Efforts to resolve the Kurdish conflict in Turkey are now challenged by developments in Syria

Efforts to resolve a 40-year militant conflict have sparked optimism for peace in Turkey; however, the fragile status of Kurdish forces in Syria and ambiguity regarding Ankara’s intentions have left many Kurds feeling apprehensive about the future. Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), has reportedly expressed a readiness to urge the PKK to disarm as part of a peace initiative aimed at concluding the insurgency he initiated against NATO-member Turkey in 1984.

This conflict has resulted in over 40,000 fatalities, hindered development in the predominantly Kurdish southeastern region, and created significant political rifts. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party engaged with Ocalan in late December and has since initiated discussions with other political entities, including President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP), regarding Ocalan’s suggestions, with both parties characterizing the discussions as “positive.”

According to two sources from DEM, the party plans to visit Ocalan again on January 15 at his prison on Imrali Island, where he has been incarcerated since 1999. They anticipate that this meeting will produce a tangible plan for advancing peace negotiations.

“We expect the process to take shape and a clear roadmap to be determined to establish the legal framework in the second meeting with Ocalan,” stated Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit, deputy chair of the DEM Party parliamentary group, in an interview with Reuters. As the third-largest party in parliament, DEM’s position is significant. While it remains uncertain what Ocalan might seek in any agreement, DEM has reported that he mentioned aspirations for a “democratic transformation” in Turkey. The Kurdish population has long advocated for enhanced political and cultural rights, as well as economic assistance, and DEM is also calling for Ocalan’s release.

The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has significantly altered the landscape of the peace process, placing Syrian Kurdish forces in a precarious position as they face opposition from Turkey-backed factions, while the new authorities in Damascus maintain a cooperative relationship with Ankara.

Turkey has issued a warning regarding a potential military incursion into northern Syria targeting the Kurdish YPG militia, demanding their disbandment. Ankara labels them as terrorists linked to the PKK, yet they are also partners with the United States in combating the Islamic State, which complicates the situation further.

Currently, the implications of Assad’s downfall on the PKK’s willingness to disarm remain uncertain. A prominent PKK leader recently expressed support for Ocalan’s initiatives but refrained from addressing the disarmament topic directly. The commander of the Syrian Kurdish forces has suggested that a resolution with Turkey could involve the withdrawal of foreign fighters, including those from the PKK, to prevent further hostilities in the region.

“pointing guns and talking about peace”

Kocyigit emphasized that navigating a peace process in Turkey amidst these circumstances poses a significant challenge for the government. She stated, “You cannot point guns at the Kurds in Kobani and talk about peace in Turkey.” The Kurdish issue is multifaceted and requires consideration of both Turkey’s internal factors and its international implications. She urged Turkey to recognize the role of Kurds in shaping Syria’s future.

While Ankara has remained relatively quiet about the discussions with Ocalan, which were initiated following a proposal from Erdogan’s key ally in October, a senior AKP member expressed optimism after engaging with a DEM delegation. Abdullah Guler remarked, “We see everyone’s good-willed effort to contribute to the process,” and indicated that the aim is to resolve the matter within the year, suggesting that forthcoming developments may be unexpected.

He did not elaborate on the specific developments, but another AKP member indicated that conditions might be favorable for the PKK to disarm by February. When questioned about the possibility of an amnesty for PKK members, Guler stated that a general amnesty was not currently being considered.

Ozgur Ozel, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, proposed the establishment of a parliamentary commission involving all parties to tackle the issues faced by the Kurdish population.

In the southeast, there is a prevailing skepticism among Kurds regarding the prospects for peace, largely due to previous disappointments. This doubt is evident in recent opinion polls. A SAMER survey of approximately 1,400 individuals, conducted in the southeast and major cities across Turkey, revealed that only 27% of participants believed that the initial call from Ocalan to cease hostilities would lead to a genuine peace process.

The last peace negotiations fell apart in 2015, resulting in a spike in violence and a crackdown on members of pro-Kurdish parties. Guler emphasized that the current process would differ significantly from the discussions held a decade ago, noting that the circumstances have evolved.

Erdogan’s position is crucial

According to DEM’s Kocyigit, a key factor in enhancing confidence in the peace process would be a show of support from Erdogan. “His explicit acknowledgment of his involvement in the process would have a tremendous impact. If he publicly demonstrates this backing, public support would likely increase swiftly,” she remarked.

Erdogan has maintained a firm stance against the PKK, asserting after a recent cabinet meeting that “those who opt for violence will be buried alongside their weapons.” He reiterated his frequent warning regarding potential military action against Syrian Kurdish forces, stating, “We may come suddenly one night.”

He expressed his belief that “in the end, brotherhood, unity, togetherness, and peace will prevail,” while cautioning that if this path is obstructed, “we will not hesitate to employ the iron fist of our state wrapped in a velvet glove.”

Yuksel Genc, coordinator of the Diyarbakir-based polling organization SAMER, emphasized the significance of Erdogan’s remarks. She noted that “the harsh rhetoric from Erdogan and his associates is hindering the restoration of trust among Kurds in the new process,” highlighting concerns regarding the fate of Kurds in Syria.

On the domestic front, Ankara has indicated a commitment to addressing the Kurdish issue, recently unveiling a $14 billion development initiative aimed at bridging the economic divide between the southeast and the rest of Turkey.

While an end to the conflict would be broadly welcomed throughout Turkey, the government faces a delicate challenge due to the prevalent animosity towards Ocalan and the PKK among many Turks, following four decades of violence, with numerous individuals opposing peace negotiations.

“I certainly do not support it. I am against such negotiations or discussions. I view this as a disrespect to our martyrs [soldiers] and their families,” stated Mehmet Naci Armagan, a tourism professional in Istanbul.