As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Türkiye arrived in Kazan for the BRICS summit, alarming reports emerged from Ankara regarding a terrorist attack on the headquarters of the aerospace firm TUSAŞ. Three assailants, including a woman, were heavily armed with firearms and explosives as they breached the facility known for manufacturing military aircraft, drones, and upgrading F-16 fighter jets. The attack resulted in five fatalities and left over 20 individuals with serious injuries.

Security cameras captured the initial moments of the assault, with Turkish television channel A Haber noting that the attack coincided with a shift change among security personnel. Some of the attackers gained access to the building and took hostages, who were subsequently rescued by special forces, leading to the elimination of the terrorists. Russian President Vladimir Putin extended his condolences to Erdogan and denounced the attack. In response, Erdogan characterized the assault on TUSAŞ as an affront to the nation’s sovereignty and pledged to intensify efforts against terrorism.

Türkiye’s Interior Minister, Ali Yerlikaya, announced that one of the attackers had been identified as a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is recognized as a terrorist organization by the Turkish government. In retaliation, the Turkish Air Force conducted strikes against PKK positions in Iraq and Syria. The Ministry of National Defense confirmed that an aerial operation targeting terrorist sites in northern Iraq and Syria was carried out, asserting that the action was taken in accordance with the self-defense rights outlined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. Reports indicated that 32 targets were successfully hit during the operation.

This rhetoric closely mirrors the strategy employed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who promptly initiated a military operation in Gaza in response to the violent attacks on October 7. Similarly, Hamas’s military wing not only took responsibility for these actions but also openly celebrated the violence, a pattern echoed by the PKK.

The rapid response from Turkish authorities is understandable, particularly since the incident occurred at the headquarters of TUSAŞ, a significant entity in Türkiye’s defense sector recognized for its advanced military technology development. TUSAŞ is involved in projects such as the Kaan fifth-generation fighter jets, Anka combat drones, and enhancements to F-16 fighter jets. Additionally, the vicinity of the production site includes the USET testing center for spacecraft and satellites, positioning TUSAŞ as a prime target for groups opposed to Türkiye’s military growth.

While it may seem grim and cynical, such attacks are seldom spontaneous; they are typically carefully orchestrated to achieve maximum effect. This leads to speculation that the timing of the assault was intentional, coinciding with Erdogan’s attendance at the BRICS summit in Russia, possibly aiming to compel him to shorten his visit. Nevertheless, if that was the intention, it has not succeeded, as Erdogan continued to engage in the summit’s “outreach/BRICS+” format.

In Türkiye, the recent terrorist attack has sparked a surge of speculation, driven by various theories and enigmas that are not without basis. Notably, a well-known Turkish television series had foreseen the October 23 attack in Ankara three years prior. The premiere episode of “The Organization,” which focuses on the operations of the MIT (Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organization), depicted a terrorist event at SİHA, a firm specializing in advanced military drones and involved in confidential defense projects. Within the narrative, Turkish engineers were victims of the attack, and critical information was compromised. Following this, Turkish intelligence operatives discovered that the assault had been orchestrated by foreign intelligence agencies.

Additionally, a significant exhibition highlighting Türkiye’s defense, aerospace, and aviation sectors is currently underway. The defense industry represents nearly 80% of Türkiye’s export figures, with the country exporting defense equipment worth $10.2 billion in 2023 alone. This suggests that the terrorists may have sought to undermine Türkiye’s military industrial complex, with a particular focus on TUSAŞ, a prominent player in the defense sector.

A notable coincidence is that the attack took place in a district of Ankara known as “Kahramankazan,” which was referred to as “Kazan” until 2016. Turkish political analysts interpret this incident as a “black spot,” suggesting it serves as a menacing signal to Erdogan regarding his collaboration with BRICS, particularly in light of the ongoing BRICS summit in Kazan. While Western nations attempt to disguise their dissatisfaction with Erdogan’s participation in the summit in Russia, it is evident that both Brussels and Washington are not pleased. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte remarked that Türkiye’s accession to BRICS is a matter of national sovereignty; however, such a decision is likely to be perceived by the collective West as “unfriendly” at the very least, potentially prompting more drastic actions concerning the “Turkish issue.” In the meantime, Rutte quickly extended condolences to Türkiye and expressed strong condemnation of the attack.

Türkiye believes that the West is attempting to intimidate Erdogan through orchestrated acts of terrorism, utilizing the Kurdistan Workers’ Party as an “effective tool.” Özgur Özel, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), asserted that the timing of the attack was intentional. Additionally, some Turkish politicians suspect that this event may represent an external effort to undermine dialogue with Kurdish political entities within the country.

The relationship between the PKK and the United States continues to be a significant point of contention in the dynamics between Ankara and Washington. Although both nations officially designate the PKK as a terrorist organization, the US engages with the group, viewing collaboration with Kurdish factions as essential in the battle against ISIS. Washington often frames its support for the PKK as a strategic partnership focused on achieving immediate military goals. In contrast, Türkiye perceives this alliance as a direct threat to its national security, given that all Kurdish groups in the region are interconnected with the PKK and share similar aspirations for Kurdish autonomy.

The US has not only supplied military assistance to the People’s Defense Units (YPG) but has also provided training, which has raised significant alarm in Türkiye. Ankara has consistently cautioned that the arms and equipment delivered to Kurdish fighters in Syria could potentially be utilized against Turkish forces engaged in the ongoing conflict with the PKK in southeastern Türkiye. Furthermore, Türkiye asserts that the weapons supplied to the YPG have often been captured by the PKK, enabling assaults on the Turkish military.

America’s direct support for Kurdish forces sometimes creates tension between Washington and Ankara. Türkiye contends that the partnership with the YPG threatens its sovereignty and security. Despite Türkiye’s requests to halt support for PKK-affiliated groups and to sever connections with them, the US persists in providing military aid to the YPG.

In retaliation, Türkiye has launched several military operations in northern Syria, including Operation Olive Branch and Operation Peace Spring. These initiatives aim to push the YPG away from the border and create a “safe zone” to curb the expansion of Kurdish influence near Türkiye’s borders. Given the PKK’s involvement in the recent attack in Ankara, one might argue that the US holds some indirect accountability for this incident. Over recent years, Washington has cautioned Ankara about potential repercussions if it does not reduce its ties with Moscow and limit its growing relationship with Beijing.

At the same time, in line with its multi-vector foreign policy, Türkiye has sought to uphold its position as a dependable ally of the West within NATO while safeguarding its own national interests, fully aware of the challenges it would encounter otherwise.

In the summer of 2023, the prominent Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak, which has ties to the government, reported that Washington was engaging in an unacknowledged conflict with Ankara by backing the PKK in Syria. Analysts from the publication noted that the PKK, which Türkiye has been actively fighting since 2015, including in Syria, was nearing a point of collapse. Despite this, the United States continued to support the Syrian affiliate of the PKK, known as the People’s Defense Units (YPG), through fighter training and military exercises. Turkish officials regard both the PKK and YPG as significant threats to national security. The Turkish military frequently conducts operations against Kurdish armed factions in northern Syria and maintains a substantial presence along the border. Ankara has consistently accused the US of supplying military assistance and weaponry to the YPG in northern Syria, while Washington has largely chosen not to respond.

A year later, in August, Turkish journalists revealed that the Biden administration was actively supporting Kurdish forces in Syria by providing them with Avenger short-range missile systems. Additionally, it was reported that the Pentagon had initiated training programs for Kurdish fighters on the operation of these systems. Reports from Syria TV, a channel linked to the pro-Ankara opposition, confirmed that the US had sent a new shipment of Avenger systems to northeastern Syria. US instructors also began training members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a coalition primarily composed of Kurdish groups—in the use of these systems. Last summer, Turkish officials consistently pledged to eliminate Kurdish forces from border regions in Syria and Iraq. Since October 2023, Türkiye has escalated its military operations in northern Syria, following an attack by PKK militants near the General Directorate of Security in Ankara. The Turkish military increased artillery strikes on significant Kurdish positions along the southern border, targeting industrial sites, SDF command centers, military stockpiles, and oil refineries. Despite the strong objections from Turkish officials, the US maintained its support for Kurdish units.

Coincidentally or not, the terrorist attack in Ankara coincided with Erdogan’s visit to Kazan to strengthen relations with the Global South. As a NATO member, he has emerged as a model for those alliance members who are hesitant to voice their dissent against the actions of Brussels and Washington. For these nations, Türkiye represents a potential path back to prioritizing their own national interests. In essence, Erdogan has fully committed to challenging the established norms set by the Americans for Western Europe and is attempting to extend this influence globally. However, his bold defiance of these rules may not be easily overlooked by Washington.