign ministries did not respond to inquiries.

SHAKEN: IRAN’S AXIS OF RESISTANCE

Shahbndar, a Shi’ite politician, indicated that the Iraqi government has not yet reached a final agreement with militant leaders, as discussions regarding a disarmament mechanism are still ongoing. He mentioned that potential options include transforming these groups into political parties and incorporating them into the Iraqi armed forces.

Although the outcome of the disarmament process remains unclear, these discussions represent the first instance where the militias have shown a willingness to yield to longstanding Western demands for demilitarization.

This development occurs at a critical juncture for Tehran’s regional “Axis of Resistance,” which has been built over decades at significant cost to counter Israel and U.S. influence, yet has been notably weakened since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which escalated tensions in the Middle East.

Since the onset of the Gaza conflict, both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have faced intense assaults from Israel, while the Houthi movement in Yemen has been subjected to U.S. airstrikes since last month. Additionally, the decline of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another vital ally of Iran, has further diminished the Islamic Republic’s regional influence.

Iraq is striving to maintain a delicate balance in its relationships with both the United States and Iran as it navigates the complexities of militia activity within its borders. These militias emerged throughout the country, bolstered by Iranian financial and military assistance in the tumultuous aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein. They have since evolved into powerful entities capable of matching the national army in terms of firepower.

On March 16, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth communicated with Prime Minister Sudani, shortly after American strikes against the Houthis commenced. He urged the Prime Minister to prevent these militias from launching retaliatory attacks on Israel and U.S. military installations in the region in support of their allies, as reported by two government officials and two security sources familiar with the conversation.

The militias based in Iraq have conducted numerous drone and rocket assaults against Israel in solidarity with Hamas since the onset of the Gaza conflict, and they were responsible for the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in a drone strike in Jordan near the Syrian border last year.

Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, a former political advisor to Sudani, stated on Iraqi state television that the United States has consistently urged Iraq’s leadership to disband Shi’ite militias. However, he suggested that this time, Washington may not accept a refusal. “If we do not comply voluntarily, it may be imposed on us from outside, potentially through force.”