The United States, along with Ukraine and South Korea, has this week accused North Korea of sending troops, potentially numbering in the thousands, to support Russia in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to the three nations, most of these troops remain stationed in Russia, and the U.S. has indicated that their ultimate destination and role in the war are still uncertain. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have refuted these allegations.

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WHAT ARE THE ALLEGATIONS?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has claimed that North Korea is deploying officers to Russian-occupied regions and is preparing to send up to 12,000 soldiers to bolster Moscow’s military efforts. “I believe they sent officers first to assess the situation before deploying troops,” Zelenskiy stated to the press.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea has dispatched approximately 3,000 troops, including special forces, to Russia’s Far East for training and acclimatization at military installations, likely in preparation for combat operations in the conflict.

Additionally, South Korean intelligence has utilized AI facial recognition technology to identify a group of North Korean officers visiting frontline areas in Ukraine, providing guidance on the North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles being launched at targets in the region. Among the delegation was a significant figure in North Korea’s missile program, identified by analysts from Seoul-based NK PRO as Ri Song Jin, who was seen in photographs last year alongside leader Kim Jong Un at missile production facilities.

Russian Pacific Fleet vessels were observed transporting North Korean special forces to Vladivostok between October 8 and 13, with expectations that this operation will continue shortly, according to the National Intelligence Service (NIS). The troops have reportedly received Russian military uniforms, weaponry, and counterfeit identification documents in preparation for their deployment in combat.

WHY WOULD NORTH KOREA ASSIST RUSSIA?

President Vladimir Putin has indicated that a treaty signed with Kim Jong Un during his June visit to Pyongyang includes a mutual assistance provision, allowing both nations to support each other against external threats.

Experts suggest that North Korea stands to gain from supplying arms and troops, as it would provide valuable battlefield experience and insights. Additionally, amid heavy sanctions due to its nuclear weapons program, North Korea appears to be receiving significant oil and other imports from Russia, as indicated by foreign intelligence and commercial satellite imagery analyzed by experts. A report from a think tank linked to South Korea’s NIS estimated that the financially struggling North generated approximately $540 million in revenue from arms sales to Russia last year.

WHAT WAS THE REATION FROM WEST?

The response to the situation has been notable. A spokesperson for the Kremlin has labeled the claims regarding North Korean troops in Ukraine as “fake news,” while a North Korean representative at the United Nations in New York referred to these assertions as “groundless rumors.” On Monday, South Korea formally protested the troop deployment to the Russian ambassador. Additionally, Seoul is contemplating a series of countermeasures, which may include reevaluating its policy on supplying weapons to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Germany and Austria summoned North Korea’s senior diplomats in their respective countries to express their concerns. Leaders from Britain and Finland have indicated that the involvement of North Korean troops by Russia would reflect a state of desperation.

What Challenges Do North Korean Troops Pose to Ukraine?

According to South Korea, Ukraine, the United States, and independent analysts, Russia has launched numerous ballistic missiles manufactured in North Korea and has acquired substantial quantities of artillery shells and anti-tank rockets. Military experts express uncertainty regarding the integration of North Korean troops into the battlefield, suggesting that, similar to the weaponry, their presence is unlikely to significantly alter the course of the conflict but may extend its duration.

“Russia’s operational theater has broadened considerably, and with Ukrainian forces advancing even into Russian territory, North Korean troops could assist in countering such movements,” stated Kim Yong-hyun from Dongguk University in South Korea. “Although North Korea’s participation may not be a turning point for Russia, it could still offer valuable assistance.”