On February 21, 2025, military aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht, recognized on X as @RupprechtDeino, shared an intriguing update that stirred interest within the defense analysis community. A previously unverified YY-20A tanker, identified by the serial number 20646, was captured in photographs.

This discovery not only contributed to the documented inventory of China’s expanding fleet of aerial refueling aircraft but also reignited an ongoing inquiry: how many YY-20A tankers are currently operational within the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)?

Rupprecht’s commentary raised the possibility that all aircraft numbered from 20541 to 21040—potentially totaling 50 tankers—are indeed active YY-20As, or if the numbering system has obscured the actual count. The reality remains unclear, often hidden behind the secrecy that characterizes Chinese military advancements, yet the implications are significant.

Determining the precise number of YY-20A tankers in operation is largely speculative, given Beijing’s hesitance to disclose comprehensive force structure information. If Rupprecht’s assertion holds true, and all 50 serials from 20541 to 21040 correspond to active YY-20A tankers, it would indicate an impressive production rate for a platform that was only introduced in 2022.

Nevertheless, discussions on X and analyses from outlets like Aviation Week suggest a more cautious estimate. A 2023 evaluation indicated that by 2032, China might operate up to 75 YY-20 tankers, suggesting a current fleet size closer to a dozen, with production expected to increase annually.

The sighting of 20646, positioned within the sequence, implies that the PLAAF may indeed be producing these aircraft at a consistent rate—potentially six to eight per year, according to some analysts—while transitioning from the initial YY-20A to the more advanced YY-20B variant, which is powered by domestically produced WS-20 engines.

The potential for renumbering or utilizing Y-20B transports as dual-purpose tankers adds complexity to the situation. Currently, the fleet is estimated to have between 10 and 20 operational YY-20As, with many more in development as China accelerates efforts to enhance its strategic airlift and refueling capabilities.

The YY-20A, part of the larger Y-20 family, represents more than just a numerical increase; it is a crucial element in the PLAAF’s evolution into a force capable of global power projection. Based on the Xi’an Y-20 strategic transport, the YY-20A tanker variant can carry up to 90 tons of fuel, significantly surpassing the capacity of the older H-6U tankers it is set to replace.

This advancement enables Chinese aircraft such as the J-20 and J-16 to extend their operational ranges well beyond the first island chain, which stretches from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. For the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), this capability not only enhances the defense of national airspace but also supports offensive operations throughout the Indo-Pacific region, including areas like the South China Sea and potential hotspots such as Guam.

The Y-20 platform’s adaptability—functioning as a transport, tanker, and potentially an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system—reflects the multi-role versatility found in Western aircraft like the Airbus A400M, while competing with the scale of the U.S. Air Force’s C-17 Globemaster III.

In conjunction with China’s expanding network of overseas bases, the YY-20A equips the PLA to deploy and sustain forces swiftly, whether for military engagements or humanitarian efforts, marking a transition from a focus on regional defense to a broader global presence.

American military officials have been closely observing developments across the Pacific, expressing a blend of reluctant admiration and increasing apprehension. The Pentagon’s 2024 China Military Power Report, published in December, highlighted the swift modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), noting that its fleet of 3,150 aircraft—more than 2,400 of which are combat-ready—positions it as the third-largest air force in the world, closely trailing the U.S. Air Force.

During a recent briefing, a senior Pentagon official, who requested anonymity, emphasized the significance of the YY-20 in this advancement: “The Chinese are rapidly closing operational gaps. Their tanker fleet, spearheaded by the YY-20, provides their stealth fighters and bombers with the range necessary to contest our forces in the Western Pacific.”

Kris Osborn, a military analyst for The National Interest, expressed similar concerns back in 2018, prior to the introduction of the YY-20B, cautioning that the Y-20 series could potentially “double the operational range of China’s fifth-generation fighters,” a prediction that is now materializing.

In a more recent 2023 analysis for The War Zone, Osborn highlighted the YY-20B’s ability to take off in “hot and high” conditions—thanks to the WS-20 engines—as a transformative factor, enabling operations from challenging, elevated bases that could be crucial in a Taiwan scenario.

The underlying message is unmistakable: the U.S. is wary of a PLAAF capable of executing long-range strikes and undermining American naval supremacy, a scenario that keeps defense strategists in Washington on high alert.

What is the aircraft causing such unease across the Atlantic? The Xi’an Y-20, affectionately known as “Chubby Girl” due to its broad fuselage, made its first appearance in 2013 as China’s inaugural domestically produced heavy airlifter. It was developed by Xi’an Aircraft Industrial Corporation with contributions from Russian and Ukrainian sources.

The standard Y-20A transport variant, initially equipped with Russian D-30KP-2 engines, can carry a payload of 66 tons and has a maximum range of 7,800 kilometers when fully loaded. It is capable of transporting a variety of cargo, including ZTZ-99 tanks and medical supplies.

In 2022, the YY-20A tanker variant was introduced, replacing cargo space with fuel pallets. This version includes two underwing refueling pods and a centerline drogue, designed for refueling larger aircraft such as the H-6N bomber or KJ-500A AEW&C platform, with monitoring provided by IIR/TV cameras for accuracy.

The Y-20B, which debuted in 2023, features an upgrade to four Shenyang WS-20 high-bypass turbofan engines, increasing thrust to 31,000 pounds per engine and improving both range and short-field capabilities. A YY-20B tanker sub-variant was observed in late 2023, likely enhancing these features, although there are suggestions that the Y-20B’s modular design may allow any variant to function as a tanker with minimal adjustments.

The aircraft is equipped with advanced avionics, a glass cockpit featuring heads-up displays, and is constructed with composite materials, making it both modern and substantial, with a wingspan of 50 meters and a length of 47 meters.

Internationally, the Y-20’s potential for export is gaining attention. Nigeria has been mentioned as a potential buyer since at least January 2024, according to Wikipedia’s documentation of PLAAF marketing activities, likely attracted by the aircraft’s capability to operate from less developed airfields—a significant advantage for African nations with varying infrastructure.

Venezuela, aligned with pro-China sentiments, along with various African nations such as Egypt, where the Y-20 captivated audiences at the 2024 Egypt International Airshow, is part of a larger narrative. According to The War Zone in September 2024, China’s showcase of the Y-20A at South Africa’s AAD 2024 expo highlighted its strategic ambitions on the continent, where countries are in search of cost-effective alternatives to Western or Russian airlifters like the C-130 and Il-76.

Experts identify a potential market for the Y-20E export variant, equipped with WS-20 engines, which could attract nations looking for strategic airlift capabilities without the geopolitical implications associated with U.S. or NATO-affiliated platforms.

Pakistan, already a customer of Chinese AEW&C systems, may consider the anticipated KJ-3000 AEW&C variant, while Serbia, which received Chinese FK-3 missiles via Y-20 in 2022, could explore further acquisitions to strengthen bilateral relations. However, competition remains fierce, as Russia’s Il-76 continues to be a cost-effective option, and sanctions on Moscow may allow it to offer lower prices than China.

Nonetheless, with increasing production capabilities and the introduction of a civilian Y-20F-100 variant aimed at commercial markets, China is positioning itself to meet global demand for its “Chubby Girl.”

The appearance of the YY-20A, marked by the notable sighting of 20646, reflects China’s broader military ambitions—a combination of aspiration, engineering prowess, and strategic insight that is altering the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Whether the PLAAF deploys 50 tankers today or reaches 75 by the end of the decade, the implication is clear: China’s air force has evolved from a regional entity to a significant global player, capturing the attention of the international community, particularly the Pentagon.