U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his desire to incorporate Greenland into the United States, suggesting that he may consider military or economic measures to persuade Denmark to relinquish control of the mineral-rich and strategically significant island. In a post on Truth Social, Trump remarked, “Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation.” He further emphasized the importance of this acquisition, stating, “This is a deal that must happen,” coinciding with a private visit to Greenland by his son, Donald Trump Jr.

WHY DOES TRUMP WANT GREENLAND?

Trump’s interest in acquiring the largely ice-covered territory, which is home to approximately 57,000 residents, first emerged in 2019 but was met with rejection from Denmark.

The rationale behind Trump’s interest in Greenland lies in its strategic importance. As a member of NATO through Denmark, Greenland plays a crucial role in the U.S. military’s operations, particularly for its ballistic missile early-warning system, given that the most direct route from Europe to North America traverses the Arctic island.

The U.S. military currently maintains a permanent base at Pituffik in northwest Greenland and has shown interest in enhancing its military footprint there, including the installation of radar systems to monitor maritime activities between Greenland, Iceland, and Britain—key transit routes for Russian naval forces and nuclear submarines. According to Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, it is essential for the United States to prevent other major powers from establishing a presence on the island, which is geographically part of North America.

The island of Greenland, with its capital Nuuk located closer to New York than to Copenhagen, is rich in mineral, oil, and natural gas resources; however, progress in development has been sluggish. A survey conducted in 2023 revealed that 25 out of 34 minerals classified as “critical raw materials” by the European Commission are present in Greenland. These include substantial amounts of battery materials like graphite and lithium, as well as rare earth elements essential for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

Due to environmental concerns, Greenland has prohibited the extraction of oil and natural gas, and the advancement of its mining industry has been hindered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition from indigenous communities. As a result, the economy remains heavily dependent on fishing, which constitutes over 95% of exports, alongside annual subsidies from Denmark that account for approximately half of the public budget. Denmark allocates nearly $1 billion each year to support Greenland.

WHO OWNS GREENLAND AND COULD TRUMP BUY IT?

Greenland has been under Danish rule for over 600 years but now exercises significant control over its domestic affairs as a semi-autonomous territory within the Danish realm. It was officially designated as a territory of Denmark in 1953 and is governed by the Danish constitution, meaning any alteration to its legal status would necessitate a constitutional amendment. In 2009, the island was granted extensive self-governing powers, including the ability to pursue independence from Denmark through a referendum.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede has intensified efforts toward independence, consistently asserting that the island is not for sale and that its future should be determined by its inhabitants. On Wednesday, Egede engaged in discussions in Copenhagen with King Frederik, likely influenced by recent comments from former President Trump. In 2019, both Greenland and Denmark turned down Trump’s proposal to purchase the island. Historically, during the Cold War, the U.S. under President Harry Truman attempted to acquire Greenland for $100 million in gold, but Copenhagen refused the offer.

WHAT IF GREENLAND ACHIEVES INDEPENDENCE?

Should Greenland attain independence, it might consider establishing a relationship with the United States. While a significant portion of the Greenlandic population desires independence, many believe that complete autonomy is impractical due to their economic reliance on Denmark, a member of the prosperous European Union. One potential pathway could involve creating a “free association” agreement with the United States, akin to the arrangements of Pacific island nations such as the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher and Greenland expert, noted, “Greenland is pursuing independence from Denmark, but no Greenlanders wish to simply exchange one colonial ruler for another.”

It is improbable that Greenland will pursue independence without first securing the well-being of its citizens.

WHAT DOES GREENLAND WANT?

While a majority of Greenland’s population favors independence, opinions are split regarding the appropriate timing and the potential effects on living conditions. Since 2019, Greenlandic politicians have expressed a desire to enhance cooperation and trade with the United States. However, Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic representative in the Danish parliament, firmly opposed the notion of a U.S. acquisition, stating, “I don’t want to be a pawn in Trump’s hot dreams of expanding his empire to include our country.”

WHAT DOES DENMARK SAY?

This renewed interest arises amidst increasing tensions between Greenland and Denmark, following disclosures of past injustices by the former colonial power. Denmark, a close NATO ally of the United States, categorically rejected Trump’s 2019 proposal to purchase the island, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen calling it “absurd.”

In response to Trump’s renewed interest on Tuesday, Frederiksen remarked, “We need very close cooperation with the Americans.” She further emphasized, “At the same time, I urge everyone to acknowledge that the Greenlanders are a distinct people; it is their country, and only they can determine and shape Greenland’s future.”