European allies dedicated the weekend to reaffirming their commitment to the lessons learned from the first Trump administration, aiming to prepare for a potential second term. However, there was uncertainty about whether they truly believed in their own reassurances.

“I don’t foresee the U.S. distancing itself from Europe in the upcoming years,” stated Gen. Onno Eichelsheim, the chief general of The Netherlands. “While that seems unlikely, it is possible that European nations will take on greater responsibilities. I see no reason why they shouldn’t.”

This sentiment was echoed, albeit cautiously, during panel discussions, informal conversations, and interviews throughout the Halifax International Security Forum—a three-day event featuring officials from NATO and its Indo-Pacific allies. Nevertheless, few attendees could clearly define their expectations for the future.

“I’m uncertain about the strategy regarding Ukraine and Russia,” admitted Adm. Rob Bauer, NATO’s leading military official. “Honestly, I don’t have the answers, so we must wait.”

A bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers arrived to reassure anxious allies, but the lack of clarity regarding the new administration’s plans for ongoing support for Ukraine, coupled with anticipated demands for increased defense spending in Europe, presented significant challenges.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-ND) expressed that he came to Halifax with a message emphasizing the continued existence of three branches of the U.S. government, asserting that the Senate will maintain its independence from the White House, even as the Republican-controlled Congress is likely to support most initiatives from the new administration.

Rounds mentioned that he spent the weekend working to “reset the narrative, reassuring everyone that all will be well, that we are progressing, and that there is a sense of continuity within the Senate, which we believe will extend to the House as we…prepare for the return of former President Trump as the president-elect.”

European representatives at the conference highlighted the measures they have implemented over the past few years that are likely to resonate positively with the president-elect.

“This is not 2016; we are significantly better prepared than we were then,” stated Tobias Lindner, Germany’s coordinator for transatlantic relations. “And this is not 2016 when considering my own country as well. Our defense spending has now surpassed 2 percent, we have reduced our reliance on Russian fossil fuels — Nord Stream is a thing of the past — and we have adopted a firmer approach towards China, particularly concerning our 5G infrastructure.”

However, these were the expectations set by Trump during his 2016 campaign. The new president may have different or more stringent requirements in 2025. Discussions are already underway regarding a potential new benchmark for NATO spending at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague next July, where the aim may be for member states to allocate 3 or even 5 percent of their GDP towards defense.

Many participants at Halifax argued that while the first term of Trump was marked by unpredictability and rhetoric regarding NATO spending, the U.S. actually bolstered its troop presence in Eastern Europe near the Russian border, prompting alliance members to recognize the necessity of reinvesting in their declining military capabilities.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations advocated for NATO’s modernization, albeit with contrasting approaches. “It doesn’t matter whether it was Trump or Kamala Harris; they would have urged Europe to take responsibility,” Eichelsheim remarked.

A NATO official, who requested anonymity to discuss the forthcoming administration in Washington, emphasized the desire to engage with the Trump administration in a constructive way, rather than opposing everything or merely defending their own stance.

Many in Eastern Europe expressed support for Trump’s call for increased defense spending among NATO countries. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur remarked in an interview at the conference, “I believe that Trump is not destabilizing; he’s encouraging allies to take greater responsibility.” He emphasized that to effectively deter Russia, it is crucial to demonstrate military readiness, stating, “The clear message to Russia is that our warehouses are full and our inventory is sufficient to defend our nations.”

However, some attendees described the atmosphere of the event as reminiscent of a “therapy session,” according to POLITICO.

NATO’s Bauer cautioned that the “strategic dilemmas” facing the U.S. and its allies in 2025 differ significantly from those of eight years prior, leaving uncertainty about how Trump might respond to global crises such as the situation in Ukraine.

The conflict has escalated with North Korean troops joining the fight alongside Russia, and a continuous barrage of missiles and drones from Iran and North Korea targeting Ukrainian cities, making it a concern for both Europe and allied nations in the Indo-Pacific.

This global dimension of the conflict was highlighted by Indo-Pacific commander Adm. Samuel Paparo, who warned that with approximately 12,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, he anticipates Moscow will reciprocate by supplying missile and submarine technology to Pyongyang. Reports also surfaced on Sunday regarding Russia’s recruitment of mercenaries from Yemen, associated with the Iran-backed Houthi militant group, to participate in the conflict in Ukraine.

Despite these challenges, Pevkur chose to remain optimistic.

“At the end of the day, I genuinely believe that President Trump aims to align with the victors, and I firmly believe that the United States as a nation aspires to remain a bastion of democracy,” he stated. “It is essential to be transparent about what is at stake. What would the situation look like if Russia were to succeed? This is the only path to resolving the war in Ukraine.”

Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), recently elected to the U.S. Senate from New Jersey for the upcoming Congress, noted that there is considerable anxiety surrounding the current unpredictability. He emphasized that this concern extends beyond Trump, highlighting the uncertainty related to Ukraine, the Middle East, and various other global issues.