Carney aims for global leadership against Trump after Canada’s election win

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney achieved a significant comeback for the ruling Liberals in Monday’s election, positioning himself as a global advocate for multilateralism in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump‘s protectionist stance.

As the first individual to head two G7 central banks, Carney possesses the expertise to gain immediate international respect, according to experts. His critical remarks aimed at Trump during the campaign have garnered attention worldwide. ‘Canada is prepared to assume a leadership role in forming a coalition of nations that share our values,’

Carney stated on April 3 in Ottawa. ‘We advocate for international collaboration. We support the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas. If the United States chooses not to lead, Canada will take that responsibility.’ Carney’s Liberals triumphed over the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, whose ‘Canada First’ slogan and occasionally sharp rhetoric drew parallels to Trump, potentially impacting his electoral outcome.

The Conservatives had maintained a significant lead in the polls for months, which diminished after Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and threatened annexation. In response, Canadians are increasingly avoiding U.S. products and travel. Although Carney continues as prime minister, his Liberals secured only a minority of seats in the House of Commons, rendering the government more vulnerable and reliant on smaller parties for support.

With Australia set to hold elections on May 3, major parties are closely monitoring the polling momentum towards Carney, as Australian political strategists note. Similar to Canada, concerns over the global repercussions of Trump’s policies have shifted voter support towards the center-left Labor Party. Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson, who worked with Carney at the Finance Ministry, remarked that Carney is the most qualified prime minister Canada has had since the 1960s, given his leadership experience at the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.

Carney is expected to initiate the expansion of Canadian trade with Europe, Australia, and Asian democracies like Japan, as noted by Robertson, in order to mitigate some of the economic repercussions from the newly implemented U.S. tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum.

Carney will need to build his global coalition ‘without provoking Trump,’

Strengthening Canada’s economy will likely be Carney’s top priority, which includes advancing infrastructure projects to reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States, the destination for 90% of Canada’s oil exports. As the leader of the smallest G7 nation, Carney will need to build his global coalition ‘without provoking Donald Trump,’ according to Roland Paris, a former adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and current professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa. ‘It will be a challenging balancing act for him,’ Paris remarked. ‘While he and Canada have a vested interest in collaborating with other like-minded nations, they should avoid positioning Canada as a focal point of opposition.

Why make Canada a target?’ Paris believes that Carney’s composed demeanor and financial expertise might prompt a more positive reaction from Trump compared to the treatment Trudeau received, where he was disparagingly referred to as ‘governor.’

Robertson, a senior adviser at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, anticipates that Carney will seek to engage collaboratively with Trump, potentially as soon as the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Alberta this June, where he foresees Carney arranging a trade discussion with Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Carney has committed to accelerating military expenditures and decreasing reliance on the U.S. for defense procurement, while also collaborating with the European Union’s proposed 800-billion-euro defense fund.

According to Chris Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Carney is unlikely to achieve the same level of influence as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Emmanuel Macron. He noted that Canada’s diminished global standing will hinder Carney’s ability to emerge as a genuine leader in the Western world, citing the country’s underfunded military and stagnant economy.

Although Canada holds the G7 presidency this year, which enhances Carney’s platform, his victory may not serve as a replicable model for other global center-left politicians due to the unique existential threat posed by Trump’s comments about annexing Canada.

In Australia, analysts suggest that voter aversion to Trump is negatively impacting center-right opposition leader Peter Dutton, who was previously in a competitive race. Current polls indicate that the rival Labor party is likely to win narrowly or form a minority government with independent support.

Andrew Carswell, former press secretary to conservative Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who lost the last election, remarked that Trump has significantly disrupted the conservative coalition both in Australia and globally, delivering a substantial blow to the conservative movement with his policies in Washington.

Similarly, in Hungary, leader Viktor Orban, who has expressed admiration for Trump, is facing the strongest opposition in years as the economy struggles and the situation may worsen amid Europe’s challenges with Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who received support from Carney’s Labour Party in 2023, has attempted to adopt a more diplomatic stance towards Trump, yet he has struggled to enhance his unfavorable approval ratings.

Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, remarked, ‘If Labour aims to regain public favor, taking a firmer position against Trump could be beneficial. He is not well-liked: his tariffs, trade war, and stance on Ukraine are all viewed negatively by the British public.’

He further noted, ‘In Canada, the situation is clearer; supporting Donald Trump often equates to being anti-Canadian.’ Richard Johnston, a retired political science professor at the University of British Columbia, suggested that the implications of Carney’s victory may resonate more with right-leaning parties outside the U.S., stating, ‘Eliminate any association with MAGA.’