On Friday afternoon, as a group of senior Canadian officials was preparing to engage with President Donald Trump‘s border czar in an effort to prevent severe new tariffs, Trump effectively communicated his disinterest from a distance: Don’t bother.
When a reporter inquired in the Oval Office whether Canada, Mexico, or China could take any actions to delay the new tariffs he had pledged to implement by February 1, he simply replied, “No. Not right now.”
Just twenty-four hours later, he followed through on his word.
From his Mar-a-Lago resort on Saturday, following a round of golf, Trump enacted new tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on China, thereby igniting the potential for a trade conflict with the United States’ primary trading partners. His order included a retaliation clause, which all but ensured that the tariff rates could escalate, as both Mexico and Canada have promised to respond.
After months of threats regarding significant tariffs on neighboring countries, Trump’s decision to impose these hefty new duties should not have come as a shock. Nevertheless, right up until the final moments before his deadline at the start of the month, many in Wall Street, Capitol Hill, and even in Ottawa and Mexico City remained hopeful that he might reconsider.
The delegation of senior Canadian officials had spent several days in Washington, engaging with various administration representatives, including border czar Tom Homan, in a bid to prevent the implementation of the 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods that Trump had announced for February 1.
Traveling throughout Washington with videos and documents illustrating a fortified US-Canada border, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly aimed to showcase the measures her nation has implemented to address President Trump’s requests for enhanced action against illegal immigration.
However, it has remained unclear what specific actions Canada and Mexico could undertake to circumvent the new tariffs, a point that was particularly perplexing for the negotiators from those countries, who spent much of January trying to determine what, if anything, could be done to meet Trump’s expectations.
When Trump enacted the tariffs on Saturday afternoon, a senior advisor indicated that only a total cessation of illegal immigration and a reduction in US fentanyl fatalities would meet Trump’s criteria.
“There will be a broad array of metrics. In Donald Trump’s ideal scenario, we will only have legal immigration, and there will be no American fatalities from fentanyl sourced from China, Mexico, or Canada,” the White House official stated.
Following a week that marked the first significant reversal of Trump’s second administration—specifically regarding a budget office directive to halt trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans, which was withdrawn amid widespread confusion—many of Trump’s allies were convinced he would implement his tariff commitment in some form.
“We’re not seeking a concession,” Trump remarked on Friday in the Oval Office. “We’ll just wait and see what unfolds.”
Trump’s assertion that he was not seeking concessions did not appear to be the definitive stance on the issue. When he initially cautioned in November about his intention to impose tariffs, he stated that they would “remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
Advancing a MAGA campaign promise
The actions taken on Saturday are poised to ignite a new trade conflict, one centered on matters that extend beyond traditional trade concerns. Trump seems determined to utilize tariffs as a tool to implement his domestic agenda, specifically targeting the reduction of undocumented immigration and drug trafficking into the United States.
Few within the White House anticipated that Trump would allow his February 1 deadline to pass without taking action.
Tariffs represent one of the few policies Trump has steadfastly endorsed for many years, serving as a consistent theme from his tenure as a New York developer to his time in public service (immigration being another). As a candidate, he pledged to leverage tariffs—describing them as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”—to enhance U.S. influence on the global stage.
Even before his official inauguration, Trump showed little sign of retreating from his threats. Business leaders attempting to dissuade him from his plans found little success, and Trump’s advisors candidly indicated that the president was unlikely to change his approach.
A 12-hour session over the weekend provided significant insights for the president and his administration. Following the imposition of severe tariffs on Colombia due to its president’s refusal to accept deportation flights on military aircraft, the country quickly retreated from its stance. This rapid concession highlighted the effectiveness of tariffs as a bargaining strategy, according to officials.
The tariffs enacted on Saturday signal the beginning of what could develop into a global trade conflict, potentially resulting in increased costs, disrupted supply chains, and job losses. The duties approved on that day include a 10% rate on Canadian energy, implicitly recognizing that these tariffs might lead to higher gasoline prices. Even the president acknowledged the possible negative impact on American consumers.
“There could be some temporary, short-term disruption, and people will understand that,” Trump stated on Friday when questioned by reporters about the tariffs’ impact on importers and, consequently, consumers. “But the tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong – and we’re going to treat other countries very fairly.”
The tariffs imposed on Saturday are unlikely to be the last. The president indicated in the Oval Office that further tariffs could be introduced by mid-February on imports such as chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, copper, oil, and gas, as well as on the European Union. These threats are taken seriously, given his track record of implementing tariffs on North America and China.
Disagreements on Tariff Strategy
Within the White House, significant advisers have pushed for a stringent tariff strategy, reflecting Trump’s commitment to one of his primary campaign promises: utilizing tariffs as a means to secure concessions, even from key U.S. allies.
Howard Lutnick, who is set to become Trump’s commerce secretary and previously led the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, has been a prominent proponent of a robust tariff strategy, as reported by sources familiar with the discussions. Stephen Miller, the influential deputy chief of staff with extensive policy responsibilities, has also been a strong advocate for a forceful initiation of Trump’s tariff agenda.
However, Lutnick acknowledged during his Senate confirmation hearings that there are potential pathways for Canada and Mexico to evade the severe tariffs Trump has proposed.
“If we are your largest trading partner, show us the respect. Close your border and stop the flow of fentanyl into this country. This is not merely about tariffs; it is a matter of domestic policy,” Lutnick stated.
“If they take action, there will be no need for tariffs,” he added.
Some of Trump’s economic advisers did not share the same aggressive stance. Officials focused on market dynamics, such as Scott Bessent, who served as Trump’s Treasury Secretary, supported a more moderate strategy. Bessent proposed initiating tariffs at 2.5% and increasing them incrementally, as reported by the Financial Times. However, Trump swiftly dismissed this suggestion.
“That would not be acceptable to me,” Trump stated to the press, emphasizing that he preferred a significantly larger approach.
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