The United States and NATO confirmed on Wednesday that a significant number of North Korean troops, potentially numbering in the thousands, have been sent to Russia, raising concerns that they may be deployed to combat in Ukraine. Analysts caution that this move could have unintended consequences, as these troops may become aware of their role as mere “cannon fodder,” which could lead to defections—something that Kim Jong-un fears the most.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated on Wednesday that there is evidence of North Korean troops in Russia, marking the first official acknowledgment of a report from South Korea’s intelligence agency (NIS) dated October 18. This report indicated that North Korea is providing manpower to support Moscow, with an initial deployment of approximately 1,500 soldiers to Russia’s Far East for training in trench warfare. According to NIS, these troop transfers occurred between October 8 and 13, with further deployments anticipated soon.
“This situation is extremely serious,” Austin remarked.
Shortly thereafter, NATO also verified the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.
“If these forces are intended for combat in Ukraine, it would represent a notable escalation in North Korea’s backing of Russia’s unlawful military actions and further highlight Russia’s considerable losses on the battlefield,” stated NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah.
This development coincides with reports from South Korean lawmakers indicating that the number of North Korean troops has increased to as many as 3,000, with projections suggesting the total could reach around 10,000.
Immediate desertions?
On October 15, just a week after the initial arrival of North Korean soldiers in Russia, Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne reported that hundreds of these troops had been stationed near the front lines in Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk regions, approximately seven kilometers from the Ukrainian border. According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, 18 of these soldiers had already deserted their posts.
Subsequent reports from Ukrainian media indicated that the troops fled their positions after being left in a forested area without food or guidance from their Russian commanders. They were later located and apprehended by Russian forces.
While these reports have not been independently verified, they highlight a significant challenge that Moscow and Pyongyang may encounter in integrating North Korean soldiers into the Russian military: their unfamiliarity with the outside world beyond Kim’s North Korea.
The truth behind the deception
Hugh Griffiths, a UN sanctions expert and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea, stated that individuals will encounter circumstances that reveal the truth behind the deception. He emphasized that the harsh realities of warfare, coupled with the challenges of keeping North Korean troops isolated from Russian forces, will significantly alter their perspectives.
He pointed out that while North Korea boasts one of the largest military forces globally, with millions technically in service, the quality of this army is questionable. It relies heavily on numbers, and its soldiers lack real combat experience. Griffiths remarked that Kim Jong-un’s narrative of North Korea being “invincible” is likely to be the first illusion shattered, which will adversely affect troop morale.
He predicted that Ukrainian forces would target them, leading to visible North Korean losses. Such outcomes are unprecedented in North Korea, where the narrative typically does not include their soldiers facing defeat or failing to advance toward Kyiv alongside Russian tanks. The situation is expected to unfold unfavorably for them.
The significance of a discarded cigarette
Furthermore, North Korean soldiers will encounter new freedoms that they have never experienced or even been aware of before.
“They cannot be confined in the same manner as they are during peacetime, which means they will interact with Russians who enjoy a slightly better quality of life and have access to mobile phones and social media platforms like Telegram,” Griffiths explained. He emphasized that something as trivial as obtaining a Russian cigarette could significantly alter a North Korean soldier’s perspective, effectively “contaminating” their restricted worldview.
“Russian cigarettes are of superior quality compared to North Korean ones. Thus, this would represent a luxury for them.”
Additionally, Griffiths pointed out that the North Korean forces will be the ones thrust into the brutal realities of war, with little regard from the Russians for their basic needs such as food and water. “They will not receive proper treatment and will be utilized as expendable resources.”
This situation, he noted, will instill fear.
“They will come to understand that this is a one-way journey, which will likely lead to instances of desertion and defection.”
Kim’s Greatest Fear
Edward Howell, a Korea Foundation fellow at Chatham House and the author of “North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order,” stated that defections represent one of Kim’s most significant fears, as they undermine the legitimacy of his regime.
“Numerous elite and non-elite North Koreans who choose to defect often begin by acknowledging that the regime’s portrayal of the outside world is fundamentally deceptive,” he explained.
He further questioned how North Korea has historically responded to defections, alluding to the assassination of Kim’s half-brother at a Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017 and the stringent domestic controls implemented since Kim assumed power in 2011.
Nevertheless, defections among the military personnel, who are typically selected for their youth and adherence to Kim’s directives, cannot be entirely dismissed. “For many soldiers, the prospect of defection is likely still a consideration,” he noted.
Pariah nations uniting
However, Howell suggests that Kim likely considered this aspect prior to his decision to support the Russian military with his own forces. In June, Kim formalized a mutual defense agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Analysts describe this as the most significant pact between the two nations since the Cold War, featuring a provision that mandates both parties to utilize “all available means” to offer immediate military support to each other in the event of conflict.
“The advantages for North Korea are too substantial for them to reconsider their decision to send troops to Russia,” he stated, highlighting the financial aid, food supplies, military support, and satellite technology that the isolated state is receiving from Russia in return.
“The primary objective of the North Korean regime is to be recognized as a leader of a de facto nuclear power,” he added.
Griffiths also pointed out that the potential for North Korean defections could carry significant consequences.
“I believe this is a miscalculation. The outcomes will not be favorable for either Kim or Putin.”
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