Gulf states that have long sought to suppress Islamic political movements perceived as threats to their authority are now shifting their stance, potentially engaging with a Syrian government led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is supported by Turkey and is seeking to establish relations with the United States.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt have been taken aback by what an Egyptian diplomat described to Middle East Eye as HTS’s “rapid rebranding,” given its history as an al-Qaeda affiliate.

Additionally, the UAE has expressed concern over the US’s efforts to establish backchannel communications with HTS through Turkey, as noted by a senior Western official.

Prior to HTS’s swift campaign to capture Damascus, the UAE was facilitating discussions between Bashar al-Assad’s government and the US. The UAE aimed to negotiate a significant agreement that would allow the Assad regime to remain in power while easing US sanctions in exchange for Assad’s commitment to halt Iranian arms supplies.

A senior Western official involved in Syrian affairs said, “The Emiratis are extremely frustrated. The Americans are aligning themselves with the Turks. The UAE has invested heavily in Assad and is left with nothing to show for it.”

This growing skepticism mirrors the sentiments following the 2011 Arab Spring, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE opposed popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes in the region and accused Turkey and Qatar of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

Aron Lund, a Syria expert at Century International, remarked, “Leaders who are already anxious about Islamist movements akin to the Muslim Brotherhood will now face a situation that resembles a more extreme and unpredictable version of it.”

In recent years, Middle Eastern leaders who previously found themselves on opposing sides of proxy conflicts, such as in Libya, have attempted to mend their relationships. Saudi Arabia has strengthened its ties with Qatar, although Doha’s relationship with Abu Dhabi, while improved since the blockade, still experiences tension.

In 2024, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, who removed the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood president Mohammad Morsi from power, held two meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan expressed his support for Morsi and notably stated, “I will never engage with someone like him,” in reference to Sisi.

The delicate truce between Sisi and Erdogan may face challenges now that HTS has taken control of Damascus, a significant cultural and economic center in the Arab world.

“Turkey’s influence is clearly increasing,” remarked the Egyptian diplomat. “HTS embodies a more profound Islamic identity than the Muslim Brotherhood ever aspired to. The Muslim Brotherhood could thrive in Syria.”

Only option available

With the strategies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE aimed at rehabilitating Assad now concluded, analysts suggest that the Gulf states have limited alternatives but to engage with HTS and adapt to Turkey’s growing influence.

Reports indicate that HTS’s political affairs office held discussions with the ambassadors from Egypt, the UAE, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.

Qatar, which has opposed normalization with Assad, announced plans to reopen its embassy in Damascus. Qatar has previously acted as a mediator between the US and various groups deemed “Islamist,” including the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hamas in Gaza.

Gulf leaders are wary that leftover small arms and Captagon from the Assad regime in Syria could cross into their territories.

The ousting of Assad also represents a significant strategic loss for Iran, which relied on Syria as a conduit to the Mediterranean and for supplying arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s embassy in Damascus was among the few diplomatic missions that faced looting by rebels before HTS intervened to restore order.

The oil-rich Gulf states possess significant influence over HTS, which is grappling with the aftermath of Syria’s devastated economy. While Turkey has supported Syrian rebels, it is also preoccupied with its efforts to eliminate Kurdish armed factions backed by the US in northern Syria. The financially strained Turkish government lacks the resources to contribute to what the UN estimates will be a $400 billion reconstruction cost for Syria.

“This presents a crucial opportunity for Arab nations to engage, influence, and support a transitional authority that could mitigate a substantial strategic setback for Iran in the region,” stated Charles Lister, a Syria specialist at the Middle East Institute, in an interview with MEE.

US Signals Intent

The actions and statements from the US following the fall of Assad’s regime indicate a willingness to collaborate with HTS, at least temporarily.

However, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Qatar have advised the US to proceed with caution as it considers the potential lifting of sanctions on HTS, according to a Gulf official.

HTS is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, UN, and Turkey.

On Tuesday, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced that the US had requested HTS’s assistance in locating and rescuing missing American journalist Austin Tice, who is believed to have been kidnapped in Syria in 2012.

In all our interactions with parties known to communicate with HTS, we have consistently conveyed that our primary focus, as they progress through Syria liberating prisons, is the return of Austin Tice, Miller stated.

This approach sharply contrasts with the way the US engages with other groups labeled as terrorists.

US officials have contemplated the possibility of lifting the $10 million bounty on HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. A senior US official informed reporters that Washington is in dialogue with “all Syrian groups.”

In the Gulf region, there is a growing perception that the US is indicating to HTS that alignment with American interests could lead to rewards. HTS has assured Syria’s minority communities, including Christians, Kurds, and Alawites, that they will be part of the new political structure in Syria.

On Sunday, the US conducted extensive airstrikes across Syria targeting the Islamic State (IS) group. US Central Command reported that 75 IS targets were struck in areas previously controlled by Russia.

Regional officials suggest that the US likely developed this target list over the years, and Russia’s withdrawal enabled the US to engage IS, while also sending a message to HTS.

“The scale and intensity of those strikes clearly reflect US preferences, and HTS is in urgent need of US backing,” remarked a Gulf official.