After 13 years of civil conflict, Syria‘s opposition militias identified a chance to weaken President Bashar al-Assad‘s hold on power. Approximately six months ago, they shared plans for a significant offensive with Turkey and believed they had received its implicit endorsement, according to two informed sources.

The operation, which commenced just two weeks ago, achieved its initial objective of capturing Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, much faster than anticipated. Within a week, the rebel coalition advanced to Damascus, ultimately ending five decades of Assad family dominance.

This rapid progress was facilitated by a unique convergence of favorable conditions for the anti-Assad forces: the Syrian army was demoralized and fatigued; key allies Iran and Hezbollah were significantly weakened due to their conflicts with Israel; and Russia, another crucial military supporter, was preoccupied and losing interest in the situation.

The rebels understood that they could not proceed without first informing Turkey, a principal supporter of the Syrian opposition since the conflict began, as noted by a regional diplomat and a member of the Syrian opposition.

Turkey maintains a military presence in northwest Syria and supports certain rebel factions, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), although it views the leading group in the alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as a terrorist organization. The audacious strategy was conceived by HTS and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, according to the diplomat.

Due to his past connections with al-Qaeda, Golani is classified as a terrorist by the United States, Europe, and Turkey. Nevertheless, over the last decade, HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, has sought to reshape its image while establishing a quasi-governmental authority in Idlib, where experts indicate it has imposed taxes on both commercial activities and the local populace.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s administration, which reached an agreement with Russia in 2020 to reduce hostilities in northwestern Syria, has consistently opposed a significant rebel offensive, concerned that it could trigger a new influx of refugees at its border.

However, sources indicate that the rebels detected a shift in Ankara’s position towards Assad earlier this year, following his rejection of Erdogan’s repeated attempts to promote a political resolution to the ongoing military deadlock. This stalemate has resulted in Syria being divided between the regime and various rebel factions, each supported by different foreign entities. A source from the Syrian opposition noted that the rebels had shared their operational plans with Turkey after Ankara’s efforts to engage with Assad proved unsuccessful. The underlying message was clear: “The previous approach has not yielded results for years—consider our proposal instead. You need not take any action, just refrain from intervening.”

Reuters could not ascertain the precise details of these communications. Hadi Al-Bahra, the leader of the internationally recognized Syrian opposition abroad, informed Reuters last week that HTS and SNA had conducted “limited” joint planning prior to the operation, agreeing to “cooperate rather than clash.” He also mentioned that Turkey’s military was aware of the discussions and activities of the armed groups.

During a statement in Doha on Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged that Erdogan’s recent outreach to Assad had not succeeded and that Turkey “anticipated something was on the horizon.” Conversely, Turkey’s Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz clarified at a Middle Eastern affairs conference in Bahrain that Ankara was not behind the offensive and had not granted its approval, expressing concerns about potential instability. Turkey’s foreign and defense ministries did not directly address inquiries regarding any understanding between HTS and Ankara concerning the Aleppo operation. In response to questions about Turkey’s knowledge of battlefield preparations, a Turkish official stated that HTS “does not take orders or receive direction from us, nor do they coordinate their operations with us.”

The official indicated that it would be inaccurate to assert that the operation in Aleppo was conducted with Turkey’s endorsement or approval. The Turkish intelligence agency, MIT, did not provide an immediate response to a request for comment. Reuters was also unable to contact a representative for HTS.

The rebels launched their attack at a time when Assad was particularly vulnerable. His military allies, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah from Lebanon, were preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere and could not deploy the decisive firepower that had supported him for years. Syria’s weakened armed forces were unable to mount a defense. A regime source informed Reuters that tanks and aircraft were left without fuel due to corruption and looting, highlighting the extent to which the Syrian state had deteriorated.

Over the past two years, the morale within the army had significantly declined, according to the source, who requested anonymity due to concerns about potential repercussions. Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a think tank focused on the Middle East, noted that the coalition led by HTS was more robust and cohesive than any previous rebel group throughout the conflict, attributing much of this to the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani. However, he emphasized that the regime’s frailty was the critical factor. “After their loss in Aleppo, regime forces never fully recovered, and as the rebels made further advances, Assad’s army continued to weaken,” he stated.

The speed of the rebel advances was unexpected, with Hama being seized on December 5 and Homs falling around the same time that government forces lost control of Damascus. “There was a chance for change, but no one anticipated the regime would collapse so quickly. Everyone expected some resistance,” remarked Bassam Al-Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, a minor opposition group operating from outside Syria.

A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, indicated that while Washington was aware of Turkey’s general support for the rebels, it had not received any information regarding Turkish approval for the offensive in Aleppo. The White House National Security Council did not provide an immediate response to inquiries about Turkey’s involvement.

On Sunday, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stated that Russia’s withdrawal of support for Assad contributed to his downfall, asserting that Moscow should never have backed him initially and subsequently lost interest due to the conflict in Ukraine, which he believed should not have occurred.

Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted his country’s efforts in diminishing Hezbollah’s influence, noting that sources informed Reuters the group had withdrawn its remaining troops from Syria on Saturday.

Gaza Conflict Implications

Sources knowledgeable about Hezbollah’s deployments indicated that the Iran-backed organization, which had supported Assad at the war’s outset, had already pulled many of its elite fighters from Syria over the past year to assist in its confrontations with Israel—a conflict that has escalated due to the ongoing Gaza war.

Israel inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah, particularly following an offensive launched in September that resulted in the deaths of the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with numerous commanders and fighters. The rebel offensive in Syria commenced concurrently with the implementation of a ceasefire in the Lebanon conflict on November 27. Sources close to Hezbollah indicated that the group was reluctant to engage in large-scale battles in Syria, as it aimed to embark on a lengthy recovery process from the substantial losses it had sustained.

For the rebel coalition, Hezbollah’s withdrawal created a crucial opportunity. A source from the Syrian opposition remarked, “We simply sought a fair confrontation with the regime.” The potential downfall of Assad represents a significant setback for Iranian influence in the Middle East, occurring shortly after the death of Nasrallah and the damage inflicted on Hezbollah by Israel.

Conversely, Turkey has emerged as the most influential external actor in Syria, with troops deployed on the ground and connections to rebel leaders. Turkey’s goals include not only facilitating the return of Syrian refugees but also limiting the power of Syrian Kurdish groups that control extensive regions in northeast Syria and receive U.S. support, which Ankara classifies as terrorist organizations.

During the initial offensive, the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) captured large areas, including the city of Tel Refaat, from U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. A Turkish security source reported that the rebels advanced into the northern city of Manbij after once again pushing back the Kurdish fighters. “Turkey is the primary external beneficiary in this situation. Erdogan has proven to be on the favorable side of history, as his proxies in Syria have emerged victorious,” stated Birol Baskan, a political scientist based in Turkey and a former non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.