Iran is in direct communication with factions within the new leadership of Syria, according to an Iranian official

Iran has initiated a direct communication channel with the new leadership of rebels in Syria following the ousting of its ally, Bashar al-Assad, as reported by a senior Iranian official to Reuters on Monday. This move aims to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the two nations.

The rapid advance of a militia coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously affiliated with al-Qaeda, represents a significant turning point for the Middle East in recent history. The removal of Assad as president has diminished a stronghold from which Iran and Russia exerted their influence throughout the Arab world.

Shortly after Assad’s departure, Iran expressed its expectation for continued relations with Damascus, emphasizing a “far-sighted and wise approach” and advocating for the formation of an inclusive government that reflects all segments of Syrian society.

Tehran is undoubtedly concerned about how this shift in power will impact its influence in Syria, which is crucial to its regional power dynamics. However, three Iranian officials conveyed to Reuters that there is no sense of urgency, as Tehran is exploring diplomatic channels to engage with individuals within Syria’s new ruling factions who share views more aligned with Iran’s interests.

“The primary concern for Iran is whether the successor to Assad will distance Syria from Tehran’s influence,” stated a second Iranian official. “This is a scenario that Iran is eager to avoid.”

A post-Assad Syria that is hostile would cut off Hezbollah’s only land supply route and restrict Iran’s primary access to the Mediterranean, as well as its “front line” with Israel. A senior official indicated that Iran’s clerical leadership, anticipating the loss of a crucial ally in Damascus and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, is open to engaging with the new Syrian leadership.

“This engagement is essential for stabilizing relations and preventing further regional tensions,” the official noted.

CONTACTS WITH SYRIAN LEADERSHIP

Tehran has initiated contacts with two factions within the new leadership, and the extent of these interactions will be evaluated in the coming days following a meeting at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a key security institution. Two Iranian officials expressed concern that Trump might leverage Assad’s ousting to increase economic and political pressure on Iran, potentially aiming to extract concessions or destabilize the Islamic Republic. After withdrawing the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran and other major powers in 2018, then-President Trump implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy that resulted in severe economic difficulties and heightened public discontent in Iran. Trump is assembling his anticipated administration with individuals who are known for their hardline stance on Iran.

In 2020, President Trump authorized a drone strike that resulted in the death of Qassem Soleimani, the most influential military leader in Iran and the architect of attacks targeting U.S. interests and those of its allies.

According to Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group, “Iran is now faced with two choices: retreat and establish a defensive position in Iraq or negotiate with Trump.” The decline of Assad has highlighted Iran’s diminishing strategic influence in the region, further complicated by Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Throughout the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, Iran’s clerical leadership invested billions to support Assad, deploying its Revolutionary Guards to ensure the survival of its ally and uphold Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israeli and U.S. dominance in the Middle East.

The potential fall of Assad would sever a vital link in Iran’s regional resistance network, which has been essential for transporting arms and financing its proxies, particularly Hezbollah.