A former NATO commander predicts Russia will keep about 20% of the territory it occupied in Ukraine before 2014

Retired Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO commander, has forecasted that the conflict in Ukraine will conclude with Russia retaining about 20% of the territory it held before 2014. In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, Stavridis suggested that Ukraine may also pursue membership in the European Union.

“Putin will be displeased with that outcome, just as Ukrainians will resent the fact that Putin retains a portion of their land. However, this is part of the negotiation process,” Stavridis remarked.

He further stated that if President-elect Donald Trump could resolve the Ukraine situation within 24 hours, he would support his nomination for a Nobel Peace Prize. Trump has previously asserted that he could achieve this resolution on his first day in office, though he did not provide specific details on how.

“I hope he will exert pressure on both parties to come to the negotiating table, and I believe he will,” Stavridis noted.

He also indicated that Ukraine could be on a “path to NATO” within three to five years. The anticipated agreement might involve the establishment of a “demilitarized zone” monitored by NATO forces, likely comprising European troops rather than American ones.

Stavridis emphasized that a negotiated resolution cannot be imposed by the United States but must be reached through mutual agreement between Ukraine and Russia. He added that the resolution of the conflict, which intensified in 2022, is expected to take several months.

In October, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky unveiled his ‘victory plan’, which called for immediate NATO membership. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Ukraine’s ambition to join the alliance, which Moscow views as an existential threat, is a significant factor contributing to the ongoing conflict.

Zelensky has reiterated that Ukraine will continue its fight until it regains its borders as they were in 1991, a goal that necessitates reclaiming the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, as well as the Kherson Region, Zaporozhye Region, and Crimea from Russian control.

Russia asserts its willingness to engage in discussions, provided there is recognition of the “territorial reality” that these regions will not revert to Ukrainian governance.

Previously, US Vice President-elect JD Vance proposed that the conflict might be frozen along the current front lines, which would require Ukraine to relinquish its claims to territories occupied by Russia and abandon its NATO aspirations.