The recent meeting in Dubai between Foreign Secretary of India Vikram Misri and Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of the Taliban, has underscored India’s commitment to enhancing its influence with Afghan leadership, according to analysts.
Over the past year, India has been steadily improving its relations with the Taliban, and this meeting represents the first significant high-level interaction of its nature.
India has contributed over $3 billion in aid and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan over the last two decades. A statement from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs highlighted key discussion points, including regional developments, trade, humanitarian cooperation, and a commitment to resume developmental projects while supporting the health sector and refugees in Afghanistan.
However, the implications of the meeting extend beyond the official statements, particularly given the timing and agenda, indicating a shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Notably, this meeting occurred shortly after India condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghanistan, which have reportedly resulted in the deaths of at least 46 individuals in the past month.
The recent appointment of an acting consul by the Taliban at the Afghan consulate in Mumbai last November has drawn attention.
Although the Indian government has not publicly addressed this appointment, it coincided with a visit from India’s joint secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs to Kabul during the same month.
The Taliban’s selection of Ikramuddin Kamil, a former Afghan student in India who has become a Taliban diplomat, adds India to a list of nations, including Russia, China, Turkiye, Iran, and Uzbekistan, that have permitted the Taliban to manage their diplomatic missions. Additionally, in 2022, India dispatched a small technical team to partially resume operations at its embassy in Kabul.
Is this a strategic shift?
Analysts suggest that these developments indicate a strengthening of relations between New Delhi and Kabul.
However, Kabir Taneja, deputy director and fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank, argues that this may not represent a significant strategic change. He stated, “It is merely a natural evolution of India’s cautious and prolonged approach to the Taliban’s presence in Kabul since 2021. Like other neighboring countries, India recognizes the Taliban as a reality, and it cannot afford to overlook Afghanistan and its people.”
Raghav Sharma, an associate professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs in New Delhi, concurred with this perspective. He stated, “This appears to be a continuation of the previous policy where we engage with the Taliban without fully acknowledging the extent of our involvement.” He pointed out that meaningful policy outcomes have rarely resulted from such discussions.
Regarding diplomatic relations with the Taliban, he remarked, “We have largely remained on the sidelines,” referencing a study by the Washington Institute, a U.S. think tank that examined global interactions with the Taliban. The research indicated that countries like Qatar, China, and Turkiye are at the forefront of establishing ties with the Taliban, with Pakistan ranking fifth in terms of influence.
“India does not even appear on that list,” Sharma noted.
“For a long time, India has maintained that Afghanistan holds strategic significance and that we share historical connections, but we must translate that into action,” he continued. “Following the collapse of the republic government, we effectively sidelined Afghanistan, only addressing it sporadically as needed.”
Lingering Indian Hesitance
Taneja suggested that one potential positive outcome from this situation could be the resumption of visa issuance for Afghans. “The key takeaway from the Misri-Muttaqi discussions is that India may be nearing the restart of a series of visas for Afghans, particularly in the areas of trade, health tourism, and education,” he explained.
India faced criticism for halting Afghan visas, including those for medical and educational purposes, after the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. Since then, very few visas have been granted to Afghans. “It is crucial for New Delhi to reconsider this stance,” Taneja emphasized. “Doing so would provide much-needed relief to many Afghan citizens who have historically viewed India as their preferred destination for higher education and medical care.”
Raghav Sharma, an associate professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs in New Delhi, concurred with this perspective. He stated, “This appears to be a continuation of the previous policy where we engage with the Taliban without fully acknowledging the extent of our involvement.” He pointed out that meaningful policy outcomes have rarely resulted from such discussions.
Sharma emphasized that India has largely remained on the sidelines regarding diplomatic relations with the Taliban, referencing a study by the Washington Institute, a U.S. think tank, which assessed international interactions with the Taliban. The findings indicated that countries like Qatar, China, and Turkiye are at the forefront of establishing ties with the Taliban, with Pakistan ranking fifth in terms of influence.
“India does not even appear on that list,” Sharma remarked.
“For a considerable time, India has maintained that Afghanistan holds strategic significance and that we share historical connections, yet we must translate that into action,” he continued. “Following the collapse of the republic government, we effectively sidelined Afghanistan, only addressing it sporadically as needed.”
Lingering Reluctance from India
Taneja noted a potential positive development from this situation, suggesting that India might be on the verge of resuming visa issuance for Afghans. “The key takeaway from the Misri-Muttaqi discussions is that India may be nearing the restart of a series of visas for Afghans, particularly in sectors like trade, health tourism, and education,” he explained.
India faced criticism for halting Afghan visas, including those for medical and educational purposes, after the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. Since then, very few visas have been granted to Afghans. “It is crucial for New Delhi to reconsider this stance,” Taneja asserted. “Doing so would provide much-needed relief to many Afghan citizens who have historically viewed India as a preferred destination for higher education and medical care.”
India has established a significant presence in Afghanistan and was among the first nations to dispatch a diplomatic mission following the Taliban’s fall in 2001. Nevertheless, despite its considerable interests in the region, India has struggled to formulate a cohesive policy regarding the country.
Sharma noted that any strategic moves India has made have typically been in coordination with other nations that share similar interests, primarily Iran and Russia in the past, and more recently, the United States. With the downfall of the US-supported republic government, India found itself facing a new set of challenges.
As many countries swiftly adapted to the changing circumstances, India effectively placed Afghanistan in a state of “cold storage,” Sharma emphasized. He pointed out that even the US has engaged with the Taliban on counterterrorism efforts to address the threat posed by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), a regional affiliate of ISIL (ISIS) known to operate in Afghanistan.
Simultaneously, Sharma remarked that nations such as Iran, which have supported the Taliban, as well as Pakistan, have maintained open lines of communication with opposition groups. He highlighted that Iran is hosting opposition figures like Ismael Khan, and although the Tajik government was initially critical of the Taliban, it has since softened its stance while still providing a platform for the opposition.
Concentrating all our resources on the Taliban
Currently, regional stakeholders are evaluating the potential implications of the incoming Trump administration in the United States for the Taliban.
“Taneja noted that Afghanistan has faded from the political spotlight in Washington, DC. While it remains significant from a security perspective, it will not take precedence over more pressing issues like Gaza, Iran, and Ukraine.”
The future remains uncertain, he continued. “Trump’s strategies resemble daily weather predictions. However, any Taliban factions seeking to strengthen their position may find a more receptive audience under Trump than they did under Biden.”
In the end, despite being the dominant power in the region, India has struggled to engage with various factions in Afghanistan, which may jeopardize its long-term interests. “Initially, we erred by concentrating all our efforts on the [Hamid] Karzai [former Afghan president] and later the [Ashraf] Ghani administrations. We made a similar mistake in Bangladesh by fully supporting Sheikh Hasina.”
Addressing this issue may require time, as India might also lack a fundamental understanding of Afghan society, Sharma remarked.
“It’s not solely about building political relationships; it’s also about comprehending how specific sociopolitical structures function. I don’t believe India possesses that understanding, which is ironic given our geographical and cultural proximity. Yet, we have invested very little in understanding the society,” he stated.
“I fear we are repeating that same error by concentrating all our resources on the Taliban,” Taneja cautioned, emphasizing that Afghanistan’s political landscape has always been highly unstable.
“The ground shifts very quickly,” he added.
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