Türkiye is preparing extraordinary contingency measures to prevent a potential mass influx of refugees from Iran in the event of political collapse in Tehran, according to a report by Middle East Eye, citing officials briefed during closed-door sessions in parliament.
Senior officials from Türkiye’s foreign ministry reportedly outlined multiple crisis scenarios involving Iran, warning lawmakers that Ankara is ready to act before any large-scale migration reaches Turkish territory.
‘Beyond Standard Border Controls’
According to participants in the briefing, Turkish officials signalled a willingness to go well beyond routine border security measures. One lawmaker said officials explicitly mentioned the possibility of creating a “buffer zone” on the Iranian side of the border, while another source said the term was not formally used but the intent was clearly conveyed.
“They believe everything possible should be done on the Iranian side to ensure that those who might flee remain there,” one source told Middle East Eye.
Border with Iran Fully Reinforced
Türkiye has already significantly strengthened security along its 560-kilometre border with Iran. Earlier this month, the defence ministry confirmed the installation of a high-tech border barrier system, including:
- Hundreds of surveillance and observation towers
- Continuous drone and aircraft patrols
- Integrated reconnaissance systems
- Modular concrete wall segments
Officials say the border is now monitored 24/7 through interconnected surveillance and intelligence platforms.
Iran Unrest Raises Alarm in Ankara
During the same parliamentary briefing, officials reportedly told lawmakers that recent protests across Iran have resulted in:
- Around 4,000 deaths
- More than 20,000 injured
The unrest has been driven by rapid inflation, economic collapse, and the sharp devaluation of the Iranian rial. While some protests reportedly turned violent, multiple investigations and video evidence suggest Iranian security forces used disproportionate force, along with internet shutdowns, to suppress demonstrations.
Türkiye Rejects Foreign Intervention in Iran
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has publicly stated that Ankara opposes any foreign military intervention in Iran, urging the United States to prioritise diplomacy.
However, concerns in Ankara have grown after reports that Washington is weighing potential strikes on senior Iranian officials, according to a Gulf source cited by Middle East Eye.
The US has recently increased its military presence in the region, deploying warplanes, air defence systems, and naval assets. The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in Middle Eastern waters this week further heightened anxiety among Turkish officials.
Fear of Another Refugee Crisis
Türkiye remains highly sensitive to the prospect of new refugee flows after hosting millions displaced by conflicts in Syria and Iraq over the past decade.
Officials estimate that a full-scale conflict involving Iran could push up to one million people toward the Turkish border.
Sources say Ankara has abandoned any “open-door” refugee policy and is unlikely to accept new arrivals except in cases of urgent humanitarian need.
However, the situation is complicated by the presence of an estimated 12 million Azerbaijani Turks living in Iran, whose potential movement toward Türkiye could create political, humanitarian, and ethnic sensitivities if large numbers reach the border.
Strategic Balancing Act
Türkiye’s preparations reflect a delicate balancing act:
- Preventing uncontrolled migration
- Avoiding direct military involvement
- Managing regional escalation
- Protecting domestic stability
As tensions around Iran continue to rise, Ankara appears determined to contain any fallout beyond its borders.
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