The United States is poised to provide India with its premier fighter jet, the F-35 Lightning II. This commitment was articulated by U.S. President Donald Trump during a joint press conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Beginning this year, we will significantly increase military sales to India by several billion dollars. We are also laying the groundwork for the eventual delivery of F-35 stealth fighters to India,” Trump stated at the White House alongside Modi.

The indication that the U.S. is ready to sell F-35 stealth fighter jets to India represents a notable shift in the geopolitical and military landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. If this agreement is finalized, it would enhance India’s aerial capabilities and alter the strategic dynamics among key regional players, including China and Pakistan.

This initiative is part of a broader effort to strengthen U.S.-India defense relations, which have intensified over the last decade as both nations aim to counterbalance China’s expanding influence in Asia.

Central to this development is the increasing convergence of U.S. and Indian strategic interests. Over the years, the United States has progressively eased restrictions on advanced military technology transfers to India, recognizing it as a Major Defense Partner.

The potential sale of F-35s—among the most sophisticated fighter jets globally—marks a significant milestone in this policy evolution. Traditionally, the U.S. has reserved F-35s for its closest allies, including NATO members, Israel, and Japan. Extending this offer to India underscores Washington’s strategic intent to enhance India’s military strength.

The F-35 Lightning II, created by Lockheed Martin, is a fifth-generation stealth fighter engineered to avoid radar detection, perform electronic warfare, and integrate effectively with networked battle management systems.

Should India proceed with the acquisition of the F-35, it would represent a significant advancement for the Indian Air Force (IAF), greatly improving its air superiority and reconnaissance capabilities. Currently, India operates a diverse fleet of aircraft from Russian, French, and domestic sources, including the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas. While these aircraft are impressive, they lack the stealth features and sophisticated sensor fusion technology found in the F-35.

This potential acquisition, however, brings forth several important considerations. Firstly, how would India incorporate the F-35 into an air force predominantly composed of Russian-made aircraft? The existing infrastructure of the IAF is designed to support Sukhoi and MiG fighters, necessitating substantial logistical and maintenance changes.

Additionally, India’s ongoing acquisition of Rafale jets from France and the development of indigenous fighter programs such as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) add complexity to the decision-making process. Would New Delhi be prepared to revise its air combat strategy to integrate a completely new aircraft framework?

Cost is another significant factor. The F-35 is among the most expensive fighter jets ever produced, with unit prices ranging from $80 million to over $100 million, depending on the variant and additional systems.

The overall cost of ownership, which encompasses maintenance, pilot training, and spare parts, can be exceedingly high. Considering India’s budget limitations and its competing defense priorities—such as the modernization of its navy and ground forces—would it be financially viable to pursue an F-35 fleet?

The geopolitical ramifications of this potential deal are equally significant. India has historically adhered to a policy of strategic autonomy, carefully managing its relationships with the U.S., Russia, and other influential nations. For decades, Russia has been India’s main arms supplier, and any move to acquire F-35s could jeopardize New Delhi’s rapport with Moscow.

Currently, Russia is providing India with the S-400 air defense system, a decision that has previously raised alarms in Washington and even prompted threats of sanctions under the CAATSA [Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act]. Should India proceed with the F-35 acquisition, it might need to reassess its dependence on Russian defense technology to mitigate the risk of U.S. sanctions or interoperability issues.

China and Pakistan are likely to monitor this situation closely. Beijing, which has been actively enhancing its air force capabilities with the J-20 stealth fighter, would perceive India’s potential F-35 acquisition as a direct challenge to its regional air superiority.

Pakistan, India’s longstanding adversary, heavily relies on both Chinese and American aircraft, including F-16s. If India successfully acquires the F-35, Pakistan may respond by seeking to bolster its capabilities with additional Chinese J-31 stealth fighters or by strengthening its military collaboration with Beijing.

This agreement extends beyond immediate military interests, highlighting the broader strategic partnership between the U.S. and India, especially in the context of countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, has played a crucial role in countering Beijing’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and along the India-China border.

By providing India with F-35s, the U.S. aims to fulfill its long-term objective of equipping regional allies with advanced military technology to ensure stability in the area.

The potential sale of F-35 stealth fighters to India may signify more than just an enhancement of the Indian Air Force; it could also represent a strategic initiative to diminish India’s historical defense connections with Russia.

For many years, India has depended on Russian military equipment, with collaborative projects like the BrahMos missile program and past partnerships on fighter jets reinforcing a strong defense alliance. However, the potential acquisition of F-35s indicates a shift in focus that could notably alter Russia’s status as India’s main arms supplier.

A significant concern for Washington is the possibility of India obtaining Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter. Although still in limited production, the Su-57 is Russia’s response to the F-35 and F-22, featuring advanced stealth capabilities, supercruise technology, and a formidable arsenal.

India’s previous withdrawal from the joint FGFA (Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft) initiative with Russia has not diminished its interest in the Su-57, especially as the country aims to enhance its air force capabilities. Should India decide to acquire the Su-57, it would not only strengthen its defense relationship with Russia but also create interoperability issues with Western aircraft.

In offering the F-35 to India, the United States may be seeking to preempt any potential Su-57 acquisition and further distance India from Russian defense technologies. This strategy is consistent with Washington’s broader objective of reducing Russian influence in the global arms market, particularly as Moscow grapples with economic challenges stemming from sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

By decreasing India’s reliance on Russian military equipment, the U.S. could also diminish Russia’s leverage over New Delhi in geopolitical contexts, particularly as India navigates its relationships with Western nations and the Russia-China partnership.

While the prospect of F-35 sales to India represents a significant development, the path to finalizing such a deal is fraught with complexities. Various challenges, including logistical issues, budget limitations, and geopolitical consequences, must be resolved before any sale can be realized.

If India moves forward with this purchase, it would signify a pivotal change in its military strategy and alliances, reinforcing its status as a leading global military power and strengthening its partnership with the United States amid a rapidly changing global landscape.