This week, Russia announced its capture of the resource-rich town of Kurakhove in eastern Ukraine, marking a significant advance in the region nearly three years into the ongoing conflict.

While Ukraine has initiated a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk, causing distress among local residents, Moscow’s forces have continued to achieve gradual progress in eastern Ukraine. This protracted conflict seems to be affecting the morale of Ukrainian troops, who are grappling with manpower shortages amid continuous Russian assaults.

Recent data indicates a notable increase in the toll that this war is exacting on both sides in what has become Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. Experts report that Russia acquired Ukrainian territory equivalent to twice the size of Mauritius in 2024. However, the question remains: what were the military losses incurred during this expansion?

In 2024, Russian forces reportedly seized 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles) of Ukrainian land, as evidenced by geolocated data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based in Washington, DC.

This area is twice the size of Mauritius and five times larger than New York City.

The territorial gains made by Russia in 2024 primarily consist of agricultural land and small settlements, in addition to areas reclaimed from Ukraine in Kursk, according to the ISW.

Furthermore, Russia successfully captured four mid-sized settlements: Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove, as reported by the ISW.

What is the reported number of soldiers lost by Russia, according to Ukraine?

Regarding military casualties, as of December 30, 2024, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii stated that 427,000 Russian soldiers had either died or been injured during the conflict in 2024.

In a statement released on January 2, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry estimated Russian losses for the previous year at 430,790 soldiers.

Based on the latest figures, Russian casualties in 2024 averaged approximately 1,180 per day, translating to about 103 losses for every square kilometer gained.

Ukraine reports that Russian military losses have escalated as the year drew to a close. The Defence Ministry indicated that the peak losses occurred in November, totaling 45,720, followed by December with 48,670. The exact breakdown of fatalities versus injuries among these Russian soldiers remains uncertain, leaving the total number of those removed from combat unclear.

How many soldiers did Russia lose? What others say?

Regarding Russian military casualties, the independent Russian outlet Mediazona has confirmed at least 31,481 Russian soldiers’ deaths from January 1, 2024, to December 17, 2024. Mediazona employs open-source research methods to compile the names of the deceased, corroborating the data through obituaries, family posts, local authority statements, and other public records.

The website notes that the figures for 2024 are considered “preliminary conclusions,” suggesting that the year is on track to be the deadliest of the conflict. While definitive proof is still pending, the emergence of casualty data often experiences significant delays.

Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House, remarked to Al Jazeera that Russian fatalities are likely exceeding 100,000. Conversely, Ukrainian commander Syrskii stated in a December 17 interview with Le Monde that the number of Russian troops in Ukraine seems to be on the rise.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at Crisis Group, pointed out that such statements from Syrskii prompt inquiries about how Russian troop levels can increase despite substantial losses. He questioned whether this is due to an effective Russian recruitment strategy or if the actual casualty figures are lower than reported.

Why is it difficult to verify death tolls?

The challenge in verifying death tolls stems partly from the significant propaganda implications these numbers hold for both sides.

There exists a conflict of narratives from both parties involved. Each side employs statistics to showcase its achievements on the battlefield while attempting to discredit the opposing side. According to Ignatov in an interview with Al Jazeera, these narratives are integral to the ongoing conflict.

On December 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed via a Telegram post that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had perished in combat since the war’s onset in February 2022. The last reported figure from him was in February 2024, when he stated that 31,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed. This indicates that approximately 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives in combat over a span of about ten months in 2024.

However, both Russia and Ukraine do not consistently release data regarding their military casualties.

This lack of transparency is intended to prevent the opposing side from gaining insights into the effectiveness of their military strategies, as noted by Marina Miron, a researcher at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, in an October interview with Al Jazeera.

Such tactics are not unusual in wartime; for example, during World War II, both sides typically underreported their own casualties by half while inflating enemy losses by two to three times, according to Miron.

Additional complexities arise as a soldier’s death is only confirmed once the body is recovered, after which the relevant defense ministry notifies the family.

Miron also pointed out that if a government does not officially recognize a soldier as deceased, it can evade the obligation to compensate the families of the fallen.

Are Russian casualties at a historic high?

Regardless of the precise number of Russian military fatalities in the conflict, particularly in 2024, experts agree that the casualty figures for Russia are unprecedented, marking the highest levels since World War II. During that war, an estimated 8.7 million Soviet military personnel were killed, the highest toll for any nation. Among the 15 Soviet republics, Russia suffered the greatest losses, with approximately 6.7 million soldiers killed.

Russian casualties in Ukraine appear to be significantly higher than previously estimated, according to Ash.

He noted that the repercussions for Russian society will be long-lasting. “Consider the human toll, along with the healthcare and economic implications for the workforce,” he stated. Ash further explained that this situation “partly accounts for the current tight labor markets in Russia and the high levels of wage-price inflation.”

“Russia was already facing a challenging demographic situation, and this conflict has exacerbated it considerably.”

Regarding the territorial gains in 2024, experts suggest that the advancements made by both Russia and Ukraine hold limited strategic value for either nation.

“Ukraine can continue to thrive economically without the territories currently under Russian control, but what truly matters is ensuring security for the rest of Ukraine. This is why the terms of any peace agreement are crucial for Ukraine,” Ash remarked.

“For Russia, the territories gained offer minimal economic or strategic benefits,” he added.

In fact, Ash contended that the occupied Ukrainian regions “will impose a significant burden on the Russian economy in terms of reconstruction costs.”

“This comes at a time when the Russian economy is already constrained by sanctions,” he noted.

Ignatov emphasized that territorial gains by either party are not the primary focus of the conflict. Rather, he described it as a war of attrition, where the key factors are casualties, resources, and infrastructure.

He noted that neither side seems to be inclined towards a ceasefire at this point. With increasing manpower losses, Ignatov indicated that Moscow could encounter difficulties in 2025. “The sustainability of the Russian recruitment model remains uncertain, and it is unclear whether Russia will need to mobilize this year,” he stated.