Pakistan welcomed the new year with a sense of relative tranquility following a turbulent 30-month period characterized by unstable politics, a contentious election, and an economy on the brink of collapse.

As the domestic political landscape begins to stabilize and there are hopes for economic recovery in South Asia’s second-most populous nation, foreign policy and security issues are expected to become the primary challenges facing the country this year.

Experts anticipate a challenging 2025 for Pakistan as it navigates relationships with neighboring countries, global allies, and adversaries, particularly in light of Donald Trump‘s impending return to power in the United States.

Many of Pakistan‘s foreign policy and security dilemmas stem from its geographic neighbors, notably Afghanistan to the west and its longstanding rival India to the east.

Following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, violence from armed groups and insurgents surged across Pakistan. In 2024, nearly 700 law enforcement personnel lost their lives in armed attacks, marking one of the deadliest years for the nation of 240 million.

The majority of these assaults were attributed to the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), which views the Afghan Taliban as its ideological counterpart. Additionally, separate attacks targeted locations associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion megaproject that has significantly strengthened the political and economic alliance between Islamabad and Beijing.

Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonprofit organization based in the United States, and an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, asserts that Pakistan is currently confronting its “most severe” national security challenge in at least a decade, potentially since the 1990s.

Clary stated to Al Jazeera, “Pakistan lacks a significant strategic option other than to stabilize its economy and mend its relations with major powers and neighboring countries. This process will likely require years of effort, and it remains uncertain whether Pakistan has the time needed to undertake this work before facing a potential collapse.”

The following outlines the nations that will be central to Islamabad’s foreign policy in the coming year:

China

Pakistani officials often emphasize their friendship with China as being “deeper than the oceans, taller than the mountains.” However, 2024 has exposed vulnerabilities in this alliance.

Recent attacks targeting Chinese citizens and interests have led to a rare public admonition from Beijing’s envoy in Islamabad. Jiang Zaidong remarked at an event in October, “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months.”

Muhammad Faisal, an expert in foreign policy regarding China, cautions that while China is likely to continue its financial assistance to Pakistan, the prospects for further expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project within the country appear limited.

Pakistan faces significant challenges in managing increasing pressure from Beijing regarding a proposed ‘Joint Security Mechanism’, which would involve the presence of Chinese security personnel on its territory. This situation could expose these personnel to militant attacks, thereby complicating the already intricate security landscape, Faisal noted.

The deployment of Chinese soldiers to oversee projects in Pakistan would signify a recognition of Islamabad’s security shortcomings, heightening the risk of violence against Chinese nationals and raising the politically sensitive issue of potential Chinese military actions against Pakistani citizens.

Additionally, experts express concern that the adversarial approach of the Trump administration towards China may compel Beijing to seek overt support from Pakistan, forcing Islamabad to carefully balance its diplomatic relations to avoid straining ties with Washington, a long-standing ally.

During his first term, Trump adopted a confrontational stance towards China, leading to a trade war between the two nations. In his second term, he has indicated intentions to impose tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports.

“However, since Pakistan does not occupy a prominent position on the Trump administration’s international agenda, there is a potential advantage. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains a common thread in Pakistan’s dealings with China,” Faisal remarked.

Kamran Bokhari, senior director at the US-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, pointed out that China’s dissatisfaction with Pakistan arises from the limited returns on its substantial investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He suggested that this predicament could be leveraged to the advantage of the United States.

China has expressed significant disappointment with Pakistan, leading to a strained relationship that has persisted for some time. However, Beijing finds itself in a difficult position due to its substantial investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which amount to billions, yet have not yielded the expected benefits. This predicament for China in Pakistan may present an advantageous situation for the United States, as noted by Bokhari in an interview with Al Jazeera.

The United States

The relationship between Pakistan and the United States dates back to Pakistan’s independence from British colonial rule in 1947. However, the dynamics of Islamabad-Washington relations have largely depended on Pakistan’s support for US initiatives in the region, particularly during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as during the US-led “war on terror” that followed the September 11 attacks in 2001.

With the Taliban regaining control in Kabul, the strategic partnership between Pakistan and the US has diminished. As the US reduces its involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistan has increasingly turned to China to fulfill its economic, military, and technological requirements.

Hassan Abbas, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, emphasizes the need for Pakistan to “carefully navigate” its relationship with the US amidst rising tensions with both China and India. He observes that while there is evident apprehension on Pakistan’s part, significant shifts in the relationship seem unlikely.

“Security concerns and regional challenges, particularly the instability in Afghanistan,” Abbas remarked to Al Jazeera, “are expected to dominate the interactions between the two nations.” Abbas is also the author of “The Return of Taliban: Afghanistan after Americans Left.”

Bokhari indicated that Pakistan is not a priority for the United States, which is focused on more urgent global challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and various crises in the Middle East.

“At this moment, I do not observe any significant tensions escalating between the two nations, and Pakistan is navigating its situation cautiously. In Washington, the prevailing view of Pakistan is that it is a fragile and disorganized state that must first address its internal issues before engaging further,” he stated.

India

India continues to pose the most significant foreign policy challenge for Pakistan.

Although there are occasional interactions at multilateral platforms, the relationship has been largely stagnant for years. The situation escalated over Kashmir after New Delhi revoked the limited autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir in 2019, which drew strong condemnation from Pakistan. Both nations administer parts of Kashmir but claim the entire region, contributing to one of the longest and most violent military conflicts in history.

“The disparity with India is becoming increasingly pronounced, and Pakistan has limited avenues to make India take it seriously without jeopardizing other foreign policy objectives,” analyst Clary remarked to Al Jazeera, noting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “little ideological motivation” for improving relations with Pakistan and views such efforts as impractical amid the current domestic challenges in Pakistan.

Abdul Basit, a former Pakistani ambassador to India, perceives the Kashmir situation as an ongoing impasse that necessitates discreet diplomatic efforts. He stated to Al Jazeera, “India has demonstrated no inclination towards flexibility following the constitutional amendment,” alluding to the Modi administration’s repeal of Article 370, which had conferred a degree of autonomy to Indian-administered Kashmir.

As India strengthens its ties with the West, particularly the United States, in light of their shared concerns regarding China, Basit believes that Islamabad must seek avenues for engagement with New Delhi.

“Failing to do so will result in a perpetual cycle of deadlock, preventing us from establishing a foundation for normal relations. This, in my view, is the fundamental issue regarding India,” remarked the retired diplomat.

Conversely, Bokhari from the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy suggests that India may find itself under scrutiny from the US this year due to its competition with China.

“India has developed significant and practical relationships with Iran, where it is constructing a port, and it is also purchasing oil from Russia, which is currently involved in a conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, there is a greater likelihood that India will face pressure from the incoming [Trump] administration,” he noted.

Bokhari asserts that for Pakistan to regain US interest, it must present itself as strategically valuable, similar to its role during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent US military engagements post-9/11.

“To capture US attention, you must provide something that generates substantial interest for them; only then will you be noticed,” he explained. “The relationship was never about the US favoring Pakistan; it was about Pakistan serving a specific purpose.”

Iran

In 2024, Iran experienced significant turmoil, marked by substantial setbacks in its geopolitical standing within the Middle East, including direct military strikes from Israel on multiple occasions.

The year commenced with Iran conducting operations in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, targeting the armed group Jaish al-Adl, which it identified as a security threat along its borders. This prompted a rapid military response from Pakistan. However, the situation did not escalate further, as Tehran opted for diplomatic channels to address the conflict.

Umer Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham, anticipates that this “uneasy rapprochement” will persist, alongside the emergence of new challenges, particularly with the potential return of Trump to the presidency.

Karim cautions that a decline in relations between Pakistan and Iran could exacerbate border security issues, potentially empowering Baloch separatists known to have bases in Iran. These rebels have long sought an independent state.

“Pakistan will aim for constructive engagement with Iran to mitigate further tensions amid increasing domestic unrest,” Karim stated.