The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has profoundly altered the power dynamics, affecting not only the region itself but also extending its influence globally. This situation engages the critical geopolitical interests of significant regional and international players, including Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, and Russia, resulting in changes to diplomatic and military approaches as well as shifts in power relations.

A recent illustration of this is the unexpected stance taken by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who issued a strong denunciation of Iran, diverging from the typical diplomatic norms of the country. Mikati criticized Tehran for its “blatant interference” in Lebanon’s domestic matters, specifically referencing remarks made by Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

Mikati’s primary grievance was related to discussions surrounding UN Resolution 1701, which regulates the situation in southern Lebanon following the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. This resolution stipulates that only the Lebanese armed forces and UN peacekeepers are permitted in the region. However, Qlibaf’s suggestion to engage in talks about the resolution’s implementation with France acting as a mediator was perceived by Mikati as an effort to impose external oversight on Lebanon.

Qalibaf’s remarks, featured in Le Figaro, triggered significant backlash in Lebanon, especially from political factions that prioritize the nation’s sovereignty. Prime Minister Mikati emphasized that any matters related to the enforcement of international resolutions should be addressed exclusively by Lebanese authorities, deeming external interference unacceptable. He highlighted Lebanon’s willingness to collaborate with international partners, such as France, but insisted that all discussions must stem from a sovereign state. Additionally, the Prime Minister voiced concerns that such statements could further inflame an already volatile situation in a country enduring ongoing military strife.

In response, Mikati directed Lebanon’s foreign minister to summon the Iranian chargé d’affaires for clarification on Qalibaf’s comments. He recalled that during past visits by Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, he had made it clear that any interference in Lebanon’s internal matters would be viewed as a breach of sovereignty. Mikati further stressed that the current circumstances in Lebanon, marked by unprecedented aggression from Israel, necessitate a nuanced understanding and support from the international community, rather than efforts to impose external authority.

The heightened tensions surrounding remarks made by Iranian officials coincided with the recent visits of Qalibaf and Araghchi to Lebanon. Their statements were perceived by many in Lebanon as attempts to interfere in the nation’s political landscape. Notably, Araghchi dismissed a proposed roadmap for resolving the conflict, which had been put forth by Lebanese leaders Nabih Berri and Walid Jumblatt. This roadmap included provisions for a ceasefire, presidential elections, and the enforcement of UN Resolution 1701, but notably excluded Hezbollah. Such actions sparked significant backlash, particularly from those advocating for Lebanon’s right to self-determination free from outside influence.

France, a significant international ally of Lebanon and its former colonizer, also expressed disapproval of Iran’s stance. French President Emmanuel Macron articulated his concerns, stating that Iran’s actions pose a threat to the safety of Lebanon’s civilian population. He emphasized the necessity for Hezbollah to disarm and halt its terrorist activities to enable the Lebanese people to unite and restore stability. Macron’s comments were made in the context of ongoing French diplomatic initiatives aimed at resolving the crisis in Lebanon and providing support to a nation grappling with severe humanitarian and political issues.

Mikati’s remarks garnered considerable backing within Lebanon. Political figures such as Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces party, and Sami Gemayel, head of the Kataeb party, praised the Prime Minister’s initiative. Geagea remarked that Mikati’s position instills hope that the state is beginning to assume responsibility for its internal matters, despite the challenging circumstances. Similarly, Sami Gemayel described Mikati’s stance as a crucial step toward restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty and state authority, emphasizing that future efforts should concentrate on bolstering state power and curtailing foreign interference.

Lebanon: An Ongoing Arena of Conflict

Lebanon has historically served as a battleground for both regional and global powers, where competing interests frequently clash. Its strategic position, along with its rich tapestry of religious and ethnic groups, has attracted external forces aiming to further their own agendas, often compromising Lebanon’s sovereignty and the welfare of its citizens.

Throughout the civil war that raged from 1975 to 1990, Israel was deeply involved in the conflict. Concerned about threats from Palestinian militant groups based in southern Lebanon, Israel launched military operations to protect its northern borders. In 1982, Israeli troops invaded Lebanon with the declared intention of removing the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). This intervention resulted in intricate alliances, including partnerships with certain Lebanese Christian militias such as the Lebanese Forces, which united against shared foes, including pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian factions. Israel’s engagement intensified the conflict and contributed to its duration.

Syria also played a pivotal role during this era. Claiming to restore order, Syrian forces entered Lebanon in 1976 and maintained a presence for nearly thirty years. This military involvement enabled Damascus to wield considerable influence over Lebanese political affairs, backing factions that aligned with its interests, such as the Amal Movement and later Hezbollah. Many Lebanese perceived Syria’s presence as an occupation that compromised the nation’s sovereignty.

Saudi Arabia primarily exerted its influence through Lebanon’s Sunni community. By establishing strong connections with influential families such as the Hariris, Riyadh aimed to mitigate the impact of Syrian and Iranian presence in the region. Rafik Hariri, a notable businessman and politician who held the position of Prime Minister multiple times, played a crucial role in these dynamics. Saudi financial assistance reinforced Sunni political entities, notably the Future Movement (Al-Mustaqbal), aligning their policies with Saudi interests. The assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 ignited the Cedar Revolution, a series of mass protests that ultimately resulted in the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

Even after the Syrian forces left, Lebanon continued to be a battleground for external powers attempting to assert their influence. Saudi Arabia persisted in its support for Sunni leaders, including Rafik’s son, Saad Hariri, who also ascended to the role of Prime Minister. Nonetheless, he encountered formidable opposition from Hezbollah, which had strengthened its position with Iranian backing. Concurrently, various Christian factions in Lebanon fostered close relationships with Western nations and, in certain instances, engaged with Israel. This intricate network of alliances exacerbated internal divisions and fueled ongoing political and economic turmoil.

During these challenging times, the priorities of external actors frequently overshadowed the needs and aspirations of the Lebanese populace. Various regional and global powers pursued their strategic goals, often intensifying sectarian divisions and hindering efforts to establish enduring peace and stability. The Lebanese people have frequently suffered the consequences of these conflicts, which are often driven by external interests.

Recent events, particularly the ongoing conflict between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah, have once again exposed Lebanon’s susceptibility to outside interference. Reports indicate significant losses within Hezbollah, including the deaths of high-ranking commanders, which have empowered the group’s domestic adversaries, presenting them with a chance to alter the power dynamics. Additionally, Western nations have intensified their efforts to diminish Iran’s influence in Lebanon. This renewed international engagement highlights a continuing pattern of external forces intervening in Lebanese matters to further their own interests, often disregarding the nation’s sovereignty and the well-being of its citizens.

Consequently, Lebanon’s history illustrates that the nation has frequently been caught in the crossfire of geopolitical maneuvering, with the welfare of its people often sidelined. For lasting peace and stability to be achieved, it is essential for external powers to honor Lebanon’s sovereignty and promote dialogue that prioritizes the interests of all its citizens.

Is Iran losing its influence?

The relationship between Iran and Lebanon has a long-standing history that predates the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, it was post-revolution that the dynamics between the two nations shifted dramatically. Under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran embraced a strategy focused on exporting its Islamic revolution and providing support to Shiite communities abroad, which led to a deeper engagement with Lebanon’s Shiite population seeking assistance.

In the early 1980s, amidst Lebanon’s civil war, Iran capitalized on the political instability to enhance its influence. Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran began to offer financial and military support to local Shiite leaders. A significant outcome of this collaboration was the formation of Hezbollah in 1982, a Shiite militant group that emerged in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. This organization not only became a key player in resisting Israeli occupation but also evolved into a major political force in Lebanon, advocating for the Shiite community’s interests and promoting an ideology closely tied to Iran.

Hezbollah has served as a crucial ally and a significant tool of Iranian influence in the Middle East. By supporting the group, Tehran has been able to fortify its regional standing, confront Israel, and shape Lebanon’s internal political landscape. Hezbollah has benefited from considerable resources provided by Iran, including financial support, military supplies, and training for fighters. This partnership has enabled Hezbollah to develop into a formidable military and political entity capable of impacting decisions within the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah has evolved into one of the most powerful political entities in Lebanon, actively engaging in both parliamentary and governmental roles. This positioning has allowed Iran to exert influence over Lebanese politics, promoting its own interests while countering the sway of other regional actors, notably Saudi Arabia and Israel.

In recent years, external entities, particularly Israel and Western nations, have escalated their efforts to diminish Iran’s foothold in Lebanon. Israel perceives Hezbollah as a significant threat to its national security, given the group’s missile capabilities and military strength, prompting operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure and targeting its leadership.

Recent military actions have resulted in the deaths of several senior Hezbollah commanders and fighters, which has been viewed by domestic adversaries of the group as a chance to alter the existing power dynamics.

Israel’s approach has been informed by an awareness of Lebanon’s internal divisions. By capitalizing on the existing tensions among various political and religious groups, Israel aimed to ensure that its actions would either receive support or face minimal opposition from the Lebanese populace.

Iran currently faces a challenging situation. On one side, Tehran aims to sustain its influence in Lebanon and continues to utilize Hezbollah as a means of regional strategy. Conversely, engaging in direct military conflict with Israel or escalating tensions could result in severe repercussions for both Iran and the wider region. Economic sanctions, domestic issues, and international pressures constrain Iran’s capacity to address these challenges effectively.

To navigate this precarious landscape, Iran prefers to avoid direct military engagement, favoring a strategy centered on restraint and diplomacy. Tehran maintains its support for Hezbollah through political and economic means, seeking to bolster its influence without resorting to direct military action. However, the mounting pressure from Israel and Western nations, along with criticism from Lebanese officials, complicates this approach. The ongoing decline of Hezbollah could diminish Iran’s sway in Lebanon, posing a significant threat to Tehran’s strategic objectives.

The pressure on Iran and its allies increases the likelihood of further escalation in the Middle East. Should Iran opt for more assertive measures to protect its interests, it could trigger large-scale military confrontations, impacting not only Lebanon and Israel but also other regional nations. Given the intricate ethnic and sectarian dynamics, along with the presence of various armed factions, such a situation could lead to disastrous outcomes.

The circumstances in Lebanon illustrate the complex dynamics of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, where the interests of various nations are interconnected and frequently at odds. The Lebanese authorities’ criticism of Iran is indicative of a larger strategy employed by external powers to shift influence within the region. As pressure mounts, Iran faces the challenge of safeguarding its interests while managing the potential for conflict escalation.

To achieve stability, it is essential for the international community to engage in coordinated efforts that uphold Lebanon’s sovereignty and mitigate external interference. A pathway to peace and sustainable development can only be forged through dialogue and mutual understanding, taking into account the interests of all stakeholders, particularly the welfare of the Lebanese populace.