The impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine as the conflict approaches its 1000th day

Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine marks its 1,000th day on Tuesday, representing a somber milestone in Europe’s most lethal conflict since World War II.

The toll on human life and infrastructure continues to escalate, rendering Ukraine more vulnerable than at any point since the conflict began. Below is an overview of the losses Ukraine has endured since the invasion commenced.

HUMAN TOLL

As of August 31, 2024, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has recorded at least 11,743 civilian fatalities and 24,614 injuries since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Both UN and Ukrainian officials indicate that the true numbers are likely much higher, due to the challenges in confirming casualties, particularly in regions like the ravaged port city of Mariupol, which is now under Russian control.

Ukrainian prosecutors reported that by November 14, 2024, 589 Ukrainian children had lost their lives.

While civilians have faced immense suffering, the overwhelming majority of casualties are military personnel: this unprecedented conventional war, fought between two similarly equipped modern armies, has resulted in staggering losses. Thousands have died in fierce combat along heavily fortified front lines, enduring relentless artillery bombardments, with tanks, armored vehicles, and infantry launching assaults on entrenched positions.

Both parties meticulously safeguard their own military casualty figures as state secrets, leading to significant discrepancies in public estimates from Western nations based on intelligence assessments. However, most estimates suggest that each side has experienced hundreds of thousands of injuries and fatalities.

Western analysts contend that Russia has incurred far greater losses than Ukraine, with reports indicating that Russia may have lost over 1,000 soldiers daily during intense combat in the eastern regions. Conversely, Ukraine, which has approximately one-third of Russia’s population, is likely to be experiencing more acute manpower shortages due to the prolonged nature of the conflict.

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In a rare acknowledgment of its military losses, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated in February 2024 that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, without providing figures for the injured or missing personnel.

Beyond the immediate casualties, the war has led to increased mortality rates from various causes throughout Ukraine, a significant decline in the birth rate by about one-third, and has forced over 6 million Ukrainians to seek refuge in Europe, while nearly 4 million have been displaced within the country. The United Nations has estimated that Ukraine’s population has decreased by 10 million, or roughly 25%, since the onset of the invasion.

TERRITORY

Russia currently occupies and asserts that it has annexed approximately 20% of Ukraine, an area comparable in size to Greece.

In early 2022, Moscow’s forces advanced rapidly through northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine, reaching the outskirts of Kyiv in the north and crossing the Dnipro River in the south. Throughout the first year of the conflict, Ukraine’s military successfully pushed back against these advances; however, Russia has retained control over significant portions of southern and eastern Ukraine, in addition to territories it and its proxies had already taken in 2014. Moscow has now gained control over nearly the entirety of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and the complete coastline along the Sea of Azov in the south.

Numerous cities in the frontline areas captured by Russian forces have suffered extensive destruction, with Mariupol, a port city that had a population of around 500,000 before the war, being one of the most heavily impacted. Over the past year, Russia has gradually solidified its hold through intense combat, particularly in the Donbas. In response, Ukraine launched its first significant offensive into Russian territory in August, managing to capture a small portion of the Kursk region in western Russia.

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DEVASTATED ECONOMY

In 2022, Ukraine’s economy contracted by approximately one-third. Although there has been growth in 2023 and into the current year, it remains at only 78% of its pre-invasion size, as reported by First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko to Reuters.

The most recent evaluation from the World Bank, European Commission, United Nations, and the Ukrainian government indicates that direct damages from the war in Ukraine reached $152 billion by December 2023, with the housing, transport, commerce, industry, energy, and agriculture sectors being the most severely impacted.

The total estimated cost for reconstruction and recovery stands at $486 billion, according to the World Bank and the Ukrainian government, which is 2.8 times greater than Ukraine’s nominal gross domestic product for 2023, based on data from the economy ministry.

The power sector in Ukraine has faced significant challenges, as Russian forces frequently target infrastructure with long-range attacks.

As a major global grain supplier, Ukraine’s export disruptions at the onset of the war exacerbated a worldwide food crisis. However, exports have largely rebounded as Ukraine has developed strategies to navigate a de facto Russian blockade.

A substantial portion of state revenues is allocated to defense, with Ukraine depending on financial assistance from Western allies to cover pensions, public sector salaries, and other social expenditures. The daily cost of ongoing military operations is approximately $140 million, according to Roksolana Pidlasa, chair of the parliament’s budget committee.

The proposed budget for 2025 anticipates that around 26% of Ukraine’s GDP, equating to 2.2 trillion hryvnias ($53.3 billion), will be dedicated to defense. To date, Ukraine has received over $100 billion in financial aid from its Western partners.


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