The intensifying conflict between India and Pakistan may provide the world with its first significant insight into the performance of advanced Chinese military technology in comparison to Western equipment, leading to a notable increase in Chinese defense stocks. Shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft surged by 40% this week after Pakistan deployed AVIC-manufactured J-10C jets to down Indian fighter jets, including the advanced French Rafale, during an aerial confrontation on Wednesday.
India has yet to respond to Pakistan’s assertions or confirm any losses of aircraft. When questioned about the role of Chinese jets, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry stated on Thursday that he was not aware of the situation.
Nevertheless, as Pakistan’s main arms supplier, China is likely observing closely to assess the performance of its weapon systems in actual combat scenarios. As a rising military superpower, China has not engaged in a significant war for over forty years. However, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, it has rapidly modernized its military, investing heavily in the development of advanced weaponry and state-of-the-art technologies, while also extending this modernization effort to Pakistan, which has long been regarded by Beijing as its ‘ironclad brother.’
In the last five years, China has accounted for 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports, as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). These imports encompass advanced fighter jets, missiles, radar systems, and air-defense technologies, which experts believe would be crucial in any military confrontation between Pakistan and India.
Additionally, some weapons produced in Pakistan have been co-developed with Chinese companies or utilize Chinese technology and expertise. ‘This transforms any conflict between India and Pakistan into a practical testing ground for Chinese military exports,’ stated Sajjan Gohel, the international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London-based think tank.
Furthermore, the Chinese and Pakistani armed forces have participated in increasingly complex joint exercises across air, sea, and land, including combat simulations and crew-swapping drills. ‘Beijing’s enduring support for Islamabad—through military hardware, training, and now a growing emphasis on AI-driven targeting—has subtly altered the tactical landscape,’ remarked Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. ‘This situation transcends a mere bilateral conflict; it offers insight into how Chinese defense exports are influencing regional deterrence.’
The recent escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly following an attack on tourists in Kashmir, highlights a significant geopolitical shift in the region, where China is increasingly challenging American dominance.
Since gaining independence from Britain in 1947, India and Pakistan have engaged in three wars over Kashmir. During the Cold War, India received support from the Soviet Union, while the US and China backed Pakistan. Today, a new phase of great-power competition overshadows the enduring conflict between these nuclear-armed nations.
Despite its historical stance of nonalignment, India has strengthened its ties with the US, as various American administrations have sought to position India as a strategic counterbalance to China. India has significantly increased its defense acquisitions from the US and its allies, such as France and Israel, while decreasing its dependence on Russian military supplies. Conversely, Pakistan has fortified its relationship with China, designating it as its ‘all-weather strategic partner’ and actively participating in Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Data from SIPRI indicates that in the late 2000s, the US and China each accounted for approximately one-third of Pakistan’s arms imports. However, in recent years, Pakistan has ceased purchasing American weaponry, opting instead for Chinese arms. Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at SIPRI, pointed out that while China has been a key arms supplier to Pakistan since the mid-1960s, its current preeminence is largely due to the withdrawal of US support. Over a decade ago, the US accused Pakistan of insufficient action against ‘terrorists,’ including Taliban operatives, which compounded Washington’s frustrations regarding Islamabad’s nuclear program.
The United States has identified India as a viable partner in the region, leading to a significant reduction in military support for Pakistan. Consequently, China’s arms supply to Pakistan has notably increased, positioning China as Pakistan’s primary ally. China has expressed disapproval of India’s military actions against Pakistan, urging for calm and restraint. Prior to the recent tensions, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed China’s commitment to Pakistan during a phone conversation, labeling it as Pakistan’s ‘ironclad friend.’
With Pakistan primarily equipped by China and India obtaining over half of its military supplies from the US and its allies, any potential conflict between these two nations could represent a clash of Chinese and Western military capabilities.
Following a surge in hostilities after the tragic killing of 26 predominantly Indian tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, India executed missile strikes early Wednesday, targeting what it described as ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Analysts suggest that these strikes were carried out using India’s French-manufactured Rafale and Russian-made Su-30 fighter jets.
Pakistan has proclaimed a significant triumph for its air force, asserting that five Indian fighter jets – including three Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Su-30 – were downed by its J-10C fighters during a one-hour confrontation involving 125 aircraft at distances exceeding 160 kilometers (100 miles).
Salman Ali Bettani, an international relations expert at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, remarked that this incident is now regarded as the most intense air-to-air combat between two nuclear-armed countries. He noted that this engagement marks a significant advancement in the operational deployment of sophisticated Chinese-origin systems. While India has not confirmed any losses, a source from the French Defense Ministry indicated that at least one of India’s latest and most advanced warplanes – a French-manufactured Rafale fighter jet – was lost during the conflict.
Bilal Khan, founder of the Toronto-based defense analysis firm Quwa Group Inc., stated that if this loss is verified, it suggests that Pakistan’s weapon systems are at least on par with contemporary offerings from Western Europe, particularly France.
Despite the lack of official validation and concrete evidence, Chinese nationalists and military enthusiasts have taken to social media to celebrate what they perceive as a victory for Chinese-made military technology. Consequently, shares of China’s state-owned AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, the manufacturer of Pakistan’s J-10C fighter jets, surged 17% on the Shenzhen exchange on Wednesday, prior to Pakistan’s foreign minister asserting that the jets had been utilized to down Indian aircraft. The company’s shares experienced an additional 20% increase on Thursday.
The J-10C represents the most recent iteration of China’s single-engine, multirole J-10 fighter, which was introduced to the Chinese air force in the early 2000s. With enhanced weaponry and avionics, the J-10C is categorized as a 4.5-generation fighter, comparable to the Rafale but positioned below 5th-generation stealth aircraft like China’s J-20 and the US F-35. In 2022, China supplied the initial batch of the J-10CE, its export variant, to Pakistan, as reported by state broadcaster CCTV. This aircraft is now the most sophisticated fighter jet in Pakistan’s inventory, alongside the JF-17 Block III, a lightweight 4.5-generation fighter co-developed by Pakistan and China.
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) also maintains a larger fleet of American F-16s; however, these F-16s remain in an early-2000s configuration, significantly lagging behind the upgraded models currently available from the US. In contrast, the Chinese-manufactured J-10CEs and JF-17 Block IIIs are equipped with modern technologies, including active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars. According to Khan, while the F-16s remain a crucial asset for any PAF-led response, they are not the primary or essential component.
Senior Colonel (ret) Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, noted that if J-10Cs were indeed utilized to down French-made Rafales, it would significantly enhance confidence in Chinese weaponry. Zhou remarked that such an event would certainly attract attention, especially considering that China has not engaged in warfare for over forty years, potentially leading to a substantial increase in Chinese arms sales on the global stage.
The United States continues to be the leading arms exporter globally, representing 43% of worldwide weapon sales from 2020 to 2024, as reported by SIPRI. This figure is over four times that of France, which holds the second position, followed by Russia. China is in fourth place, with a significant portion of its arms exports directed towards Pakistan. Defense analyst Khan from Toronto noted that if the downing is verified, it could significantly enhance China’s defense sector, attracting interest from nations in the Middle East and North Africa that typically lack access to advanced Western technology. With Russia’s position weakened due to its invasion of Ukraine, it is likely that China is intensifying efforts to penetrate Moscow’s traditional markets, such as Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, and Sudan, to secure substantial sales.
Experts from Pakistan and China suggest that the J-10Cs utilized by the Pakistan Air Force are probably equipped with the PL-15, China’s most sophisticated air-to-air missile, which boasts a reported range of 200-300 kilometers (120-190 miles) beyond visual range. The export variant has a reduced range of 145 kilometers (90 miles). Recently, amid escalating tensions, the Pakistan Air Force released a three-minute video highlighting its warplanes, featuring the JF-17 Block III armed with PL-15 missiles, which were described as ‘PAF’s potent punch.’
Antony Wong Dong, a military observer based in Macau, commented that from China’s viewpoint, this serves as a significant promotional tool, stating, ‘It will astonish even countries like the United States — just how formidable is its adversary, really? This is a critical consideration for all nations contemplating the purchase of fighter jets, as well as for China’s regional competitors, who must reassess how to confront this new reality.’
Some analysts suggested that, if India’s reported losses are accurate, they may be attributed more to inadequate strategies and planning by the Indian Air Force rather than advancements in Chinese weaponry. Singleton, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated, ‘If the reports of India losing several jets are confirmed, it would cast significant doubt on the IAF’s preparedness, beyond just its equipment. While the Rafales are advanced, effective warfare relies on integration, coordination, and survivability, not merely on high-profile acquisitions.’
Additionally, it remains unclear what intelligence India had regarding the PL-15. For example, if India assumed that Pakistan only had access to the shorter-range export variant, Indian aircraft may have operated in exposed regions. Furthermore, engagement rules might have restricted Indian pilots from initiating fire or retaliating against Pakistani aircraft, as noted by Fabian Hoffman, a defense policy research fellow at the University of Oslo. In such scenarios, Indian miscalculations could have made Pakistani weaponry appear more formidable, as Hoffman discussed in his blog.
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