Removal of Ukrainian forces from Kursk by Russia eliminates an obstacle to achieving peace.

The expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region by Russia marks the conclusion of the largest incursion into Russian territory since World War II, eliminating a significant obstacle to a peace agreement that Moscow was hesitant to finalize with a substantial enemy presence on its land.

Following the announcement of the successful Kursk operation, President Vladimir Putin proclaimed a unilateral three-day ceasefire to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II. Two anonymous Russian sources informed Reuters that the Kremlin found it unacceptable to resolve the conflict while Ukrainian troops remained in Kursk.

Just over two years after Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine launched its most ambitious offensive on August 6, breaching the Russian border into the Kursk region, bolstered by numerous drones and advanced Western weaponry. At its peak, Ukrainian forces claimed control over nearly 1,400 square kilometers of Kursk, but the operation proved to be costly for Kyiv.

Since then, Russia has gained approximately 2,000 square kilometers in Ukraine, now controlling an area nearly equivalent to the size of Pennsylvania, as per Ukrainian open-source maps. Some analysts suggest that Russia’s rapid progress, particularly in eastern Ukraine, was facilitated by the diversion of Ukrainian forces to Kursk.

Christopher McCallion, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington DC think tank advocating for a robust U.S. military with a cautious foreign policy, remarked, ‘Essentially, Ukraine traded territory it values the most – its own – for territory it didn’t value and that it couldn’t hold indefinitely.’

Despite weeks of retreat, Ukraine claims to still have some active forces in Kursk and argues that the incursion diverted Russian attention from further advances on the eastern front by necessitating the deployment of Russian troops elsewhere. Kyiv has also stated that its objectives included safeguarding its Sumy border region and acquiring territory that could be exchanged in future peace negotiations.

Current negotiations, facilitated by Washington’s diplomatic efforts, are in progress, albeit without the leverage Ukraine had hoped for. Significant disparities persist that could jeopardize U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace initiative. Should the discussions falter, Russian forces are expected to continue their military actions, according to one source.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military general staff refuted claims that hostilities had ceased in the Kursk region, asserting that their defensive operations are ongoing. Recently, Russia has intensified its assaults in Sumy, which borders Kursk, as reported by local officials.

A Russian missile strike on April 14 resulted in the deaths of 35 individuals in Sumy’s capital. Russia claimed the attack was aimed at a gathering of Ukrainian soldiers. Despite skepticism in Ukraine regarding the value of the Kursk offensive, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has confirmed that Ukrainian forces are now active in Russia’s Belgorod region, also bordering Ukraine, framing it as a measure to safeguard Ukrainian towns.

Russia currently holds portions of land across the border from Belgorod in Kharkiv. According to U.S. proposals, Ukraine could regain full control of its territory in Kharkiv as part of a peace agreement, while Russia would maintain control over nearly one-fifth of Ukraine.

Largest tank battle

For the Kremlin, the incursion into Kursk, the site of the largest tank battle in history between Soviet and Nazi forces in 1943, represents a significant embarrassment. The announcement of a victory over Ukrainian troops coincides with the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s triumph over the Nazis on May 9, providing President Putin with a narrative to present to distinguished guests, including China’s Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Despite earlier alerts about a potential attack, Russian forces were caught off guard by the Ukrainian offensive, as reported by Russian sources. Officials described a state of disarray as civilians fled eastward while border guards and military personnel attempted to confront agile Ukrainian units equipped with Western arms on the roads of Kursk. Over 120,000 individuals were evacuated, and a visibly frustrated Putin was seen publicly reprimanding the then-governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, who was arrested in April for allegedly embezzling funds meant for border defense, a charge he denies.

North Korean artillery and troops assisted Russia in its defense in Kursk, with Putin personally thanking North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for the support. According to Russia’s defense ministry, Ukrainian forces incurred over 76,000 casualties and lost more than 412 tanks among thousands of military vehicles. Conversely, Ukraine asserts that Russia faced over 62,000 casualties during the conflict. Both sides have refrained from disclosing their own casualty figures, and the accuracy of these claims remains unverified.

Counteroffensive

In August, as Ukrainian forces hurried to expand their territory in Kursk, Russia deployed units to the region to impede their progress and safeguard the Kurchatov nuclear power station, which provides a significant portion of electricity to southern Russia. Within a month, the front lines stabilized, allowing Russia to launch a counteroffensive.

David J. Betz, a professor of modern warfare at King’s College London, remarked to Reuters, ‘There were likely some very embarrassed Russian generals, but the Ukrainian incursion was chaotic and frankly irrational.’ He noted that while Russia has a strong history of self-defense, it often relies on manpower and distance rather than geographical advantages, unlike more fortunate nations.

Gradually, Russian forces began to weaken Ukrainian defenses, deploying thousands of fiber-optic drones that are more resistant to jamming, according to both Russian and Western sources. Within three months, Russia had reduced the area under Ukrainian control by more than half, with Ukrainian maps indicating that by February 6, the territory held by Ukraine had shrunk to 428 square kilometers.

On the third anniversary of its invasion, as Russian forces launched attacks, Putin made a surprise visit to Kursk in military attire, instructing top military officials to intensify their offensive and proposing the establishment of a buffer zone along the Ukrainian border. In March, Ukraine lost over 300 square kilometers of territory it had previously controlled in Kursk.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief general overseeing the war, informed Putin on Sunday that Kursk had been cleared following the expulsion of the last Ukrainian units from the village of Gornal near the border.

He stated that Ukraine had deployed 60,000 soldiers in Kursk during the peak of the operation, which weakened its other military units, and commended North Korean forces for fighting alongside their Russian allies in Kursk.

Gerasimov informed Putin that, following his directives, Russian troops were ‘persisting’ in establishing a buffer zone and had captured 90 square kilometers of Ukraine’s Sumy region.