Saudi Arabia is willing to act as a mediator between the Trump administration and Iran in an effort to establish a new agreement aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, according to CNN.

The kingdom is apprehensive that Iran might be more likely to pursue nuclear weapons now that its regional proxies, which have historically served as a deterrent against Israeli aggression, have been considerably diminished. Saudi Arabia aims to utilize its strong relationship with President Donald Trump to facilitate a diplomatic connection between Iran and the White House.

It remains uncertain whether Saudi Arabia has formally proposed this mediation, but the initiative highlights Riyadh’s intention to capitalize on its improved relations with its former adversary and to secure a role in the discussions for a potential new agreement.

While Trump has expressed a desire to negotiate a new deal, Iran’s response has been ambiguous, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating last week that engaging in talks with the United States was “not wise.”

Publicly, Saudi Arabia supported the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and global powers, but privately harbored frustrations over the Obama administration’s inability to address its concerns regarding Tehran’s regional activities—especially its missile program and proxy forces in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, which Riyadh perceived as threats to regional security. Subsequently, it welcomed Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.

A year following Trump’s exit from the deal, Saudi Arabia experienced a significant drone and missile attack on its oil facilities, which halved the crude production of the world’s largest oil exporter. The Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attack, while the US attributed it to Iran, ultimately refraining from military action to defend its Saudi ally.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have notably diminished in recent months. In March 2023, the two nations unexpectedly announced a normalization of relations through an agreement facilitated by China. Saudi officials regard this development as a significant achievement, asserting that Riyadh has benefited from it—Houthi attacks on Saudi territory have ceased, and the kingdom avoided involvement in last year’s reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran, despite concerns that Tehran might target Gulf Arab oil facilities if its own were attacked by Israel.

In the last 15 months, Israel has effectively diminished the influence of Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon and Gaza, while also conducting strikes in Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen. Coupled with the decline of the Assad regime in Syria, these events have severely undermined Iran’s capacity to extend its influence beyond its borders.

Saudi officials perceive the current regional dynamics as a unique opportunity to reduce tensions with Iran and enhance diplomatic relations, emphasizing their desire to avoid any involvement in conflicts instigated by the United States or Israel against Iran.

They are also wary that a pressured Tehran might be more inclined to pursue nuclear weapons, viewing a new nuclear agreement as a preventive measure. They believe that a significantly weakened Iran does not align with Saudi interests, as Riyadh has adjusted its foreign policy to focus on economic priorities and sees further regional instability as a barrier to advancement.

A ‘grand celebration in the Middle East’

Since resuming office, Trump has expressed his intention to negotiate a new agreement with Iran. He has, albeit reluctantly, intensified sanctions related to the country’s nuclear program while stating his desire to reach a deal and improve bilateral relations.

“I want Iran to be a prosperous and successful nation, but one that cannot possess a nuclear weapon. Claims that the United States, in collaboration with Israel, plans to obliterate Iran are greatly exaggerated,” Trump stated on Truth Social last week.

He expressed, “I would greatly favor a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which would allow Iran to develop and thrive in peace. We should initiate efforts towards this immediately and celebrate with a significant event in the Middle East once it is finalized. God Bless the Middle East!”

With Iran’s economy severely impacted by US sanctions, President Masoud Pezeshkian – who campaigned last year on a platform of global reconciliation – faces mounting pressure from his reformist supporters and ordinary Iranians to address a declining currency, high youth unemployment, and persistent power shortages.

However, signals from Tehran have been inconsistent. Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials have consistently expressed their readiness to engage with the Trump administration regarding a new agreement and indicated that discussions could extend to “other issues.”

Yet, on Monday, Pezeshkian raised doubts about Trump’s genuine interest in pursuing a new nuclear agreement. Additionally, last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who possesses ultimate authority over state matters, stated that negotiations with the US were “not smart, wise, or honorable,” referencing the US withdrawal from the 2015 agreement. Nevertheless, he did not explicitly prohibit communication with Washington.

Riyadh’s Expanding Role on the Global Stage

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, noted that although Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is fundamentally rooted in its strategic partnership with the United States, Riyadh has actively pursued a diversification of its diplomatic options on both regional and international fronts. This approach enables the kingdom to exhibit flexibility and pragmatism as situations evolve.

He pointed out that by expressing a willingness to mediate between President Trump and Iran, Saudi Arabia is subtly distancing itself from Trump’s stringent pressure tactics against Tehran. However, he cautioned that the persistent mistrust between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it improbable for this initiative to progress beyond mere diplomatic gestures.

The dynamics of Riyadh’s relationship with Trump, particularly the influence of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), may face challenges due to the president’s contentious proposal for the US to “take over” Gaza and displace its Palestinian residents. This plan could jeopardize the normalization efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which have been vigorously championed by both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Recently, Trump expressed optimism regarding Saudi-Israeli normalization, suggesting that Riyadh was not insisting on an independent Palestinian state as a condition. In response, Saudi Arabia promptly rejected any proposals that involve the displacement of Palestinians, reiterating that normalization cannot occur without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Despite these tensions, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Trump remains robust. While other US allies navigate cautiously to avoid antagonizing him, the kingdom’s international stature and influence are likely to continue to rise during Trump’s presidency. Trump has even indicated that Saudi Arabia could be the site of his first foreign visit as president, where MBS might unexpectedly assume the role of mediator between the US and Russia in efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Europe, the largest since World War II.