US is considering a Korean-style armistice for Ukraine

US officials have privately indicated that Russia is likely to retain approximately 20% of the territory currently claimed by Ukraine in any potential peace agreement, as reported by the New York Times on Saturday. This perspective is shared by both the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden and the team of President-elect Donald Trump.

The potential ceasefire could mirror the armistice established at the conclusion of the Korean War in 1953, which effectively halted hostilities without resulting in a formal peace treaty, according to the NYT. Additionally, any agreement would need to incorporate some form of security assurances.

The proposal being evaluated reportedly includes a ceasefire overseen by European peacekeeping forces, with British, German, and French troops expected to take a leading role.

However, two senior officials from the Biden administration expressed to the outlet that a critical factor will be whether the Trump administration continues to supply intelligence and military support to Ukraine while permitting Kiev to conduct operations within Russia.

This report follows comments from Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, who earlier this month acknowledged that the conflict should be resolved through diplomatic means, stating it is unrealistic to expect the complete expulsion of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. He noted that Trump has recognized this reality, calling it a significant advancement in global acknowledgment of the situation.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed his approval of the change in tone from the incoming U.S. administration. “We appreciate that the new administration has begun to acknowledge the realities on the ground more frequently,” he stated last week.

Lavrov’s remarks resonate with those made by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in December, who acknowledged that Ukraine lacks the military capability to reclaim all the territories it claims. Nevertheless, he dismissed the possibility of any formal territorial concessions, emphasizing that Kyiv must pursue diplomatic solutions to achieve its objectives.

Zelensky has also maintained that Ukraine should ultimately seek NATO membership to guarantee its security, a position that is unacceptable to Russia, which perceives the eastward expansion of the U.S.-led alliance as a significant threat to its national security.

Moscow has firmly rejected any notion of freezing the conflict, asserting that all objectives of its military campaign in Ukraine—including the country’s neutrality, demilitarization, and denazification—must be realized. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has reiterated that Russia will not relinquish any of the territories it has recently claimed, specifically referring to the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.