Last week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated a ground operation against Hezbollah, a militant group supported by Iran, in southern Lebanon. IDF commanders emphasized that any military engagement would be “limited” in terms of both geographic reach and duration. However, current developments suggest that preparations may be underway for a significantly larger conflict.
On Tuesday, the IDF reported that units from four divisions are actively engaged in combat in southern Lebanon. While the IDF has not disclosed specific troop numbers, it is estimated that each division comprises between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers. Additionally, Israel has expanded evacuation orders to cover approximately a quarter of Lebanese territory, resulting in over 1.2 million people being displaced, as reported by the United Nations.
Daniel Sobelman, an international security expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, noted that the IDF has deliberately kept the details of the operation ambiguous.
“At first, Israel indicated that the objective was solely to eliminate Hezbollah’s infrastructure directly across the border,” he explained.
“However, it is widely understood that this infrastructure extends far beyond just a few hundred meters or kilometers; it reaches all the way to Beirut, northern Lebanon, and the Beqaa Valley. If Israel intends to thoroughly address the situation in that region, we could be facing a prolonged operation,” he added.
The prospect of a significant ground invasion raises alarms on both sides of the border, where the memories of the previous conflict remain vivid. The 2006 war is referred to in Israel as the “Second Lebanon War,” despite being the third occasion on which Israel officially entered Lebanese territory, following invasions in 1978 and 1982. This conflict concluded in a stalemate after 34 days, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,100 Lebanese and around 170 Israelis, including 120 soldiers.
For the Lebanese, the ongoing conflict has already resulted in more casualties than the previous war. Since September 16, when Israel intensified its operations against Hezbollah, over 1,500 individuals have lost their lives in Lebanon.
Numerous international organizations have expressed their concerns regarding Israel’s recent escalation of military actions. The United Nations stated last month that “while Hezbollah has launched more missiles indiscriminately, displacing thousands of Israelis from their homes, Israel has intensified its indiscriminate and extensive airstrikes throughout Lebanon,” cautioning that the rising violence “contributes to the instability.”
Although the number of casualties on the Israeli side remains relatively low and primarily involves military personnel, they are still significant: at least 14 IDF soldiers have lost their lives. Additionally, there has been a continuous influx of injured soldiers arriving at the hospital since the commencement of the ground operation, with over 100 treated in just the initial days, according to reports.
Both the IDF and Hezbollah have indicated that there have been intense confrontations and multiple cross-border incidents over the past week.
The level of resistance exhibited by Hezbollah has taken many analysts by surprise, especially considering that Israel has recently eliminated nearly the entire leadership of the Iran-backed organization, including its long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Concurrently, Hezbollah persists in launching rockets into Israel on a consistent basis. Although the majority of these projectiles are intercepted by Israeli air defense systems, some do manage to get through. On Wednesday, two Israeli civilians lost their lives when a rocket hit Kiryat Shmona, a town located just a few miles from the border.
Several Israeli soldiers currently engaged in combat in Lebanon have informed U.S. media that the open, mountainous terrain where their adversary operates complicates military operations.
One soldier, who served in Gaza from October to March and again in July and August, and is now deploayed in southern Lebanon, remarked that the conflict along the northern border presents a stark contrast to his experiences in Gaza.
The issue at hand is not that Hezbollah receives superior equipment or training from Iran. Rather, the real challenge lies in the mental adjustment required after months of combat in urban environments compared to operations in open terrain. He emphasized that even fundamental movements, such as the formation of soldiers in a column, differ significantly in these two contexts.
Guerilla Warfare
On paper, the Israeli military possesses a significant advantage over Hezbollah’s militia, boasting more advanced weaponry, a larger troop count, superior intelligence capabilities, and stronger international alliances.
However, a soldier who spoke to the media indicated that these advantages are diminished in the context of the current combat occurring in the hills of southern Lebanon, where the effectiveness of advanced weaponry is less pronounced.
Security expert Sobelman noted that Israel faced a similar situation during the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah confronted the most powerful military in the Middle East, enduring hundreds of Israeli airstrikes daily, along with extensive artillery support and all the resources of a modern military. Yet, they were not defeated. They managed to survive and continued to launch hundreds of rockets into Israel each day throughout the Israeli offensive,” he explained.
Sobelman added that following the setbacks of 2006, Israel has dedicated nearly two decades to preparing for its next engagement with Hezbollah.
The prevailing belief has been that the next conflict would involve Hezbollah rather than Hamas. Few could have anticipated the events of October 7. For nearly twenty years, Israel has focused its efforts on preparing for the developments witnessed in recent weeks, particularly in terms of its intelligence capabilities regarding Hezbollah, which are remarkable.
Despite Israel’s success in eliminating several high-ranking Hezbollah leaders and causing significant damage to the group’s personnel through the use of advanced technology and airstrikes—some of which have resulted in civilian casualties—the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to encounter strong resistance in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah has also been gearing up for this confrontation.
“The assumption is that Israel will emerge victorious without incurring excessive losses. However, this is rarely the reality in guerrilla warfare,” Sobelman noted, emphasizing that Israel is operating in a region where Hezbollah has a significant advantage and is intent on inflicting maximum casualties on the IDF.
“Hezbollah fighters are well-entrenched in underground positions and are adopting a defensive strategy,” he explained. “Regardless of how many fighters are eliminated, in guerrilla warfare, the less powerful side often prevails by creating a sustained burden of costs.”
He stated that this mirrors the events of 2006, when Israel failed to secure a conclusive victory despite its advanced capabilities.
Although the IDF has not disclosed specifics regarding the deaths of its soldiers in Lebanon, Hezbollah has asserted that it successfully ambushed Israeli forces multiple times, claiming to have killed and wounded several troops.
The IDF appears resolute in its commitment to continue operations despite facing numerous challenges. On Wednesday, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stated that Israel intends to “strike Hezbollah with intensity, ensuring they receive no respite or opportunity for recovery.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further cautioned the Lebanese populace about the potential consequences of Hezbollah’s actions, suggesting they risk descending “into the abyss of a long war.”
However, there is a segment of Israeli society that questions the wisdom of entering Lebanon. Several residents from northern Israel expressed their concerns to CNN last week, indicating that a ground conflict could result in significant casualties.
Among those expressing dissent is Itamar Greenberg, an 18-year-old conscientious objector, who is williang to face imprisonment in opposition to the war. In Israel, military service is compulsory for most citizens, regardless of gender, and only a small number of young individuals choose to refuse service on ethical grounds, with a few facing incarceration each year.
Greenberg has currently served 60 days in prison—30 days following his first draft rejection and another 30 days after he was summoned again and declined once more. CNN interviewed him in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, just four days before he was set to return to prison for a third refusal to enlist.
Prior to the IDF’s attempts to draft him, Greenberg was an activist opposing the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the escalating violence perpetrated by Jewish settlers against Palestinian communities. Some protests escalated into violence after intervention from Israeli security forces, which has evidently affected Greenberg. He visibly flinched and glanced around anxiously when a police vehicle passed by with its sirens blaring.
In his conversation with CNN, Greenberg explained that his refusal to join the military is a protest against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, its actions in Gaza, and most recently, its military operations in Lebanon. “The war in Lebanon began while I was incarcerated. I joked that I didn’t even have the opportunity to refuse all their f**king wars,” he remarked.
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