A senior security official from Taiwan has indicated that China is enhancing its ability to swiftly transition from military exercises to a full-scale offensive. This assessment reflects the Taipei government’s interpretation of Beijing’s recent military maneuvers surrounding the island. China, which considers Taiwan—governed democratically—as part of its territory, conducted extensive drills on Monday, asserting that these were intended as a warning against “separatist actions” in response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s national day address last week.

For the past five years, Taiwan has reported nearly daily incursions by Chinese military forces in its vicinity, which include at least four significant rounds of military exercises and ongoing “joint combat readiness patrols.” The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide a more candid perspective, stated, “They are enhancing their capability to escalate military drills into actual conflict.”

Taiwan announced that a record number of 153 Chinese aircraft participated in recent military exercises, with an additional 25 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels coming unusually close to Taiwan’s 24-mile (39-km) contiguous zone. An official remarked, “Their proximity to Taiwan has intensified pressure on the island and reduced its response time.” The official further stated, “This exercise posed a greater threat to Taiwan than we have seen previously.”

During the exercise, an official reported that China launched two missiles toward an undisclosed inland region, without elaborating on the specifics. “While they did not target Taiwan with missiles this time, they did conduct missile launch drills,” the official noted.

China’s defense ministry has not yet responded to a request for comment. On Monday, it pledged to take necessary measures against Taiwan, and on Wednesday, the Taiwan Affairs Office stated that Beijing would never rule out the use of force regarding Taiwan.

A Taiwan official indicated that their intelligence had anticipated China’s drills and had positioned assets, including mobile missile launchers, in strategic locations prior to Beijing’s announcement of the military exercises early Monday morning. Lai and his administration dispute Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, asserting that only the people of Taiwan have the authority to determine their future. Lai has consistently proposed discussions, but China has dismissed these overtures.

REGULAR PATROLS

In a report presented to parliament on Thursday, Taiwan’s defense ministry indicated that China is currently conducting three to four “joint combat readiness patrols” each month in the vicinity of Taiwan. The ministry characterized this activity as a “provocation” that heightens the threat to Taiwan’s military. When questioned about the timing of China’s next military exercises, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo informed reporters that such drills could occur at any moment and under various pretexts.

“This clearly illustrates their hegemonic tendencies, which are evident to all,” Koo remarked. The military has incorporated strategies into its annual Han Kuang war games to address the need for a rapid response should China escalate its drills into an actual offensive, he noted.

A Taipei-based diplomat with knowledge of regional security matters expressed that Beijing’s military exercises pose a significant threat, as they enable China to swiftly enhance its mobilization and combat readiness. “The constant state of preparedness is escalating—transitioning from routine activities to drills and potentially to conflict can happen in an instant,” the diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the topic, stated.

Since the Republic of China government retreated to Taiwan in 1949 following its defeat in the civil war against Mao Zedong’s communists, the island has remained under the looming threat of invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army. However, the recent military exercises by China have not raised significant concern among most Taiwanese citizens, nor have they affected the island’s financial markets. In response to a lawmaker’s inquiry during a different parliamentary session on Thursday regarding the likelihood of war with China, Taiwan’s central bank governor Yang Chin-long assured that they have made “appropriate preparations,” though he did not provide further details.