US Ties Rewarm as Washington Signals Path for Turkey’s Return to F-35 Program — If S-400s Go

The United States and Turkey are holding their most serious talks in years on Ankara’s possible return to the F-35 fighter jet program, with Washington making clear that any reinstatement depends on Turkey no longer owning or operating its Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said in a statement on X that discussions are under way on both Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 project and the fate of the S-400s, describing the current dialogue as “the most fruitful” in nearly a decade.

“As laid out in US law, Türkiye must no longer operate nor possess the S-400 system to return to the F-35 program,” Barrack said, adding that the close relationship between President Donald Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had created a “new atmosphere of cooperation” and raised hopes for a breakthrough in the coming months.

Turkey was removed from the U.S.-led F-35 consortium in 2019 after it proceeded with the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, which Washington says could expose sensitive data on the stealth jet to Moscow. CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s defence sector followed in 2020.

Ankara, which invested around $1.4 billion in the program and was slated to receive more than 100 aircraft while producing key components, has long called its expulsion “unjust” and has pushed either for readmission or financial compensation.

Erdogan: ‘We Have Not Given Up on the F-35s’

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly signaled that rejoining the F-35 program remains a strategic goal.

Speaking to reporters after a NATO summit in The Hague in June, Erdoğan said Turkey “has not given up” on acquiring the jets and has formally conveyed its desire to rejoin the program during meetings with Trump.

Technical-level talks have since resumed, alongside long-running Turkish efforts to modernize its air force with Eurofighter Typhoons, upgraded F-16s, and its own KAAN fifth-generation fighter project, expected to enter service later this decade.

Turkish officials argue the original S-400 purchase was driven by repeated U.S. delays and restrictions on selling Patriot air defense systems — a grievance Ankara still cites in public messaging.

S-400: Core Obstacle, Search for ‘Creative’ Solutions

For Washington, the condition is unequivocal: no S-400s, no F-35s.

US law under CAATSA bars advanced weapons sales to countries operating major Russian systems like the S-400, and successive administrations have insisted that Turkey must remove or neutralize the batteries to move forward.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently told Reuters that Ankara and Washington are “very close” to finding a way to lift the sanctions, hinting at “creative solutions” for the S-400s — such as long-term storage or relocation — while insisting they have not been integrated into NATO systems.

Some analysts and commentators have floated more ambitious ideas, including transferring the S-400s to a third country like Ukraine in exchange for F-35 access, though no such plan has been endorsed publicly by either government.

Domestic and Alliance Pushback

Barrack’s public comments have stirred criticism from several quarters in the US and Europe.

Members of Congress who have long opposed Turkey’s re-entry point to Ankara’s human-rights record, tensions with Greece, and ongoing security operations in Syria. Earlier this year, the State Department reiterated that US opposition to Turkey’s return remained in place absent clear steps on the S-400s.

On social media, Kurdish activists accused the ambassador of “selling out” US interests to Erdoğan, while some pro-Ukraine voices argued that any deal should include transferring the S-400 systems to Kyiv. Pro-Israel commentators, meanwhile, highlighted Erdoğan’s harsh rhetoric toward Israel and the West. (These reactions reflect online opinion rather than official positions.)

Regional partners such as Greece and Israel are closely watching the talks, wary that restoring Turkey’s access to fifth-generation fighters could significantly alter the balance of airpower in the Eastern Mediterranean if not paired with confidence-building measures.

What’s at Stake for NATO and the Region

A successful deal would:

• bolster NATO’s southern flank at a time of heightened tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East
• strengthen interoperability between Turkish and allied air forces
• potentially smooth broader disputes over sanctions and defence cooperation

Failure, however, could:

• push Turkey further toward Russian and Chinese defence suppliers
• accelerate Ankara’s reliance on indigenous platforms like KAAN and Kızılelma
• deepen long-standing mistrust between Ankara and key NATO capitals

For now, US officials are signalling cautious optimism while stressing that any solution must be “clear and permanent” on the S-400 issue. Turkish officials continue to talk up alternatives and sovereignty—while also making clear they still want the F-35.

The coming months will show whether the Trump–Erdoğan channel can turn this opening into a lasting reset, or whether the F-35 will remain the symbol of a fractured partnership.