China’s Airpower Surge: PLAAF on Track to Field Nearly 1,000 Stealth Fighters by 2030

China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is on course for a dramatic expansion that could fundamentally reshape the airpower balance in Asia by the end of the decade, according to projections by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

By 2030, the PLAAF is expected to operate one of the world’s largest and most modern fighter fleets, built around mass production of stealth and heavy multirole aircraft—far outpacing the pace of regional competitors.

What China’s Air Force Could Look Like in 2030

RUSI estimates that by the end of the decade, the PLAAF may field approximately:

• Around 1,000 J-20A/S heavy stealth fighters
• 200–300 J-35 medium stealth fighters
• Roughly 900 J-16 heavy multirole fighters

Together, these aircraft would give China an unprecedented combination of stealth, range, payload, and numbers, allowing sustained operations across the Western Pacific and along China’s land borders.

A Production Pace Few Can Match

China’s advantage is not just design—it is industrial scale.

The number of J-20 stealth fighters reportedly rose from around 150 aircraft in mid-2022 to over 200 by late 2023. Production rates are believed to have reached around 100 aircraft per year in 2023, later stabilising at approximately 120 fighters annually.

In 2025 alone, estimates suggest the PLAAF inducted:

• Around 120 J-20A/J-20S stealth fighters
• Another 100–170 non-stealth fighters, including J-16, J-15, and J-10 variants

This means China may have added up to 300 new combat aircraft in a single year, a rate unmatched by any other major air force.

J-35: The Next Stealth Layer

Alongside the J-20, China is developing the J-35, a medium stealth fighter believed to be entering low-rate initial production. While still less visible than the J-20 program, analysts expect output to ramp up rapidly.

Based on China’s previous production behaviour, 200–300 land-based J-35s could be operational by 2030. The aircraft is expected to benefit directly from sensors, avionics, and weapons already matured on the J-20, accelerating its operational readiness.

India’s Challenge: Numbers and Speed

In contrast, India’s response appears incremental rather than transformational.

India currently operates roughly 600 fighter aircraft and plans to acquire 114 additional jets. Proposed measures include:

• Induction of LCA Mk-1A fighters
• A possible purchase of 30–40 Rafales
• Limited and uncertain induction of LCA Mk-2

While these steps address near-term shortages, they do not match China’s production speed, scale, or stealth concentration, especially in the 2025–2030 timeframe.

Why This Matters Strategically

This widening gap is not merely numerical. China’s growing fleet combines:

• Stealth penetration capability
• Long-range sensors and missiles
• Networked operations
• High sortie sustainability

Such a force allows China to dominate airspace through mass, persistence, and layered capability, rather than relying on a small number of elite aircraft.

By comparison, slower acquisition cycles elsewhere risk creating capability cliffs, where aging fleets struggle to keep pace with rapidly modernising adversaries.

A Regional Airpower Inflection Point

If current trends continue, 2030 could mark an inflection point where the PLAAF becomes not only Asia’s largest air force, but one capable of sustained high-intensity operations across multiple theatres.

For regional air forces, the challenge is no longer just keeping up technologically—but keeping up industrially.

Conclusion

RUSI’s projections underline a stark reality: China’s airpower growth is being driven by consistent production, mature designs, and long-term planning, not one-off procurement decisions.

Unless acquisition speed and industrial output change elsewhere, the coming decade may see the airpower balance in Asia tilt decisively toward Beijing.