Taiwan reported on Sunday that a Chinese aircraft carrier group was navigating towards the southern region of the island, coinciding with a video release from China‘s military declaring its readiness for combat. This development has raised concerns in Taipei regarding the potential for renewed Chinese military exercises. China, which considers Taiwan—governed democratically—as part of its territory, regards President Lai Ching-te as a “separatist,” and the Chinese military frequently conducts operations in the vicinity of the island.

In his national day address last week, Lai asserted that the People’s Republic of China does not have the authority to represent Taiwan. However, he also expressed the island’s willingness to collaborate with Beijing on issues such as climate change, balancing a firm stance with a conciliatory approach, which provoked a strong reaction from China. Taiwan’s defense ministry announced that a Chinese naval group, led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning, had entered waters near the Bashi Channel, a crucial passage linking the South China Sea to the Pacific and separating Taiwan from the Philippines. The ministry indicated that the carrier group was anticipated to proceed into the Western Pacific.

Taiwan’s military is closely monitoring the situation and is “exercising appropriate vigilance and response,” according to the ministry, which did not provide further details. Prior to Lai’s speech, security sources in Taiwan indicated that his remarks might trigger new military exercises from China, the last of which occurred in May as a response to Lai’s inauguration address.

On Sunday, the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army, responsible for the region encompassing Taiwan, released a propaganda video on social media titled “fully prepared and biding one’s time before battle.” The video featured fighter jets and naval vessels operating in unison, mobile missile launchers being positioned, and amphibious assault vehicles, along with a small map of Taiwan integrated into the title’s Chinese characters.

China has not dismissed the possibility of using military force to assert control over Taiwan. The Chinese defense ministry did not respond to inquiries made outside of regular office hours on Sunday, and the Taiwan Affairs Office did not provide an immediate comment.

A security official from Taiwan, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue, informed Reuters that they are closely monitoring developments around the island, as well as the reactions from Chinese media regarding Lai’s national day address. Following Lai’s speech on Thursday, Chinese media has published various commentaries and articles criticizing the speech as “confrontational” and detrimental.

Comments on Chinese social media regarding a military “battle preparation” video have included calls for “Taiwan to return to the motherland” and for “national reunification.” Another security source in Taiwan, knowledgeable about intelligence evaluations, indicated that while it remains possible that China, cautious about provoking a crisis in light of the upcoming U.S. elections, may limit its response to mere rhetoric, there is still a chance for increased military exercises.

China is currently engaged in its annual drill season, and the official noted that the military could easily label these exercises as war games specifically aimed at Taiwan. Additionally, on Saturday, China’s commerce ministry issued threats of further trade sanctions against Taiwan, which the Taiwanese government perceives as a form of economic coercion. Lai and his administration reject Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, asserting that only the people of Taiwan have the authority to determine their future. Lai has consistently extended offers for dialogue with Beijing, but these overtures have been met with rejection.