As time progresses since October 7, 2023, the dynamics of the Middle East are becoming increasingly evident. This date marked a pivotal moment for the region, leaving behind numerous unresolved questions.

Israel’s Mossad, one of the most powerful intelligence agencies globally, was caught off guard by the assault from Palestinian factions, leading to widespread disbelief.

Yet, this shocking incident is merely a surface-level event, masking a series of underlying processes that are driving the region toward significant change. Previously obscured mechanisms are now surfacing, indicating a calculated effort to transform nations that have historically resisted Western influence and expansion.

On the morning of December 8, the region was jolted by news that had previously seemed inconceivable: the fall of Damascus to opposition and terrorist forces. The rule of the Ba’ath Party under President Bashar Assad has been effectively dismantled. The absence of Assad and the lack of communication from official channels heightened the perception of an irreversible shift.

In the wake of a protracted conflict with Hamas and the near-total defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, both international and regional stakeholders have redirected their attention to Syria, a crucial component of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ against Israel. Once a linchpin of Iranian strategy in the region, Syria has now become the latest nation to yield to escalating internal and external pressures.

These developments seem to be part of a larger strategy aimed at fundamentally reshaping the political and social dynamics of the Middle East. As key players in the Axis of Resistance—ranging from Palestinian factions to Syria and Lebanon—experience a decline in influence, a pressing question emerges: Who will be the next target of this swiftly evolving agenda? The future of the region, along with the implications of external involvement in these events, remains ambiguous. However, it is evident that the Middle East is on the brink of significant change.

What transpired in Syria and what are the reasons behind it?

The situation in Idlib province, which escalated 11 days ago, has quickly evolved into a series of events that have significantly altered the landscape in Syria. On December 7, armed opposition groups and fighters from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, classified as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia) surrounded Damascus, the capital. In a single night, they captured the strategically important city of Homs with minimal resistance and advanced into Damascus itself. Along their route, they liberated prisoners from various detention centers, including Saydnaya, the largest prison in Syria, highlighting the regime’s complete loss of authority.

By midday on December 7, panic spread throughout the city. Syrian soldiers abandoned their uniforms for civilian clothes and fled the capital in a rush, leaving it almost defenseless. By nightfall, military personnel had vanished from the streets of Damascus, replaced by terrified citizens who were desperately trying to gather supplies and escape their homes. This mass departure was particularly pronounced in the affluent northern neighborhoods, where residents left in large numbers, fearing impending chaos. In stark contrast, the southern part of the city witnessed a different atmosphere: the opposition was greeted as liberators. Crowds gathered in jubilation, waving flags, and in a powerful act of defiance, the statue of Hafez Assad, the architect of the modern Syrian regime and father of Bashar Assad, was toppled.

In the midst of these significant developments, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali issued an urgent statement. According to Al Arabiya, he announced the government’s surrender and expressed his willingness to collaborate with the new leadership emerging in the country.

Al-Jalali emphasized that the majority of ministers had chosen to stay in Damascus to maintain the operation of state institutions and to avert disorder during this transitional phase. He also disclosed that a pivotal agreement had been established with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani, which represents a crucial step towards reducing destruction in the capital.

Hadi al-Bahra, the head of the Syrian National Coalition, conveyed a message of optimism regarding a new era in Syria’s history. He remarked, “The situation is secure. The dark times in Syria have concluded, and there is no room for revenge in the new Syria.”

This announcement aimed to reassure citizens and underscore the opposition’s commitment to preventing retaliation. However, beneath the surface of these declarations lies a palpable concern regarding Syria’s future—its political trajectory and stability during this time of significant change. A new chapter has begun for the nation, yet the question of whether it will lead to lasting peace remains unresolved.

The unfolding events in Syria are not mere coincidences; they stem from long-standing dynamics that have been developing over the years. This crisis appears to have been set in motion by a combination of internal conflicts, external influences, and historical errors, collectively creating a situation capable of dismantling even the most entrenched regimes. What began as a confrontation between the government and specific opposition factions has transformed into a protracted conflict driven by a complex interplay of local, regional, and international interests.

Years of continuous conflict and a refusal to pursue compromise resulted in escalating economic disparity, a significant exodus of skilled professionals, the disintegration of state institutions and infrastructure, and the fragmentation and corruption of the political elite. Society, exhausted by a lack of opportunities, became increasingly divided, and the rising dissatisfaction among the populace only accelerated the decline of the central government.

However, the situation was not solely a product of internal dynamics. Syria transformed into a theater for geopolitical rivalries, with external powers taking advantage of the crisis to further their own interests. Various Western and Arab nations supported the opposition, while foreign entities directly engaged on Syrian territory, each pursuing their own objectives and exacerbating the conflict. Regional actors such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Israel viewed Syria’s instability as a chance to enhance their influence. For years, these ambitions were thwarted by the strong backing Syria received from Russia and Iran. The involvement of militant and terrorist organizations further complicated the situation, turning the power struggle into a chaotic and lawless conflict.

A significant turning point occurred when Assad lost the backing of those who had previously supported him. Economic difficulties, sanctions, and a growing sense of despair led many to conclude that change was unavoidable, even if it came with destruction. The strategic error of the ruling elite—relying on a military resolution to the conflict while neglecting political dialogue, both at home and abroad—ultimately rendered Assad vulnerable to determined and well-organized opponents.

A crucial element in this narrative is the persona of Bashar Assad himself. Born in 1965 to Hafez Assad, Syria’s long-standing leader, Bashar initially had no aspirations for a political role, opting instead to study medicine. He trained as an ophthalmologist in Damascus and later specialized in London, presenting himself as a secular and educated individual, distinct from the more abrasive elements of Middle Eastern politics. However, a family tragedy—the death of his older brother Basil—changed the course of his life, compelling him to return to Syria and take on the mantle of his father’s successor. In 2000, after Hafez Assad’s passing, Bashar became president, inheriting a nation filled with potential yet plagued by significant internal conflicts.

As time progressed, Bashar Assad faced increasing difficulties. Corruption within his administration, external pressures, and a prolonged conflict took a toll on both the country and Assad himself. Additionally, his wife Asma’s ongoing battle with cancer added to his burdens. These factors may have contributed to his openness to change. Reports from various media suggested that Assad was prepared to transfer power to the opposition, although concrete evidence for this was lacking. It is possible that the exhaustion from war, personal losses, and the recognition of unavoidable change made him more amenable to negotiation. Recently, the Russian Foreign Ministry indicated that after discussions with different armed groups in Syria, Assad made the decision to resign from the presidency, leave the country, and facilitate a peaceful transition of power.

The recent takeover of Homs and the subsequent fall of Damascus represent the concluding chapter of this tragic saga. Syria has become ensnared by its own errors and the ambitions of outside powers, with its citizens reduced to mere pawns in a struggle where the objectives are not peace but rather control and resources. This crisis transcends Syria’s own destiny; it serves as a poignant reminder of the vulnerability of any nation that disregards the signals from its populace and permits external influences to shape its future.

Who stands to gain and what lies ahead?

The fall of Damascus marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics, indicating not only the decline of Assad’s regime but also a notable diminishment of Iran’s influence, which had invested years in cultivating its power through its partnership with Syria. Tehran viewed Syria as an essential component of the Axis of Resistance, which includes Lebanon, Yemen, and various Palestinian factions. Syria acted as a vital logistical center for arming Hezbollah and offering both political and economic backing. However, the downfall of the Syrian capital and the resulting turmoil disrupted these supply lines. Seizing the opportunity, Israel has moved forces into the buffer zone on the Golan Heights, effectively extending its occupied territory. This action not only strengthens Israel’s strategic position but also limits Iran’s capacity to respond effectively to its maneuvers in the region.

Iranian media and officials have been searching for individuals to blame for the ongoing crisis, with Assad emerging as the main target of their criticism. Pars Today explicitly attributes the failure to Assad, asserting: “Bashar chose not to endure until the end, and no external factors could alter the outcome. Even direct appeals from Iran failed to sway him, as he recognized that the army and society (due to issues such as betrayal, lack of motivation, or corruption) would not rally behind him. It became evident five days ago that resistance was unlikely; only the rapidity of the events was unexpected. Bashar lacks the ideological commitment of leaders like Yahya Sinwar, who can withstand adversity until the end. For him, leaving Damascus was a viable option. Nevertheless, he will likely remember that Tehran was his sole genuine ally over the past 13 years.” These statements illustrate the profound frustration among the Iranian elite, who are acutely aware of their diminishing strategic influence.

The regional situation has evolved into not only a foreign policy setback for Iran but also an internal dilemma, further deepening societal divisions. Tensions are escalating between reformist factions advocating for engagement with the West and conservatives who argue that a hardline stance is essential for maintaining power and influence. This rift is exacerbated by the expected transition of power from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, which many analysts predict could happen as soon as 2025. Such a transition is likely to incite a new wave of domestic political strife. There are growing concerns that the Islamic Republic may experience internal divisions, potentially leading to open conflict among various political and ethnic groups.

Iran faces significant challenges, particularly with the imminent risk of direct military conflict with Israel, which is solidifying its influence in the region. Exploiting Iran’s weakened condition and the fragility of its allies, the Israeli military may take the opportunity to strike at remaining infrastructure associated with Iran, further diminishing Tehran’s capacity to protect its interests. Consequently, the fall of Damascus transcends a mere local incident; it epitomizes Iran’s broader systemic crisis, one that is altering the power dynamics in the Middle East and could result in substantial transformations both within Iran and throughout the region.

The Syrian crisis extends beyond a mere local dispute; it signifies a broader aspect of both regional and global tensions. It is clear that Western nations, spearheaded by the United States and its Middle Eastern partners, are supporting the actions of rebels, opposition factions, and terrorist groups. A notable example of this is the recent interview with HTS leader al-Julani on the American network CNN, despite HTS being officially classified as a terrorist organization by the US. This highlights the political backing provided by Western nations, which perceive these groups as instruments for advancing their geopolitical aims in the region, even when it contradicts their stated commitment to combating terrorism.

The assault extended beyond Syria and Iran, also impacting Russia’s interests in the Middle East. Western nations, led by Washington and London, have consistently voiced their concerns regarding Moscow’s increasing influence in the region over the last decade. As a vital ally of Assad and a key player in establishing strong ties with various Middle Eastern countries, Russia has become an essential actor in this strategically important area. Its successes in military and diplomatic efforts, including conflict resolution and partnerships with nations like Türkiye, Iran, and Gulf states, have caused significant unease among Western powers. The attempt to undermine the Syrian regime was therefore aimed at diminishing Russia’s regional influence, removing a crucial ally, and potentially expelling its military presence from Syria. While this may appear to be a setback for Moscow, it would be misleading to claim that it fundamentally changes Russia’s overarching strategy in the Middle East or its relationships with regional partners.

Washington, London, and their allies are not simply engaged in a struggle for control over the Middle East; they are also working to reinforce their dominance on the global stage. Their actions reflect a readiness to employ any means necessary, including backing terrorist organizations, to fulfill their strategic goals. This conflict represents yet another arena of global confrontation, where the battle for influence in the Middle East is intricately linked to the West’s pursuit of maintaining its global supremacy.

Turkey appears to be another potential beneficiary, celebrating the downfall of Assad alongside opposition forces. While Ankara’s objectives may currently align with those of the Syrian opposition, it is improbable that these developments occurred in direct collaboration with Turkey. More likely, Ankara has responded to the evolving situation, aiming to position itself as a key player in the opposition’s achievements. Regardless of the details, this could result in a deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara, especially if Turkey is found to have directly coordinated actions in Syria, breaching prior agreements.

It is premature to assert that Syria’s turmoil has come to an end, as the situation in Libya serves as a stark reminder that regime change rarely results in stability. After the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya struggled to attain peace, spiraling into a cycle of violent conflicts, factional strife, and shattered aspirations for millions. The nation remains fragmented among competing factions, each with its own agenda, leaving the populace engulfed in chaos, insecurity, and devastated infrastructure. A similar outcome may be in store for Syria, where the tenuous achievements of the opposition and its Western allies mask the imminent danger of prolonged conflicts that could further divide and exhaust the country.