US intelligence agencies were actively working on Thursday morning to revise their evaluations regarding the potential successor to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who may have been killed in an Israeli operation overnight.

US officials have long anticipated that eliminating Sinwar could provide Israel with the political leverage necessary to pursue a ceasefire. However, the identity of his successor could significantly influence Hamas’s willingness to engage in substantial negotiations with Israel aimed at halting the conflict and securing the release of hostages.

Current and former US officials have identified several potential candidates to succeed the elusive Sinwar, who has been the dominant figure within the organization for over a year.

If Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya’s brother, takes over, one US official remarked, “negotiations are totally screwed.” According to a former official, Mohammed shares his brother’s hardline stance and has been known to prioritize his vision over the welfare of Palestinian civilians. He has also been responsible for overseeing Hamas’s tunnel construction efforts.

However, given the exhaustion within the group, there may be a preference for an outsider who could be more amenable to negotiations, as noted by one source. In July, CNN reported that Sinwar faced pressure from his own commanders to cease the ongoing violence.

Another potential successor is Khalil Al Hayya, who has played a key role as a negotiator for Hamas during ceasefire discussions in Doha. Due to his experience, he is “probably who the US would want,” according to a former official. Al Hayya became the main negotiator following the July assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, an act widely attributed to Israel.

A third possibility is Khaled Meshaal, a clear candidate for Hamas; however, his previous backing of a Sunni revolt against Syrian President Bashar al Assad makes this choice improbable. This incident created a divide between Hamas and its supporter, Shia-led Iran, and also hindered Meshaal’s aspirations for leadership.