Dassault’s Rafale Production Rate vs. Global Demand: Why India’s 114-Jet Order Could Stretch Deliveries to 2036

In 2025, French aerospace manufacturer Dassault Aviation delivered a record 26 Rafale fighter jets, surpassing its previous year’s output and demonstrating steady growth in production capacity. However, with a backlog totaling around 220 Rafale aircraft at the end of 2025, the company faces a substantial challenge to keep pace with global demand, especially if a large Indian order of about 114 jets materializes.

Current Production and Backlog

In 2025, Dassault Aviation delivered 26 Rafale jets—15 for export customers and 11 for the French Air and Space Force—up from 21 Rafales delivered in 2024. Despite this increased output, the company’s backlog of 220 Rafales remains high, reflecting strong international demand from existing and new customers.

At the current production rate—roughly two jets per month—the existing backlog represents nearly a decade of work for Dassault, even before accounting for potential new orders.

India’s Potential Mega Order

New Delhi is reportedly in advanced discussions to procure 114 additional Rafale fighter jets to modernize the Indian Air Force under a planned defense acquisition program. If this order is finalized and added to the current schedule, the backlog could swell to around 334 aircraft, extending the timeline for deliveries well into the late 2030s unless production is increased significantly.

Currently, India has already signed multiple Rafale deals with France, including a $7.4 billion deal for 26 Rafales for its navy, expected to be delivered by 2030.

Production Ramp-Up Plans

Dassault has indicated plans to increase its Rafale production rate in the coming years. Reports suggest the company aims to eventually build up to three to four aircraft per month, with even higher rates possible as investment and supply chain capacity improve.

This strategic ramp-up is essential given the aircraft’s growing popularity. Since the start of the program, more than 533 Rafales have been ordered worldwide by France and several export customers, with hundreds still pending delivery.

Demand Outpacing Supply

Despite efforts to scale production, demand continues to outpace supply. Export contracts from countries such as Egypt, Qatar, Greece, Croatia, the UAE, Indonesia, and Serbia have helped expand Rafale’s global footprint, yet also placed strain on Dassault’s manufacturing line.

To meet both existing backlog and potential large orders like India’s, Dassault and its partners will need to significantly boost industrial capacity, streamline supply chains, and potentially establish localized production or assembly facilities. Recent industry discussions have even floated the idea of expanding production outside France to keep up with demand.

Conclusion

At its current pace of around 26 Rafales delivered annually, Dassault Aviation could take over a decade to clear the existing backlog, even before fulfilling potential mega-orders like India’s 114 jets. Unless production is accelerated substantially, key customers could face delivery timelines stretching into the mid-2030s. The coming years will be pivotal for Dassault as it balances delivery commitments with ambitious plans to ramp up output.