Nearly three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drew widespread condemnation from nations around the world, President Vladimir Putin is convening a summit with over a dozen world leaders. This move signals that he is not isolated, as an emerging coalition of countries rallies behind him.

The three-day BRICS summit, commencing on Tuesday in Kazan, a city in southwestern Russia, marks the first gathering of the major emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—since the group expanded earlier this year to include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran.

Attendees are expected to include leaders such as Xi Jinping of China, Narendra Modi of India, Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, along with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is not a member of BRICS. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was anticipated to participate but canceled his trip due to an injury sustained at home.

This summit represents the largest international assembly that President Putin has hosted since the onset of the war in February 2022. The gathering of BRICS and other nations this week highlights a growing alignment among countries seeking to alter the global power dynamics and, for some like Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran, to directly challenge the influence of the United States and its allies.

In the coming days, Putin and his close ally Xi will emphasize this narrative: that it is the West that finds itself isolated due to its sanctions and alliances, while a “global majority” of nations backs their efforts to contest American dominance on the world stage.

In comments made to reporters on Friday, Putin emphasized the increasing economic and political influence of BRICS nations, describing it as an “undeniable fact.” He asserted that collaboration among BRICS and interested nations could play a significant role in shaping a new world order, while clarifying that the group should not be viewed as an “anti-Western alliance.”

The timing of Putin’s statements is particularly significant, occurring just days before the US elections, where a potential win for former President Donald Trump could lead to a shift in US support for Ukraine and strain relations with traditional allies.

“This BRICS summit is essentially a boon for Putin,” remarked Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “The underlying message will be: how can one claim Russia is globally isolated when leaders from various nations are gathering in Kazan?”

Russia aims to position BRICS as a leading force advocating for a more equitable global order, according to Gabuev.

However, despite Russia’s ambitious rhetoric, the leaders convening in Kazan represent a diverse array of perspectives and interests, which observers note may hinder their ability to convey a cohesive message—particularly one that aligns with Putin’s aspirations.

Global Crises

The gathering hosted by Russia stands in stark contrast to last year’s BRICS summit in Johannesburg, where Putin participated remotely due to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court related to alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

This year, the Russian president is leading the first summit since the organization nearly expanded its membership, taking place against a significantly altered global backdrop.

While BRICS primarily focuses on economic cooperation, last year’s meeting was overshadowed by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Currently, as that conflict continues, the escalating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel’s engagement with Iranian proxies, is expected to dominate discussions among leaders.

Recently, Putin announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas would attend the summit. Analysts suggest that the Russian president and his officials may leverage the conflict and the widespread discontent in the Global South regarding U.S. support for Israel to advocate for a new global order that excludes U.S. dominance.

Both China and Russia have called for a ceasefire amid the intensifying conflict and have criticized Israel’s military actions, while the U.S. has supported Israel’s right to respond to attacks from militant groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Many participants at the summit view the conflict in the Middle East as a significant illustration of why this specific coalition of nations should wield greater influence, according to Jonathan Fulton, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council based in Abu Dhabi. However, he noted that these countries are primarily utilizing the situation as a rhetorical device to voice their criticisms rather than demonstrating a genuine commitment to facilitating its resolution.

Observers will also be keen to see if China and Brazil leverage the event to promote their joint six-point peace initiative regarding the war in Ukraine, similar to their approach at last month’s United Nations General Assembly. During that meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the proposal, asserting that such initiatives would ultimately benefit Moscow, while cautioning Beijing and Brasilia that they would not enhance their influence at Ukraine’s expense.

Zelensky faces his own difficulties in presenting his “victory plan” to conclude the conflict, coupled with the looming US elections, which presents China with a significant opportunity to advocate for its own approach to Ukraine without risking too much leverage, as noted by Gabuev in Berlin.

The gathering in Kazan also provides President Putin with ample chances for direct engagement with his fellow BRICS leaders and other supportive dignitaries present.

The recent addition of Iran to BRICS—reported by CNN to have supplied Russia with hundreds of drones and short-range ballistic missiles, a claim Iran denies—further solidifies a close partnership with Moscow. Additionally, China has faced accusations from the US and its allies of bolstering Russia’s military efforts by supplying dual-use goods such as machine tools and microelectronics, a role Beijing refutes while defending its “normal trade” with Russia and its stance of “neutrality” regarding the conflict.

Leaders are anticipated to engage in discussions over the coming days regarding the advancement of ongoing initiatives aimed at facilitating payments outside the US dollar-dominated framework, utilizing BRICS currencies and banking networks. This approach may yield economic advantages while also enabling member nations, such as Russia, to bypass Western sanctions. Additionally, the countries are expected to explore avenues for enhancing economic, technological, and financial collaboration across various sectors, including energy and satellite data sharing.

Concurrently, they will need to address the internal divisions and varying priorities among the member states, which analysts suggest may hinder the overall effectiveness of BRICS.

This situation is not unprecedented for the group, which first convened in 2009 with Brazil, Russia, India, and China as a coalition of significant emerging markets, later incorporating South Africa in 2010. In 2015, BRICS established the New Development Bank, intended as an alternative or complement to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

BRICS has been loosely united by a common goal of reforming the international system to enhance the representation of its member countries. Since its inception, the group has included nations with significant disparities in their political and economic frameworks, along with various other tensions.

For instance, India and China, which are two foundational members of BRICS, have a longstanding border dispute. Their differences have become increasingly evident in recent years, particularly as relations between China and the United States have deteriorated, while India has strengthened its partnership with the US.

Currently, as BRICS continues to expand—reportedly with over 30 additional countries expressing interest in joining or collaborating—geopolitical divisions are further complicating the group’s identity and future direction, according to analysts.

Manoj Kewalramani, who leads Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, noted that China and Russia appear to be steering BRICS away from its original focus on emerging economies towards a platform that reflects discontent with Western hegemony.

Moreover, new or prospective members may not wish to align strictly with either this emerging vision or the West. Instead, they are likely to prioritize economic growth and seek to engage in a non-ideological and pragmatic manner.