Iran May Opt for the Combat-Tested J-10C Fighters Instead of the Su-35 Agreement with Moscow

In a strategic shift that could alter the aerial dynamics in the Middle East, Iran is reportedly considering the purchase of the Chinese-manufactured J-10C “Vigorous Dragon,” a highly advanced 4.5-generation multirole fighter jet that has already earned the nickname “Rafale Killer” in defense discussions within the region.

This increasing interest follows widely reported assertions that Pakistan’s J-10C fighters, equipped with PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles, successfully downed three Indian Air Force Rafales during a four-day aerial engagement last month—a claim that, if verified, would significantly disrupt the regional airpower balance.

The recent visit of Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh to Qingdao, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit—an alliance led by Russia and China—has coincided with heightened speculation regarding Tehran’s evolving procurement strategy.

The SCO, often perceived as a Eurasian counterbalance to NATO, comprises key regional military players including India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus, making it a significant platform for discreet defense diplomacy.

Delays in efforts to acquire the Russian-made Su-35

Iran’s interest in the J-10C is reportedly driven by growing dissatisfaction over ongoing delays in its efforts to acquire the Russian-made Su-35 “Flanker-E,” a 4.5-generation heavyweight fighter initially ordered by Egypt but redirected after Cairo canceled the deal under U.S. pressure.

In light of an increasingly unstable strategic landscape following a 12-day high-intensity conflict with Israel, Iranian military strategists are believed to be assessing the J-10C as a viable and combat-tested alternative should the Su-35 acquisition continue to face setbacks.

Iran’s air force, which remains heavily dependent on aging platforms like the F-4 Phantom and MiG-29—many of which are over fifty years old—urgently requires modern fighter jets to bridge its significant airpower gap with regional rivals such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The J-10C has established an impressive battlefield reputation during the recent India-Pakistan conflict, as noted by defense analysts, which has elevated the Chinese fighter to the forefront of Tehran’s options. Armed with the PL-15E, China’s advanced BVR missile, the J-10C utilized by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) reportedly shot down not only three Rafales but also a Su-30MKI, a MiG-29, and a Mirage 2000—an extraordinary achievement if confirmed.

Although these assertions are disputed by Indian sources, they have captivated global military observers and enhanced the J-10C’s standing in combat against Western aircraft. Developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC), the J-10C is now under significant scrutiny, particularly following its showcase at the 2025 Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition (LIMA) in Malaysia.

At LIMA 2025, the J-10CE—an export version of the J-10C—attracted considerable attention and media coverage at the China pavilion, with state-affiliated Global Times reporting that international delegates and military analysts gathered to observe the jet’s capabilities up close. “The J-10CE fighter aircraft, which is the export variant of the J-10C, was the main attraction at the China booth (at LIMA 2025) after achieving success in real combat,” the Chinese media outlet stated, highlighting the model’s increasing reputation.

Since its official entry into the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in 2006, the J-10 series has transformed into one of China’s key air combat assets, with around 220 J-10C units in operation as of mid-2025.

Representing the pinnacle of the J-10 series, the J-10C incorporates a robust indigenous WS-10B turbofan engine, complete digital fly-by-wire control, and a state-of-the-art avionics suite—providing improved maneuverability and combat readiness across various mission profiles.

Unlike its predecessors, the J-10C is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, significantly enhancing its situational awareness and target acquisition capabilities in contested environments.

Aerodynamically, it boasts a canard-delta configuration that allows for exceptional agility in both dogfighting and high-altitude interception roles, further solidifying its status among the most proficient non-stealth fighters globally.

Military analysts often draw comparisons between the performance envelope of the J-10C and that of the American F-16, although some contend it displays “Lavi DNA”—a reference to the Israeli Lavi program from which it purportedly derives certain design principles.

Pakistan’s acquisition of the J-10C, confirmed in 2022, was specifically aimed at air superiority roles, benefiting from the integration of the PL-15—an air-to-air missile co-developed with Russian expertise, designed to compete with the American AIM-120 AMRAAM.

With a reported engagement range of 200 to 300 km in its domestic variant and approximately 145 km for the export-configured PL-15E, the missile provides the J-10C with a significant edge in first-launch scenarios, particularly in beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagements.

PL-15E direct rival to the AIM-120C-7

China’s defense industry has positioned the PL-15E as a direct rival to the AIM-120C-7 and even the newer D variant, offering cost-effective lethality with strong export potential to nations such as Iran, Egypt, and potentially buyers in Southeast Asia.

These developments further highlight China’s increasing ambition to lead the global fighter export market, posing a challenge to the aerospace dominance of the U.S., France, and Russia, especially in emerging markets.

Iran, which reportedly finalized its plan to acquire Su-35s from Russia in late 2023 via the state-affiliated Tasnim news agency, has since encountered new uncertainties as Moscow’s delivery schedules remain unclear.

Egypt’s initial Su-35 agreement, valued at over USD 2 billion (approximately RM9.4 billion), fell apart due to Washington’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), leaving dozens of completed jets in a state of geopolitical uncertainty.

Russia is said to have re-offered these aircraft to Iran in return for Tehran’s increasing military assistance in Ukraine, which has included thousands of Shahed-136 suicide drones and, more recently, ballistic missiles targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.

While the Su-35 appears to be an appealing option on paper—boasting Irbis-E radar, 3D thrust-vectoring, and robust AL-41F1S engines—its delivery risks and political implications have made the J-10C more attractive to Tehran’s decision-makers.

Chinese defense exports advantage

Additionally, Chinese defense exports encounter fewer diplomatic obstacles compared to Russian equipment, facilitating quicker and more discreet procurement processes, particularly in light of tightening Western sanctions.

If Iran proceeds with a formal J-10C acquisition, it would be a significant shift in the nation’s defense procurement strategy, bringing it closer to China’s military-industrial complex and indicating a reduced reliance on Russian aerospace technology.

Such a decision would not only enhance the credibility of China’s defense sector but also strengthen Beijing’s defense relationships in the Gulf—introducing a new aspect to its strategic encirclement of Western-aligned military alliances in the region.

As regional tensions escalate—from Israeli airstrikes to American sanctions—Iran’s shift towards the J-10C could transform its air deterrence strategy, possibly intensifying an arms race throughout the Middle East.

While Tehran considers its options amid Russian delays and Chinese dependability, the decision between the Su-35 and the J-10C could significantly influence the Islamic Republic’s airpower direction for the next twenty years.

It remains uncertain whether China’s “Rafale Killer” will ultimately serve as the new primary fighter for the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF)—however, one fact is evident: the global arms market is observing closely.