The initial stage of the agreement established between Hamas and Israel on Wednesday entails a cessation of hostilities and the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza, alongside Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
However, numerous specifics and the timeline for the complete agreement remain ambiguous, which will be crucial for its future success.
This agreement marks the second ceasefire since the conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an assault on Israel, resulting in over 1,200 fatalities and the abduction of 250 hostages, as reported by Israeli officials. In retaliation, Israel’s military operations have led to the deaths of at least 46,645 Palestinians and injuries to more than 110,000 in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The first ceasefire, which occurred in November 2023, lasted approximately one week. During this time, 105 hostages held by Hamas—mainly women, children, and the elderly—were freed, while Israel released around 240 Palestinian prisoners from its facilities.
The current ceasefire agreement is structured to unfold in three distinct phases.
The first phase is anticipated to commence on Sunday and continue for six weeks. This phase will include a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, a swap of hostages and prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. US hostages in Gaza are expected to be released during this initial phase, as stated by US President Joe Biden on Wednesday.
The specifics of the second and third phases are still under development, with details to be determined during the first phase, according to Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in a briefing on Wednesday.
We will persist in our efforts, collaborating closely with our partners to ensure the successful implementation of this agreement as intended, he stated, highlighting that mediators have dedicated 411 days to finalizing the terms. “This agreement is expected to lead us to peace, hopefully in the end. I am convinced that its success hinges on the parties involved acting in good faith to prevent any potential collapse of the deal.”
Hamas described the agreement on Wednesday as a “significant turning point.” However, the Israeli cabinet must still vote to ratify the deal before it can take effect.
Here’s a detailed overview of the current ceasefire agreement and the forthcoming steps.
Ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and humanitarian aid
The ceasefire agreement would provide the first break from conflict for the people of Gaza in over a year, marking only the second such pause since the onset of Israeli bombardment.
According to an Israeli official, the military will initiate a withdrawal from populated areas in the first phase but will maintain a presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Additionally, Israel will keep a buffer zone within Gaza adjacent to its border, which has been a key point of contention in the negotiations.
The agreement is anticipated to facilitate the return of Palestinian civilians to their homes throughout Gaza, including the heavily impacted northern regions. A significant influx of humanitarian aid is expected to enter the strip, where residents have been enduring severe humanitarian challenges, as noted by Al Thani.
Gaza’s injured individuals will be permitted to exit the enclave for medical treatment, and humanitarian aid will be allowed into the region, with hospitals and bakeries undergoing necessary repairs, as stated by officials.
Which hostages and prisoners will be released?
In the initial phase of the agreement, Hamas and its allied militant factions will free 33 hostages, which will include female soldiers, children, the elderly, and those with health issues, in exchange for an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners, according to Al Thani.
As part of the arrangement, American hostages held by Hamas will also be included in the first phase of the hostage release, as confirmed by Biden.
On the first day of the ceasefire, three female Israeli civilian hostages are anticipated to be released, followed by the release of four additional hostages on the seventh day, as outlined in a document shared by senior Hamas official Bassem Naim.
Subsequently, Hamas will release three Israeli detainees every week, beginning with women, both civilians and soldiers, as indicated in the document.
During the sixth week, Hamas is expected to release all remaining detainees included in this phase, while Israel will reciprocate by releasing the agreed number of Palestinian prisoners from its facilities, based on lists provided by Hamas.
Hamas and its affiliates are currently detaining 94 individuals who were taken from Israel on October 7, 2023. The Israeli government reports that at least 34 of these individuals are deceased, although the actual number may be higher. Among the hostages, 81 are men and 13 are women. The group includes 84 individuals from Israel, along with eight from Thailand, one from Nepal, and one from Tanzania.
Additionally, Hamas has four other hostages who have been held since 2014, with at least two confirmed dead.
On the other hand, Israel is reported to be holding at least 10,000 Palestinian prisoners, as stated by the Commission of Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society. This figure does not account for an unspecified number of Palestinians captured in Gaza. Included in the total of Palestinian prisoners are 3,376 individuals under administrative detention, who have not been publicly charged or tried, comprising 95 children and 22 women.
Second and third phases to be negotiated
Negotiations for the second and third phases of the ceasefire are yet to take place during the first phase. According to an Israeli official, these discussions are set to commence on the 16th day following the implementation of the agreement.
The continuation of the ceasefire beyond the initial phase of the agreement is not assured. Nevertheless, an official indicated that Israel is committed to “bringing all our hostages back home” and will engage in negotiations for the subsequent phase with sincerity, which may facilitate the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
President Biden stated that the second and third phases will involve the release of additional hostages and the initiation of reconstruction efforts in Gaza.
“When the second phase commences, there will be an exchange for the release of the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and all Israeli forces will be withdrawn from Gaza, transitioning the temporary ceasefire into a permanent one,” he explained.
“Finally, in phase three, the remains of any hostages who have perished will be returned to their families, and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza will commence.”
How the deal will be enforced
Regarding the enforcement of the agreement, Al Thani responded to a question, stating that the US, Egypt, and Qatar have established a mechanism to ensure compliance with the ceasefire by both parties.
“This mechanism will be based in Cairo, and a joint team from the three nations will oversee the implementation of the agreement,” he noted. “All aspects have been agreed upon and are expected to be operational by the execution date.”
Al Thani indicated that the current ceasefire agreement differs significantly from the one established in November 2023, which was only effective for a week.
“Regrettably, the November agreement was quite transactional, operating on a day-to-day basis,” he explained. “In contrast, this new agreement includes a well-defined framework for the initial 42 days, along with a structured approach for negotiating subsequent phases. All specifics of the agreements will be made public in the coming days as the details are finalized.”
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