A strong sense of déjà vu is expected when French President Emmanuel Macron showers praise on Donald Trump during his visit to Paris this weekend.

During Trump’s tenure as the 45th president, few foreign leaders were as eager to win his favor as Macron. Notably, Macron’s extravagant treatment of Trump at a Bastille Day parade on the Champs-Élysées left such an impression that Trump returned home advocating for a similar military parade on July Fourth.

As Trump prepares to assume the role of the 47th president, Macron has outdone himself by inviting Trump to the highly anticipated unveiling of the newly restored Notre Dame Cathedral, five years after it was ravaged by fire.

By placing Trump at the forefront of this star-studded VIP event, which signifies his significant return to the international arena, it underscores the resurgence of influence for the president-elect just six weeks prior to the commencement of his second term.

Trump is not delaying his new foreign policy initiatives until January; he has already threatened a trade conflict with Canada and Mexico, demonstrating his authority when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hurried to Florida to placate him last week. Additionally, he issued a stark warning on Monday, stating that there would be “ALL HELL TO PAY” in the Middle East if Hamas fails to release hostages in Gaza before Inauguration Day.

Trump’s prominent role in Paris will also serve as a striking contrast to Joe Biden’s increasingly troubled farewell. The president faced intense backlash on Monday, even from members of his own party, after he pardoned his son Hunter, undermining a fundamental principle of his administration—that all individuals are equal under the law.

Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine remarked to CNN’s Manu Raju, “He didn’t have to explicitly tell the American public, ‘I will not do this,’ yet he did. When you make a promise, it’s essential to uphold it.” Meanwhile, Utah Republican Senator Mitt Romney expressed his disapproval, stating, “It was a dreadful decision that left me feeling heartbroken.”

The announcement of Trump’s trip to Paris coincided with President Biden’s arrival in Angola for an official visit, which is expected to be significantly more substantive than Trump’s excursion. Biden aims to emphasize the United States’ commitment to sub-Saharan Africa amid China’s investment-driven influence in the region. Unlike Biden, Trump did not visit Africa during his presidency and appeared more focused on disparaging the continent rather than offering assistance. Biden’s trip will also highlight one of the most effective U.S. global initiatives in recent decades—the extensive program combating HIV/AIDS in Africa, which faces an uncertain future should Trump return to the White House.

However, the president-elect’s more prominent visit to the City of Light will underscore his renewed appeal to foreign leaders, contrasting with Biden’s diminishing presence on the global stage.

Trump’s victory posed a significant challenge for global leaders.

Most importantly, Trump’s upcoming trip will underscore the challenge that every world leader is currently facing: how to engage with a new American president who is likely to adopt a more aggressive and unpredictable approach on the international front than during his previous tumultuous term, often favoring relationships with authoritarian leaders over traditional allies.

The president-elect is enjoying his resurgence in the international arena following the announcement of Macron’s invitation on Monday. “President Emmanuel Macron has done an exceptional job restoring Notre Dame to its former glory and beyond. It will be a truly memorable day for everyone!” Trump shared on his Truth Social platform.

This trip offers the president-elect everything he values most: an opportunity to capture the limelight, the admiration of being a distinguished guest, and the excitement of participating in a remarkable event likely to draw millions of viewers worldwide.

It also represents the kind of bold move for which Macron is recognized, although such initiatives can sometimes backfire. For instance, his earlier decision to call for snap parliamentary elections resulted in a significant political crisis in France.

Macron’s invitation is part of the ongoing competition among European nations to establish themselves as the primary link to Washington. He has consistently aimed to position France as the leading European power, particularly following the departure of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was in Washington on Monday night promoting her memoirs alongside former President Barack Obama, who in 2016 urged her to safeguard the West from Trump.

Trump’s anticipated return has generated a similar sense of unease among Western nations, who fear he may abandon Ukraine to appease his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially with growing concerns that he might impose substantial tariffs on the European Union. There are also worries that Trump could weaken NATO during his second term, having previously stated on the campaign trail that he would inform Russia it could act “however it wants” towards alliance members that fail to meet defense spending requirements.

Macron appears to have gained an advantage over his competitors by leveraging symbolism and conducting a foreign visit prior to Trump’s return to office. In Germany, there is minimal competition, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz is likely to follow Biden into political obscurity after the collapse of his governing coalition, with elections scheduled for February. The new British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, is in a stronger position but faces challenges due to Trump’s unpopularity within his Labour Party. Additionally, Britain’s influence in Europe has diminished following its departure from the EU, a move that resonated with Trump and foreshadowed his 2016 electoral success. In a significant foreign policy address on Monday night, Starmer dismissed the notion that the UK must choose between its alliances with the United States and Europe, a dilemma some analysts worry Trump may impose. He also referenced his dinner with Trump in September, just weeks before the US election, stating, “When President Trump graciously hosted me for dinner in Trump Tower, I told him that we will invest more deeply than ever in this transatlantic bond with our American friends in the years to come.”

Despite his unpopularity as he enters the latter part of his second term, Macron is not the influential leader he once was. His invitation to Trump carries a sense of irony, as the far-right National Rally Party, which aligns with Trump, poses a threat to Prime Minister Michel Barnier, potentially further destabilizing Macron’s presidency. There are increasing indications that Macron’s legacy may parallel Biden’s, as both leaders could be compelled to cede power to the very nationalist and populist movements they sought to oppose. Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader whose anti-immigrant stance mirrors Trump’s, may have a significant opportunity to navigate France’s two-round presidential election system and secure victory in 2027.

How the initial bromance took a turn for the worse

Macron’s bold new approach towards Trump is expected to elicit a wave of mutual admiration. However, based on past experiences, such goodwill may be short-lived.

Initially, the Macrons and the Trumps enjoyed a lavish dinner at the Michelin-starred Jules Verne restaurant in the Eiffel Tower, shared intimate moments at the Bastille Day parade, and exchanged kisses and hand-holding at the White House. During a meeting in the Oval Office in April 2018, Trump remarked, “We have to make him perfect, he is perfect,” while brushing what he claimed was dandruff off the French president’s shoulder. He also assured the French people that “Emmanuel will go down as one of your great presidents.”

Nonetheless, the camaraderie was fleeting, as Trump’s antagonism towards Europe soon became apparent. The relationship deteriorated significantly during a visit by the US president to France later that year. Trump reacted negatively to Macron’s advocacy for a European army—an ironic response to Trump’s repeated grievances about American taxpayers funding European defense. He deemed the proposal “very insulting,” ridiculed Macron’s “very low approval rating in France, 26%,” and expressed support for Macron’s nationalist opponents.

While Trump appears willing to attempt a renewed friendship, Macron—who, like Biden, positions himself as a defender of democracy and a counter to far-right nationalism—does not hold the title of Trump’s preferred European leader. That distinction goes to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a regular visitor at Mar-a-Lago, whose strategies for undermining democracy, limiting press freedom, and politicizing the judiciary align more closely with Trump’s preferences. “Some people don’t like him because he’s too strong,” Trump stated at a rally in New Hampshire during his primary campaign in January. “It’s good to have a strong man at the head of a country.”

Both Macron and Trump value the significance of relationships with foreign leaders, suggesting a potential opportunity to revive their initial connection.

Trump is set to arrive in Paris shortly after appointing Charles Kushner, his daughter Ivanka’s father-in-law, as the new US ambassador to France. While some may view this choice as a slight to America’s longstanding diplomatic ties—given Kushner’s past conviction for tax evasion and witness tampering, followed by a pardon from Trump—the French have long mastered the art of diplomatic subtlety. In this context, Kushner’s selection could also be interpreted as a gesture of respect, as he is family to Trump and thus has his attention.

Additionally, Kushner’s appointment might provide Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner, who currently reside in Florida, with an opportunity to re-enter the upper echelons of the global diplomatic scene, a stark contrast to their previous life in Manhattan, where the Trump name has become less favorable among elite liberal circles.