South Asia at a Critical Juncture: Unveiling the Military Dynamics Between India and Pakistan in 2025

The comparison of military capabilities between India and Pakistan in 2025 illustrates a multifaceted relationship involving personnel, equipment, financial resources, nuclear arsenals, and strategic military doctrines.

Both countries, enduring adversaries with a history of conflict since their 1947 partition, possess substantial military forces influenced by their geopolitical situations. The following is a comprehensive analysis of critical areas, based on available data and a thorough evaluation of their military strengths.

Overall Military Ranking and Power Index According to the Global Firepower Index (GFP) 2025, which assesses 145 countries using over 60 criteria (including manpower, equipment, finances, and geography), India and Pakistan are ranked as follows:

India: 4th in the world with a Power Index (PwrIndx) score of 0.1184 (where lower scores signify stronger military capabilities).

Pakistan: 12th in the world with a PwrIndx score of 0.2513.

Analysis: India’s superior ranking is indicative of its larger population, greater defense expenditure, and more comprehensive military resources. Conversely, Pakistan, while possessing a capable military, encounters limitations due to its smaller economy and dependence on foreign suppliers, notably China.

Pakistan’s strategic emphasis on countering India enables it to sustain a competitive advantage in certain domains. Manpower plays a vital role in conventional warfare, particularly for both India and Pakistan, due to their substantial populations and dependence on ground forces.

India boasts a population of approximately 1.4 billion, ranking second globally, with around 662 million available manpower. Annually, about 23.96 million individuals reach military age, the highest in the world. The active military personnel number around 1.46 million, placing India second globally, while reserve personnel total approximately 1.16 million, ranking seventh. Additionally, India has about 2.53 million paramilitary forces, making its total military strength around 5.1 million, which includes active, reserve, and paramilitary forces.

In contrast, Pakistan has a population of about 252 million, ranking fifth globally, with around 108 million available manpower. Each year, approximately 4.79 million individuals reach military age, ranking third globally. Pakistan’s active personnel count is around 654,000, placing it seventh globally, with reserve personnel numbering about 650,000. Although paramilitary forces are not explicitly quantified in the Global Firepower index, they are significant, including the Rangers and Frontier Corps.

Overall, India’s manpower advantage is substantial, with more than double the active personnel and considerably larger reserve and paramilitary forces.

India’s substantial population offers a vast pool of potential military recruits, with nearly five times as many individuals reaching military age each year compared to Pakistan.

In contrast, Pakistan relies on a significant portion of its population committed to military service and utilizes irregular forces, such as the ‘Mujahids,’ coordinated by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to enhance its conventional military capabilities.

Defense Budget

Military expenditure is indicative of a country’s capacity to sustain and modernize its armed forces.

India:

Defense Budget (2025-26): Approximately $79 billion (Rs 6.8 lakh crore), reflecting a 9.5% increase from the previous year.
Global Ranking: Among the top three military spenders, following the US and China.
Percentage of GDP: Approximately 2.1% (based on 2018 data, likely similar in 2025).

Pakistan:

Defense Budget (2025-26): Estimated at $10-12 billion (Rs 2,281 billion PKR).
Global Ranking: Not classified in the top tier, limited by economic constraints.
Percentage of GDP: Approximately 3.6% (based on 2018 data, likely higher due to economic downturn).
Foreign Military Assistance: Received around $100 million in 2018, mainly from the US and China.
Analysis: India’s defense budget is roughly 6-8 times larger than that of Pakistan, allowing for greater investment in advanced technologies, infrastructure, and modernization of forces (such as Rafale jets and S-400 systems). Conversely, Pakistan’s smaller budget is under significant pressure, with considerable funds allocated to maintaining a large standing army and its nuclear arsenal.

Pakistan’s economic challenges and dependence on foreign assistance hinder its ability to compete with India’s scale, although support from China enhances its military capabilities.

Ground forces

Ground forces play a crucial role in the India-Pakistan conflicts due to their extensive 3,323 km border and a history of conventional warfare (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999).

India

India possesses approximately 4,614 tanks, ranking 6th globally, with key platforms including the T-90S Bhishma, indigenous Arjun Mk1A, and T-72 Ajeya. Its armored vehicle fleet consists of around 151,248 units, featuring platforms like BMP-2 Sarath IFVs and Mahindra Armado ALSV.

The artillery comprises about 9,719 pieces, including 155mm howitzers and rocket systems, with notable systems such as the indigenous Dhanush, M777 Ultra-Light Howitzer, and Pinaka MBRL.

India’s special forces, including Para SF, Ghatak Force, and MARCOS, are recognized for their rigorous training standards.

Additionally, military engineering capabilities are strengthened by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) and the Corps of Engineers.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s military capabilities include approximately 3,742 tanks, featuring key platforms such as the indigenous Al-Zarrar, Type-59/69, Russian T-80UD, and Chinese VT-4.

The country has an estimated 50,000 armored vehicles, including APCs and IFVs, with notable models like the M113 APCs, Al-Fahd IFVs, and M1224 MaxxPro MRAPs.

In terms of artillery, Pakistan possesses around 4,472 pieces, which includes 375 self-propelled howitzers, with key systems like the M109A5, SH-15 (Chinese), and A-100 MBRL.

The Special Services Group (SSG), SSG Navy, and Special Service Wing represent Pakistan’s special forces, which, while respected, are smaller in scale compared to India’s forces.

The Corps of Engineers provides military engineering support, though it is less extensive than India’s Border Roads Organisation (BRO).

Analysis: Overall, India maintains a significant numerical superiority in tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, boasting a 3:1 advantage in armored vehicles and double the artillery pieces.

India’s modern platforms, such as the T-90S and Pinaka, are bolstered by domestic production.

While Pakistan’s tank fleet remains competitive, particularly with the modern capabilities of the Chinese VT-4, it also excels in infantry fighting vehicles with a variety of platforms like the M113 and Al-Fahd.

Although Pakistan’s artillery is not as extensive, it includes powerful systems. Both nations have elite special forces, but India’s larger scale and broader operational experience, particularly in counterinsurgency operations in Kashmir, provide it with a strategic advantage.

Air Force

Air Forces play a vital role in contemporary warfare, where air dominance is essential for swift responses and accurate strikes.

India

India boasts approximately 2,229 aircraft, ranking 4th globally, with around 513-606 fighter jets distributed across 31 squadrons. Key aircraft include the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Rafale, indigenous Tejas Mk1, MiG-29, and Mirage 2000.

The helicopter fleet comprises attack models like the Apache AH-64E, transport helicopters such as the Chinook, and various utility platforms.

Support capabilities feature 4 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems and Ilyushin Il-78 tankers. Ongoing modernization efforts include the acquisition of Tejas Mk1A and the planned retirement of older MiG-21s by 2030.

In terms of air defense, India has enhanced its long-range capabilities with the S-400 systems, deliveries of which commenced in 2020.

Pakistan

In contrast, Pakistan operates around 1,399-1,434 aircraft, with approximately 328-387 being fighter jets. Their key platforms include the F-16 Fighting Falcon, Chinese JF-17 Thunder, and Mirage III/V.

Pakistan has a greater number of attack helicopters than India, including the AH-1F Cobras. Their support aircraft consist of 7 AEW&C systems, which provide superior ISR capabilities compared to India.

Modernization efforts in Pakistan involve upgrading F-16s with Turkish Roketsan missiles and testing CZ Bren and FN-SCAR. For air defense, Pakistan utilizes the HQ-9 system, which is less advanced than India’s S-400.

Analysis: India possesses a larger and more varied air force, featuring double the number of aircraft and a wider array of modern fighters such as the Rafale and Su-30MKI. However, its squadron count, approximately 31, falls short of the target of 42 due to delays in procurement and the phase-out of MiG-21s.

In contrast, Pakistan’s smaller air force is undergoing modernization, with JF-17s as its core and upgraded F-16s improving its precision strike capabilities. While it has an edge in AEW&C systems that enhance situational awareness, it is behind in advanced air defense and overall fleet size.

Naval force

Regarding naval forces, both nations have crucial maritime interests in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.

India

India boasts a fleet of around 294 vessels, including 2 aircraft carriers (INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant), 18 submarines (including the nuclear-powered INS Arihant), 13 destroyers, 14 frigates, numerous corvettes, and 106 patrol vessels, supported by 75 combat-capable aircraft and a personnel strength of approximately 67,700.

Pakistan

Conversely, Pakistan’s fleet consists of about 121 vessels, with no aircraft carriers, limiting its capabilities to a green-water navy. It has 8 submarines (Agosta-class and Chinese Yuan-class), 9 frigates, 17 patrol vessels, 8 combat-capable aircraft, and a personnel count of around 23,800.

Analysis: Overall, India’s navy is considerably larger and more capable, with its aircraft carriers facilitating power projection throughout the Indian Ocean.

India’s nuclear submarines and large surface fleet offer significant strategic advantages. In contrast, Pakistan’s smaller navy is primarily focused on coastal defense and regional operations, with its submarines threatening Indian shipping routes.

The lack of aircraft carriers and limited naval aviation capabilities hinder Pakistan’s ability to project power at sea.

Nuclear capabilities

Both countries possess nuclear weapons, which influence their deterrence strategies. India has approximately 130-140 warheads and employs delivery systems such as Agni-III/V ballistic missiles, Mirage 2000, Rafale aircraft, and the INS Arihant for sea-based deterrence.

Its nuclear doctrine is based on a No First Use (NFU) policy, promising massive retaliation in response to a nuclear attack.

Pakistan, with around 140-150 warheads, has a slight numerical advantage and utilizes delivery systems like Shaheen-II/III ballistic missiles, F-16s, and Babur cruise missiles, with naval capabilities under development.

Its doctrine emphasizes full-spectrum deterrence, including tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s conventional military superiority, exemplified by the Nasr missile designed for battlefield deployment.

This slight advantage in warhead count and tactical capabilities is intended to counterbalance India’s conventional military strength, particularly in light of India’s.

This situation creates a paradox of stability and instability, where Pakistan intensifies subconventional conflicts, such as terrorism, while under the protection of its nuclear capabilities.

Strategic and Operational Considerations

India

Doctrine: Prioritizes conventional superiority and deterrence against both Pakistan and China. The ‘Cold Start’ doctrine anticipates swift, limited incursions to penalize Pakistan without provoking nuclear escalation.

Modernization: Committed to enhancing advanced systems (S-400, Rafale, T-90S, indigenous Tejas, drones).

Challenges: Bureaucratic hurdles, sluggish procurement processes, and a focus on counterinsurgency have weakened conventional war preparedness. The aging fleet (MiG-21s) and squadron shortages remain issues.

Alliances: Strong relationships with Russia, France, Israel, and the US improve access to technology. Participation in exercises like RIMPAC enhances interoperability.

Pakistan

Doctrine: Focuses on asymmetric warfare (e.g., proxy groups, ISI-supported militants) and nuclear deterrence to offset India’s conventional advantages.

Modernization: Dependent on Chinese systems (JF-17, VT-4, HQ-9), with upgrades from Turkey and the US (F-16s).

Challenges: Economic limitations restrict fuel and equipment upkeep, resulting in canceled drills in 2023. Tensions with Afghanistan divert resources.

Alliances: Strong connections with China (e.g., Shaheen exercises) and limited US support (MNNA status) strengthen capabilities.

Analysis: India’s expansive strategic focus (China and Pakistan) stretches its resources but propels modernization. Pakistan’s concentrated focus on India allows for efficient resource allocation, yet economic difficulties and border conflicts with Afghanistan undermine its position.

Historical Overview and Military Engagements

1947-48 saw a deadlock over Kashmir, with India securing the majority of the region.

In 1965, both nations declared tactical victories, resulting in an inconclusive outcome. The 1971 conflict culminated in a significant Indian triumph, which facilitated the formation of Bangladesh and the capitulation of approximately 93,000 Pakistani soldiers.

The Kargil conflict in 1999 highlighted India’s ability to reclaim territory, showcasing its conventional military strength despite Pakistan’s nuclear advancements in 1998.

The 2019 Balakot airstrikes, conducted by India in response to the Pulwama attack, indicated a readiness to escalate tensions, although Pakistan minimized the repercussions. Key Takeaways: India’s superior military size and strategic advantages have historically positioned it favorably in extended conflicts, while Pakistan’s dependence on irregular warfare and nuclear deterrence constrains its capacity for conventional warfare but allows for engagement in low-intensity conflicts.

A Comprehensive Assessment

India possesses significant advantages in terms of manpower, budget, and conventional military capabilities; however, Pakistan’s military should not be overlooked. Its nuclear stockpile, tactical weaponry, and asymmetric strategies, such as terrorism supported by the ISI, provide a formidable deterrent.

India’s efforts to modernize are hindered by bureaucratic challenges and the need to address threats from both China and Pakistan, while Pakistan faces economic difficulties and outdated equipment, like Type-59 tanks and G3 rifles, which limit its conventional military strength.

Key Insights

India’s Advantages: Larger military forces, advanced military technology, a blue-water navy, and international partnerships.

India’s Disadvantages: Gradual modernization, an aging air force, and a primary focus on counterinsurgency operations.

Pakistan’s Advantages: Nuclear capabilities, expertise in asymmetric warfare, and support from China.

Pakistan’s Disadvantages: Economic limitations, smaller conventional military forces, and ongoing regional conflicts.

Possible Conflict Scenarios: In a conventional military engagement, India’s superior numbers and technology would likely lead to success in an extended conflict; however, Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and use of proxy warfare could either escalate tensions or lead to a stalemate.

Conclusion

By 2025, India’s military capabilities will greatly surpass those of Pakistan in terms of personnel, budget, and the strength of its air, naval, and land forces, positioning India as the 4th strongest military globally, while Pakistan ranks 12th.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, unconventional tactics, and support from China keep it as a significant threat. The military dynamics of both countries are influenced by their ongoing rivalry, with India aiming for wider strategic goals and Pakistan concentrating on countering Indian influence.

Although the power balance leans towards India, any potential conflict could escalate quickly due to the presence of nuclear weapons and regional instability.

It is important to note that this analysis is based on publicly available information and may not reflect classified military capabilities or current developments.