Allow the conflict in Lebanon to unfold naturally: US opted markedly different strategy

Following weeks of vigorous diplomatic efforts to establish a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah militants, the United States has opted for a markedly different strategy: allowing the conflict in Lebanon to unfold naturally.

Just a fortnight ago, both the United States and France were advocating for an immediate 21-day ceasefire to prevent an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. However, this initiative was undermined by Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah, the initiation of Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon on October 1, and airstrikes that have significantly diminished the group’s leadership.

Currently, U.S. officials have rescinded their calls for a ceasefire, citing a shift in circumstances. “We do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution,” stated State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller during a press briefing earlier this week.

This shift in strategy illustrates the conflicting objectives of the U.S.: to contain the escalating conflict in the Middle East while simultaneously aiming to weaken the Iran-backed Hezbollah significantly.

The new strategy presents both practical advantages and significant risks. The United States and Israel stand to gain from the defeat of a shared adversary—Hezbollah, which Iran employs to threaten Israel’s northern border.

However, promoting an expansion of Israel’s military operations carries the danger of igniting a conflict that could spiral out of control. Jon Alterman, a former official at the State Department, noted that while the U.S. aims to diminish Hezbollah’s influence, it must also consider the potential consequences of “creating a vacuum” in Lebanon or instigating a broader regional conflict.

He remarked that Washington’s stance appears to be: “If altering the Israeli strategy is not feasible, then it is better to attempt to guide it in a positive direction.”

NO SIGNIFICANT CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS

The recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah ignited when the latter launched missiles at Israeli targets shortly after the Hamas assault on October 7, 2023, which marked the beginning of the Gaza war. Since then, the two sides have been engaged in ongoing exchanges of fire.

As indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas stalled over several months, Israel intensified its attacks on Hezbollah in September, inflicting significant damage on the group, including the remote detonation of Hezbollah communication devices, resulting in thousands of injuries among its members.

Following the death of Nasrallah, which the U.S. described as “a measure of justice,” President Joe Biden reiterated calls for a ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government proceeded with a ground invasion, and within days, the U.S. shifted its stance, withdrawing calls for a ceasefire and expressing support for Israel’s military actions.

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, noted that Washington had limited expectations of restraining Israel and recognized potential advantages in the operation. “It certainly created momentum in which the administration probably thought, ‘Let’s make a virtue out of necessity’,” he remarked, suggesting that U.S. officials were likely holding back leverage to manage Israel’s response to a recent ballistic missile attack from Tehran.

Currently, there are no significant ceasefire negotiations taking place, according to European sources familiar with the situation, who indicated that Israel intends to continue its operations in Lebanon “for weeks, if not months.” Two U.S. officials informed Reuters that this timeline is plausible.

From the U.S. perspective, the Israeli military campaign could yield at least two advantages. Firstly, diminishing Hezbollah—Iran’s most formidable proxy militia—could reduce Tehran’s influence in the region and lessen the threat posed to both Israel and U.S. forces. Additionally, Washington believes that sustained military pressure might compel Hezbollah to disarm, potentially facilitating the election of a new Lebanese government that could displace the influential militia, which has played a significant role in Lebanon for many years.

Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official now affiliated with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, expressed skepticism about achieving this outcome. “While many Lebanese citizens are frustrated by Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanon, this transformation is being imposed on the country through a highly violent campaign,” Lord remarked.

RISKY STRATEGY

U.S. officials indicated this week that the primary objective is to uphold United Nations Security Council resolution 1701, which established a U.N. peacekeeping mission, known as UNIFIL, to assist the Lebanese army in maintaining a weapons-free zone along its southern border with Israel, excluding personnel from the Lebanese state.

According to U.S. officials, discussions with relevant parties to achieve these objectives can proceed even amid ongoing hostilities, although analysts caution that the conflict significantly heightens the risk of a wider war, especially as the region anticipates Israel’s reaction to Iran’s missile attack.

In addition to the potential for a conflict that could involve the United States, there are concerns that Lebanon could become another Gaza.

A year of Israeli military actions has devastated the enclave, resulting in nearly 42,000 fatalities, as reported by health officials in Gaza. U.S. officials have explicitly stated that Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon should not mirror that of the Gaza Strip.

Despite these risks, Alterman, who currently leads the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expressed skepticism that diplomatic efforts will halt the fighting in the near future. “Netanyahu perceives that all his strategies are yielding results, making it a challenging time for Israel to consider easing its offensive,” he remarked.