Germany misses military targets despite Scholz’s overhaul

The readiness of the German military has diminished compared to the period when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to insights from military officials, lawmakers, and defense experts shared with Reuters. Even with a potential increase in defense spending from a new government, significant challenges will persist for years, particularly due to shortages in air defense, artillery, and personnel.

Colonel Andre Wuestner, the head of the German Armed Forces Association, noted in an interview with Reuters that prior to Russia’s invasion, the army maintained eight brigades at approximately 65% readiness. He explained that the transfer of weapons, ammunition, and equipment to Ukraine, along with the acceleration of Germany’s own military exercises, has adversely affected the availability of resources.

As a result, he indicated that the readiness of the German land forces has now dropped to about 50%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had committed to reforming Germany’s outdated military following Russia’s aggression, but three years later, the goal of supplying NATO with two divisions—approximately 40,000 troops—by 2025 and 2027 is encountering significant obstacles, as reported by numerous military officials, lawmakers, and defense experts.

The information provided by these sources, some of whom requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the military details, highlights Berlin’s vulnerable situation as Europe navigates a new geopolitical landscape under U.S. President Donald Trump. Germany, along with Poland, has been assigned by NATO to supply the majority of ground forces that would serve as the initial response to any potential Russian incursion on the alliance’s eastern front.

Scholz’s ambitious commitment to initiate a Zeitenwende, or turning point, in Germany’s military strategy has not materialized, according to sources who attribute this failure to a lack of urgency, an ineffective procurement system, and financial constraints.

Berlin has not managed to fully equip its troops for a NATO division by the beginning of this year and lacks the necessary air defenses to support them, the sources indicated.

A military source remarked that the goal of establishing a NATO division by 2027 is “far beyond our capabilities.” Opposition lawmaker Ingo Gaedechens, a defense expert on the parliamentary budget committee, noted that the second division is only approximately 20% equipped. “Even if we were to place orders immediately, we would not be able to equip it in time,” Gaedechens stated. Polls indicate that his Christian Democrats (CDU), led by candidate chancellor Friedrich Merz, are expected to form a new government following Germany’s election on February 23.

GERMANY’S MILITARY CHALLENGES

Germany’s military shortcomings are becoming increasingly apparent as President Trump urges European nations to take on a greater share of their defense responsibilities. Additionally, discussions in Washington regarding a potential agreement to end the war in Ukraine could impose further demands on Germany’s military capabilities, particularly if they are required to oversee a ceasefire.

Trump mentioned on Wednesday that he had engaged in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about initiating negotiations to conclude the conflict in Ukraine.

All of Germany’s major political parties have committed to maintaining military expenditures at NATO’s stipulated minimum of 2% of GDP. In contrast, former President Trump has advocated for NATO members to increase their spending targets to 5% of GDP, while NATO is contemplating a rise in its military spending goal to approximately 3%.

Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, indicated last month that military spending of around 3% of GDP will be essential for preparing the Bundeswehr for potential conflict. However, he noted that Trump’s proposed 5% target would represent over 40% of Germany’s total government expenditure.

Regardless of the election outcome, the next government will encounter significant challenges post-2027, when the special fund of 100 billion euros (approximately $104 billion) is expected to be depleted. To meet the 2% target thereafter, Germany will require an annual budget of around 30 billion euros.

“There are currently problems everywhere and no solutions,” remarked Gaedechens.

A particularly pressing issue is air defense, which Johann Wadephul, deputy leader of the CDU/CSU conservative faction in parliament overseeing defense matters, emphasized as needing immediate attention.

Defense analysts assert that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the critical roles of drones and artillery—large-caliber weapons operated by crews. The Bundeswehr is currently falling short in both areas. Wadephul stated, “The Bundeswehr has nothing at all in terms of drones. We are essentially empty-handed.”

He advocated for simplified procurement standards and an increase in defense spending to 3% of GDP. Alongside the CDU, he also supports the reintroduction of conscription in Germany, which was halted in 2011.

A representative for Scholz did not directly address the claim that the Zeitenwende initiative had failed but referenced comments made by Scholz in February. At that time, he described the national debate regarding funding for increased defense spending as “somewhat irritating” and urged for an agreement to relax Germany’s stringent debt restrictions to finance these costs.

He noted that Germany was already experiencing a funding shortfall for its requirements, remarking that it was “almost spooky” that there was no conversation about how to finance these needs.

The defense ministry refrained from commenting on the army’s readiness status, citing it as classified information. However, a spokesperson indicated that Germany’s land forces have been “providing a combat-ready division in high availability” to meet NATO mission requirements on its eastern flank since January 1, 2025.

A NATO spokesperson stated that Scholz’s Zeitenwende had significantly impacted Germany’s security and the alliance’s strength. They emphasized that increasing defense spending remains a top priority, although further efforts are necessary.

THE SNOOZE BUTTON

Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasing his military forces to 1.5 million troops, aiming to be prepared for conflicts in two separate regions. Colonel Wuestner noted that Germany is not the only European nation slow to react to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine since 2014, but specifically mentioned that “we Germans hit the snooze button.”

According to a survey conducted by public broadcaster ARD in January, defense ranks third among the most urgent issues for the new government, following immigration and the economy. In 2021, Germany committed to supplying 10 brigades—each consisting of approximately 5,000 troops—to NATO by 2030. Currently, it has eight brigades and is in the process of establishing a ninth in Lithuania, which is expected to be operational by 2027.

This summer, NATO is anticipated to set more stringent targets in response to the worsening security landscape, with Germany likely being asked to contribute at least two additional brigades, as indicated by two experts speaking to Reuters. The German NATO division scheduled to be operational this year is not fully functional; following contributions to Ukraine, it is short of 155mm howitzers, its primary artillery system, and has resorted to using parts from other artillery pieces, according to military and parliamentary sources.

Additionally, around 80 advanced RCH 155 howitzers required for the second division by 2027 have yet to be ordered. Both divisions also require approximately 200 short-range air defense systems, such as Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, to safeguard against drones and aircraft, as reported by two military sources and a parliamentary source.

Germany decommissioned the Gepard in 2012 as a cost-saving measure and is gradually beginning to replace it, with the first delivery of 19 Rheinmetall Skyrangers anticipated in 2027 and 2028. A military source indicated, “We won’t have the air defenses for the division operational before 2029.”

“BLEEDING OUT WITHIN MONTHS”

During the Cold War, Germany allocated between 3% and 4.5% of its GDP to defense, maintaining a force of 500,000 active personnel and 800,000 reserves. However, the Bundeswehr has failed to meet the 2018 target of 203,000 troops and currently faces a shortfall of approximately 20,000 regular soldiers, as reported by the defense ministry.

Since the suspension of conscription in 2011, there has been a pressing need for more reservists. In November, Scholz’s government enacted a law requiring young men to complete a questionnaire regarding their willingness to serve, with the aim of eventually increasing the number of reservists by 200,000. This would allow Germany to rapidly scale its military to around 460,000 troops in the event of conflict—almost double its current capacity.

“Considering the casualty rates we are anticipating, the Bundeswehr will be depleted within months,” stated CDU lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter, a former colonel in the German military, who refrained from disclosing specific rates. His CDU colleague Wadephul emphasized the necessity for Germany to maintain a combat-ready force of approximately 250,000 active troops and 500,000 reserves.

Recent polling indicates that a coalition between the CDU and the SPD is the most probable outcome of the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, smaller radical parties such as the AfD and BSW may be positioned to create a blocking minority, potentially controlling one-third of the parliamentary seats.

This scenario could hinder the establishment of new special funds aimed at increasing investments in the Bundeswehr. Additionally, the military’s preparedness could be challenged if Trump negotiates a deal regarding Ukraine that requires European nations to contribute troops for a ceasefire.

Joe Weingarten, an SPD lawmaker with a focus on defense issues, raised concerns by asking, “Considering the length of the frontline, how many brigades will we need to supply?” He emphasized that this would add to existing commitments.