Post-Assad Syria encounters difficulties in establishing a cohesive military force

The newly appointed defense minister of Syria‘s interim government, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has been engaging in discussions with various rebel factions across the nation, with the goal of integrating them under the authority of Syria’s defense ministry.

In a statement released on Monday, Abu Qasra indicated that these meetings are intended to create a strategic plan for enhancing the military’s organizational framework.

Following the removal of former President Bashar al-Assad last month, Syria’s new leadership declared that consolidating all rebel groups and other armed forces into a national military would be a primary focus in the post-Assad landscape.

Since the onset of the conflict in 2011, numerous rebel factions and armed groups have emerged, primarily aimed at opposing the Assad regime or safeguarding local communities.

Prior to his appointment as defense minister, Abu Qasra was a prominent commander in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group that played a crucial role in the 11-day offensive that led to Assad’s ousting on December 8, 2024.

HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and has historical connections to al-Qaida, has become the prevailing force within Syria’s new governance. Its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has recently urged all armed factions in the country to participate in a unified military effort, promising to disband HTS as part of this initiative.

Nicholas Heras, a Middle East specialist at the Washington-based New Lines Institute, noted that the caretaker government led by HTS is confronting the reality of existing, heavily armed, and well-organized factions within Syria that harbor skepticism about its intentions and do not recognize it as a legitimate successor to the Assad regime.

“The outcome of Syria’s multi-factional civil war is that, despite HTS’s relative strength compared to other armed groups in western Syria, the HTS-led caretaker government remains constrained in its resources and operates under a cloud of distrust and terrorist designations from influential foreign entities,” he stated in an interview with VOA.

One of the primary groups the interim government aims to incorporate into the Defense Ministry is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The SDF, a Kurdish-led military coalition, has been a crucial ally for the U.S. in combating the Islamic State terrorist organization. It governs a significant area in northeast Syria, but Turkey regards it as a terrorist group and has pledged to dismantle it unless its members disarm. Following the fall of Assad, Turkish-backed Syrian proxies have escalated their confrontations with the SDF in northern Syria, forcing them out of several towns in Aleppo province.

The SDF has declared that it will not disarm without a credible political process in Syria, one that allows it to significantly influence the country’s future military landscape. Recently, a meeting occurred between Syria’s de facto leader al-Sharaa and SDF representatives in Damascus, although the specifics of their discussions remain undisclosed.

“While I believe the group aims to act in the best interest of the Syrian people and the nation, it would be unwise for the SDF to disarm unilaterally when facing an existential threat from a formidable military like Turkey, along with the resurgence of the Islamic State and other non-state armed groups,” remarked Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group.

The primary concern of the SDF is survival, as Syria is a nation where minority groups cannot easily relinquish their arms, even with government assurances of security, he stated.

Analyst Heras points out that HTS currently faces challenges in exerting control over Syria. The Druze community in Sweida remains skeptical about HTS’s ability to manage the more radical factions within its coalition. The SDF is unlikely to relinquish its regional autonomy, and various groups, including the Southern Operations Room, Turkish-backed Turkmen factions in northern Syria, Christian militias in Homs, and the emerging Alawite clans along the coastal mountains, are all vying for a role in Syria’s future.

He noted that many militias in Syria, including those from the Sunni Arab community, desire HTS to claim the credit for delivering a decisive blow to the Assad regime and then withdraw, allowing a new Syrian state to emerge. However, there is a prevailing belief among these militias that HTS aims to supplant the Baath Party with its own brand of authoritarian rule.

Myles Caggins, a former spokesperson for the global coalition against IS, emphasized that the new Syrian government must adopt inclusive measures to gain international backing.

“Syria needs to establish a government that upholds human rights, safeguards minority rights, and fosters inclusivity, particularly within its security forces,” he remarked. “Only then can Syria quickly regain its significance on the international stage.”