North Korea is reportedly ramping up missile production for Russia’s use in Ukraine, according to researchers

North Korea is reportedly enhancing a significant weapons manufacturing facility that produces a type of short-range missile utilized by Russia in Ukraine, according to findings from a U.S.-based think tank that analyzed satellite imagery.

This facility, referred to as the February 11 plant, is part of the Ryongsong Machine Complex located in Hamhung, the second-largest city in North Korea, situated along the eastern coast.

Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, indicated that this plant is the sole known producer of the Hwasong-11 series of solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian officials have identified these munitions, known in the West as the KN-23, as being employed by Russian forces during their operations in Ukraine. The recent expansion of this complex has not been previously disclosed.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have refuted claims that North Korea has supplied weapons for Russia’s use in Ukraine, which was invaded in February 2022. In June, Russia and North Korea formalized a mutual defense agreement during a summit and committed to strengthening their military cooperation.

North Korea’s delegation to the United Nations did not provide a comment regarding this report.

Satellite imagery captured in early October by Planet Labs indicates the construction of an additional assembly building and a new housing facility, likely for workers, as analyzed by researchers at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). The analysis also suggests that Pyongyang is enhancing the entrances to some underground facilities within the complex.

The removal of a disused bridge crane that previously obstructed access to a tunnel entrance implies a potential focus on that area of the facility, according to Lair.

“This indicates a significant effort to increase the operational capacity of this factory,” Lair noted.

The new assembly building is estimated to be approximately 60 to 70 percent the size of the earlier structure used for missile assembly.

In 2023, state media released images, depicting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un touring new buildings at the Hamhung complex, where workers were seen assembling tail kits and nose cones for what analysts believe to be the KN-23.

Historically, publicly available videos from North Korean state media have shown that the complex has produced a range of items, including tank wheels and rocket motor casings, according to Lair.

LOW-FLYING MISSILES

The KN-23 missile was initially tested in May 2019 and is engineered to bypass missile defense systems by operating on a lower, “depressed” flight path, according to experts. This capability may prove advantageous for Russia as it looks for methods to breach Ukraine’s air defenses.

Since the onset of the invasion, Russia has launched thousands of missiles. Relying on North Korea for supplementary supplies could alleviate pressure on its domestic production capabilities, as noted by Lair.

North Korea’s state-run news agency, KCNA, has announced that construction is currently taking place at the Ryongsong Machine Complex. This month, KCNA reported that the facility is actively pursuing modernization projects scheduled for completion this year. The efforts include renovating production facilities and assembling and installing equipment in machine workshops and a steel casting workshop.

Researchers from SI Analytics, a South Korean satellite imagery company utilizing AI technology for image analysis, have also verified the ongoing construction at the February 11 plant. In a report released on Monday, they indicated that some of the construction near the loading area is likely intended to obscure future factory operations from satellite observation.

“Given the abundance of construction materials, vehicles, and open-top freight cars loaded with supplies in the vicinity, the construction appears to be advancing swiftly,” the firm stated. The report indicated that the facility is involved in the production of ballistic missiles, although it did not specifically mention the KN-23.

Michael Duitsman, a research associate at CNS, indicated that the new construction observed in the satellite images might be a storage facility; however, he suggested it is more probable that it is a new assembly building.

While North Korean missiles represent only a small portion of Russia’s strikes in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, their reported use has raised concerns in both Seoul and Washington. This development signals a potential shift in the nearly two-decade consensus among the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council regarding the prevention of Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program expansion.

On Monday, SI Analytics reported the identification of new construction at the nearby February 8 Vinalon Complex, which is thought to manufacture fuel for ballistic missiles. This construction could be aimed at increasing the production of solid propellants or UDMH, a crucial liquid rocket engine fuel.

Joseph Dempsey, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, noted that North Korea’s enhancement of short-range ballistic missile facilities is likely driven primarily by the intention to strengthen its own arsenal.

He also mentioned that it remains uncertain how much Pyongyang has increased its production capacity to accommodate the demands arising from its new collaboration with Moscow.

Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been stationed in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine initiated a significant cross-border offensive in August, as reported by officials from Washington, Kyiv, and Seoul.

These troops are set to serve within Russia’s airborne forces and marine units, with some already engaged in combat operations in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to a South Korean lawmaker who is a member of the parliamentary intelligence committee, speaking on Wednesday.

Russia has not refuted the presence of North Korean forces in the conflict, which has been ongoing since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.