Jordan is prepared to take military action against Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempts to forcibly relocate Palestinians into its territory, according to a report by Middle East Eye.

This warning follows repeated comments from US President Donald Trump, who has expressed a desire for Jordan and Egypt to accept Palestinians as part of a strategy to “clean out” the Gaza Strip.

Sources in both Amman and Jerusalem indicate that while Jordan is not seeking conflict and prefers a diplomatic resolution, it is resolute in its stance to close the border should refugees begin to enter the country.

If Israel attempts to reopen the border, it would be considered “a casus belli,” according to one source.

Although Jordan recognizes the challenges of engaging in a war with Israel, it feels compelled to respond if necessary.

In response to clear warnings from Amman regarding any forced movement of Palestinians, Jordan previously deployed additional battalions to its western borders, emphasizing that such actions would violate the 1994 peace treaty with Israel.

In turn, Israel has established a new eastern division to secure its border with Jordan.

One source highlighted that Trump’s proposal poses an “existential issue” for both Jordan and the Hashemite monarchy, noting that the country ranks as the third-poorest globally in terms of water resources.

Approximately 12 million individuals reside primarily in a narrow corridor along the Israeli border, adjacent to the Jordan River. Officials have indicated that the country would struggle to manage a substantial influx of refugees.

Critical Boundary for Jordan

Although Israel, with its significantly superior military capabilities, might achieve a swift conventional victory, it would face the challenge of maintaining control over a vast territory with an open desert frontier to the east.

The Israeli-Jordanian border extends for 400 kilometers, nearly the entire length of Jordan, and is ten times longer than Israel’s border with Gaza. Much of this border region is characterized by mountainous and rugged terrain, making effective policing extremely difficult.

This situation raises the possibility of a prolonged guerrilla warfare scenario similar to what ultimately led to the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. Such a conflict would likely attract fighters from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab nations, especially given Jordan’s open desert border to the east.

For many years, Jordan has been a stabilizing force along Israel’s eastern border, a stability that would disappear instantly in the event of war.

Relations between the two nations have been strained. The Jordanian government has openly expressed its growing alarm over the violence in Gaza and the wave of settler violence and ethnic cleansing occurring in the West Bank.

Shortly after the onset of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, King Abdullah of Jordan stated, “Regarding the issue of refugees coming to Jordan… that is a red line.”

However, just last week, Trump announced that he had spoken with King Abdullah, expressing his desire for Jordan to accept more refugees as part of a plan to “clean out” 1.5 million individuals from the Gaza Strip.

During discussions with European officials in Brussels on Wednesday, King Abdullah emphasized Jordan’s steadfast position on the importance of establishing Palestinians in their homeland and securing their rightful entitlements, in line with the two-state solution.

Similarly, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated on Monday that any proposals regarding an alternative homeland for Palestinians are firmly rejected.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Trump administration has already reduced US aid to Jordan, raising concerns that the restoration of aid may hinge on Jordan’s acceptance of Palestinian refugees. Additionally, the presence of US military bases in Jordan adds another layer of complexity.

An influx of refugees could disrupt the country’s fragile ethnic balance. Over 2 million Jordanians are officially recognized as Palestinian refugees, with some estimates suggesting that the actual number could be significantly higher, potentially representing a majority of the population.

Instability and ethnic tensions

The swift arrival of refugees in Jordan during the Nakba in 1948 and again in 1967 culminated in Black September in 1970, when the Hashemite monarchy suppressed Palestinian factions that were perceived as threats to state control.

Reports indicate that Jordan is apprehensive that a new wave of refugees could trigger civil unrest. The existing population is already frustrated by the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and an influx of refugees from Gaza and the West Bank would likely exacerbate the situation.

On Saturday, senior diplomats from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar convened in Cairo and firmly opposed any forcible displacement of Palestinians.

In a joint statement, they expressed, “We strongly reject any efforts to undermine the inalienable rights of Palestinians, whether through settlement expansion, evictions, land annexation, or any actions that seek to remove land from its rightful owners, regardless of the circumstances or justifications.”

Proposals to relocate Palestinians to Jordan have historical roots, tracing back to the Allon Plan, named after Israeli politician Yigal Allon. Following the 1967 war, Allon advocated for the annexation of significant portions of the West Bank.

The Hashemite Kingdom also holds the responsibility of safeguarding the Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem. Any attempt to demolish the Dome of the Rock or Al-Aqsa Mosque to construct a third Jewish temple—a goal pursued by various far-right factions in Israel—would be considered a serious provocation, according to sources.

Alarmingly, even Pete Hegseth, the newly appointed defense secretary under Trump, has irresponsibly suggested the construction of a third Jewish temple on the site of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.