World leaders are set to convene in South America this month for two significant summits, with a prevailing focus on the implications of  Trump 2.0. he first event will take place in Peru, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum is scheduled for November 13-15, followed by the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brazil on November 18-19. This month is particularly busy for global diplomacy, also featuring the COP29 climate change conference in Azerbaijan.

For leaders from the Asia-Pacific region, the APEC meeting will mark their first assembly since the U.S. presidential election on November 5, which resulted in a Republican victory for Trump, who has indicated significant policy changes regarding trade tariffs and climate initiatives.

The agenda for the forum, hosted by resource-rich Peru, will focus on financing the energy transition, regulating emerging technologies, formalizing economies, and enhancing maritime logistics.

However, diplomats from the 21-member APEC bloc have expressed concerns that Trump’s commitment to impose trade barriers on U.S. partners will dominate discussions. APEC members, which include countries from Canada to Thailand, represent nearly half of global trade.

A senior diplomat from an APEC member country, speaking anonymously, indicated that the primary focus will be on “what does Trump 2.0 look like.” Concerns have been raised among member nations regarding Trump’s stringent stance on China, the imposition of tariffs, and the impact of the dollar’s strength on global currencies. During his first term, the U.S. president-elect frequently criticized the rising dollar, as it diminished the competitiveness of American goods in international markets.

Leaders will also be assessing how to manage new relationships following a significant election year in 2024. New leaders from Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and Vietnam are set to attend the summit in Peru.

Erin Murphy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted, “Much of this will serve as an opportunity for major leaders to familiarize themselves with one another. The emphasis will shift away from the APEC agenda to how we can collaborate in the evolving global landscape next year.”

Trump and trade war

In terms of trade relations, Trump has suggested implementing a blanket 10% import tariff on all goods entering the U.S., with even steeper tariffs on Chinese imports. The ongoing rivalry between Washington and Beijing has placed many APEC nations in a challenging position in recent years.

Australia, aiming to broaden its trade connections throughout Southeast Asia, has expressed its commitment to supporting “free and fair” multilateral trade during the summit.

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to visit Lima, and Trump’s transition team is likely to send representatives as well. However, diplomats believe Biden’s influence will be limited due to Trump’s decisive electoral victory.

Any concessions made by Biden would be viewed with skepticism, particularly given the potential for significant policy shifts under Trump, according to a senior diplomat in South America.

Peru’s hosts are eager to revive a previous APEC initiative aimed at creating a free trade area across the Asia-Pacific, as stated by Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer. However, analysts consider this endeavor unlikely to succeed without backing from the United States.

Delegates noted that APEC could serve as a platform for future environmental announcements, providing signals to negotiators at COP29 and the G20. Trump has already indicated his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the pivotal 2015 Paris climate agreement, which diminishes the prospects for climate-related agreements.

Executives from Exxon Mobil, TikTok, and JPMorgan Chase are set to speak to delegates, alongside leaders from 12 nations, including China’s President Xi Jinping.

For President Xi, APEC represents his first visit to Latin America since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. He is also expected to inaugurate a Chinese-built mega port along the Peruvian coast.

Xi is anticipated to engage in a diplomatic push at APEC, as several analysts based in China have informed Reuters, aiming to strengthen or enhance relations with countries like South Korea and Japan, which may have concerns about a Trump-led United States.

“This presents a valuable opportunity for Xi to make an appearance, particularly in light of the perceived instability in the U.S.,” Murphy remarked.